Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgWhat now? Gaston will be king, but probably very weak, and men like
Condé, Conti, Turenne, the Duc de Bouillon, even the Cardinal de Retz,
will compete for power - and that will also mean the marriage with
Anne, the Duchess of Montpensier.
Oh! Fun! Can she play the part of Margaret of Anjou in this particular
brand of the War of the Roses? Louis hated her living guts, but she
seems to have the begininngs of a reasonably talented person, unlike
her husband.
Well, her first request for royal permission to marry her OTL husband
came in 1670, apparently. So I think we are safe to assume that this
relationship will be butterflied away.
Yeah; from your original post, I misconstrued you to mean Anne marrying
Gaston, due to some rather unfortunate kind of brainfart.
That would be rather gross, what with him being her father, and all.
Post by L***@gmail.comShe does seem like a canny sort of Princess Royale.
Post by JörgWikipedia says that she even
thought of marrying the Prince of Wales (Charles II). Between 1652 and
1662, that might be at least possible. But probably too much fun, even
if Salic Law bars Charles (if he is *restored) from claiming the throne
of France more directly than he did anyway by being King of England.
Quite. I think, in her position, she's strongly resist being married to
a future sovereign of a foreign state or a French noble. So, we're
looking at second or third brothers of mid-level kingdoms, preferably
Catholic.
Charles was apparently not very attracted to her...as I recall, he
might have married her anyway, but he was too risky a proposition in
the 1650s. By 1660, she was getting on in years (already 33). In this
situation, as the daughter of the King, she'll be even more important
in the 1650s than OTL. But after 1660 she becomes less important when
Condé presumably becomes king.
But there is still her immense personal wealth. This, combined with her
position of Fille de France, makes her still an influential factor; I
think.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comOffhand, I can't think of anyone, and googling isn't helping too much.
Maximilian might have some kids; the House of Savoy will spit before
marrying France. Some middling French nobleman who's totally stinking
stupid mght be useful.
Maximilian? The House of Savoy married France a lot. Louis XIII's
sister married into the House of Savoy. Monsieur's second daughter
also married into the House of Savoy (it is through that marriage that
the current Jacobite claim descends). Both of Monseigneur's sons
married Savoy princesses. Louis XVI's brothers both married Savoy
princesses, and his sister married a Savoy prince. Savoy/Bourbon was
one of the most common matings in the period under discussion, I think.
Post by L***@gmail.comCould she break down Salic Law? Not that Dad's the sharpest knife in
the drawer, but a cabal of smarter nobles plus Queen Anne might be able
to convince France that in order to survive the assault launched by ___
they need to band together around the young child, Louis Gaston, blah
blah.
That seems completely crazy when the alternate heir is, er, France's
greatest military hero. (or, possibly *second* greatest military hero.
Nonetheless, highly unlikely while Condé is available). Even if no
Condé, I think the last phase of the wars of religion proves that the
Salic Law was really strong in France. People really felt like this
was the only proper order of succession.
I think the SL will win out, ultimately, but there is the distinct
possibility of someone favoring Anne still challenging it, leading to
more trouble (politically, diplomatically if she has married abroad,
perhaps also militarily) once Gaston dies. Especially if there is no
son from the second marriage.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgHm, strange butterfly: The Brits don't gain Bombay as dowry from
Portugal.
Mahmm. I dunno; Charles II might still get the Portugese wife, at least
temporarily. Or, perhaps, be harbored their via the House of Savoy, and
thus marry her all the same.
? Is there a word missing here.
Post by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgSee above. A strong Reine Anne would be very inetresting, but I guess
many very powerful nobles and princes of the royal blood would try to
marry her - by a French version of rough wooing, if necessary.
Given her OTL performance, she might survive on her own two badass
feet. But getting her to dodge through the marriage market is going to
be harder. Are there any male Bourbon cousins outside of France she can
marry that flow from a male-descent line?
Outside, I don´t know. Perhaps we should widen it it to "Capetian".
Inside France, there is Conti available, as you noted yourself.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgI am afraid that even the legitimized childern won't count much unless
they head a real superior army. Probably some Bourbon branch beyond
Henri's lines will claim the top spot.
Maybe; OTOH, marrying Anne to that middling Duc could get us a
legitimist heir that can be a sort-of compromise candidate to bypass
Salic Law.
Post by Jörg"Upon the accession to France's throne of Henry IV de Bourbon in 1589,
his first cousin-once-removed Henry, Prince of Condé (1588-1646),
was heir presumptive to the crown until 1601. [...] from 1589 to 1709
the Princes of Condé coincidentally held the rank at court of Premier
Prince du Sang Royal (First Prince of the Blood Royal), [...]"
So we can probably assume that Louis II Duc de Bourbon, "the Great
Condé" (as the then ruling eldest son of the Prince Henry mentioned
above) will claim to be the king once Gaston dies sonless. I can't say
whether his OTL death in 1660 will happen another time in this TL.
Probably.
Wiki says "The Great Conde" died in 1686.
I believe that it is Gaston's OTL 1660 death that is being referred to.
Yes, that's what I meant.
Post by j***@gmail.comI will, however, note another possibility - Gaston in OTL married a
second time, to a princess of lorraine. They had children, several.
The second youngest was a son, Jean Gaston, born in 1650. He died in
infancy in 1652, but butterflies might allow him to survive. Their
last child was born in 1652. It was a daughter, but she survived to
adulthood. So it's possible that Gaston will have a son to succeed
him, either by making Jean Gaston live, or by making that youngest
child a son. That, it seems to me, works better for a "weak France"
model than Condé becoming king - you get 8 years of weak child king
Louis XIV, than 9 years of weak adult king Gaston, then at least
another 10 years or so of a child king.
BTW, looking at the older daughters - they were married into the house
of Guise, the house of medici in Tuscany and to the house of Savoy.The
last marriage was to (Wikipedia)
"Charles Emmanuel II (June 20, 1634 - June 12, 1675) was the Duke of
Savoy from 1638 to 1675 and under regency of his mother Christine Marie
of France until 1663."
You (John) mention him further down, and especially with his mother, he
does seem another possible match for Anne.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgOne nice prerequisite for trouble: Condé cannot marry Anne to solidify
his claim, since he is married since he is married since 1641, to a
niece of Richelieu. She has born him a son in 1443, who is 16 years
younger than Anne, so marrying them to each other seems out, as well.
Condé's younger brother Conti is, however, available. I'm not sure if
Condé would want to make that match, though.
But might Gaston want to make it, *if* Condé still leaves for Spain
after alienating most other frondeurs? The Parlement de Paris might be
convinced to dig up some statute that allows banning Condé and his
infant son from the inheritance, so making Conti the heir presumptive
and the son-in-law of the king.
If this happens (is it chronologically possible?) before Reine
Marguerite (the Lorraine wife) has her final son (or Jean Gaston
unexpectedly survives), we might have a nice three-way conflict once
Gaston dies - Condé claiming his exclusion is void, Conti stressing
*his* claim and the (admittedly anti-Salic) one of his wife and of
course the claim of the infant Dauphin. I guess that in the "born in
1652" variant both other parties will claim wild stuff about a
stillborn son being exchanged etc., like the accusations regarding
James III/VIII. IOW, le Dauphin n'est pas le vrai Dauphin.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comAnd meanwhile, Conde and Anne were apparently going at it OTL daggers
drawn during and after the Fronde. In the ATL, I see no reason for this
to be substantially better; if he is in fact heir, it may be rather
worse. She may end up conspiring against him, and he against her.
Well, I count on this. France will be in some trouble.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comHe may still well be in exile in Spain during this era, though he may
return with greater haste, given his frusteration there and his higher
rank as heir to the throne. He may still end up at the Battle of the
Dunes, however, and the Peace of the Pyrenees is still a decade-ish
after your PoD.
I don't believe Condé went into exile until after the proposed POD.
So it's possible he'll never go into exile. it'll depend on how he
gets along with the new king, I should imagine, and also on whether or
not he's the heir-presumptive.
I agree that there is no definite course of events. I *am* under the
impression that Condé was excellent at alienating people and if the
new king does not award him the honors and importance he expects to get
...
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comOh, I think William of Orange would make off with that, or at least,
some of it.
Sounds likely, *if* he ever comes to power (he will exist, being born
in November 1650). With Louis XIV dead, there will not even be vaguely
the events that led France to attack the Dutch in 1672. So De Witt
might stay in power until his resigantion or natural death, whereas
Willem van Oranje, het kind van state, may lead a quiet private life
with a lover of his choice.
Depends; I can't see Conde, made king, being a non-threat to the
Netherlands.
Well, he's a threat to the *Spanish* Netherlands, and this will incur
Dutch opposition. But I've always felt that the 1672 "crush the Dutch"
campaign had some weird psychological causes on Louis XIV's part.
Technically, it was a desire for revenge since the Dutch had stopped
his march to triumph during the War of Devolution (he had already
agreed with Austria on a later partition of the Spanish empire and
secured his claims on the SNL, the FrancheComté and Naples-Sicily when
the Dutch-English-Swedish triple alliance blocked that). But the
vehemency seems to have been based inside the Sun King's mind, I agree.
Note that nothing similar to the War of Devolution will happen in this
TL. I do not even know whom Maria Teresa of Spain might be married to.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by Jörg(Mary "II" won't be born in this TL, and
the Orange-Stuart marriage is highly contingent of the Anglo-Dutch
relations.)
Hmm. Maybe; I'm less certain than you. But the whole fun intercetion of
Stuarts and Europe needs to be definatively sorted out for other things
to be effectively asserted as true or false here.
Yes.
And that of course would lead to a discussion of the possible
alternatives to the style of Restoration he had OTL, a topic not
unheard of here in shwi.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgSpain? Portugal? Perhaps even Italy? OTOH, the fate of Chrales II is
highly chance-driven. Hm, Worcester is in 1651. After his flight from
England, CII might not even return to France if there is serious
trouble brewing. He might go (almost) directly to The Hague (or to
Breda) and take his mother with him. Or not. Henrietta and James staying
in France, the latter fighting in the wars among the nobles has a
certain charme, too.
Agreed; Charles II grows up under the protection of his sister, while
Mommy, Henrietta, and James fight it out in France, siding with Anne
against Conde...or trying to marry James and Henrietta to Anne and
Conde...
Charles II was already rather grown up in 1651 - he was 21 years old,
and, er, older than his sister.
Yes. The suggested double marriage of the houses of Bourbon and Stuart
sounds like an interesting project to generate more trouble for France
*and* England.
Post by j***@gmail.comI do wonder if Gaston is going to be
quite the cipher that you guys all anticipate him being. Even if
Mazarin is gone (as is likely), Gaston will have the bureaucracy that
Richelieu and Mazarin built to work with, and there are presumably some
effective civil servants who will be loyally serving the crown. I
think Gaston's brother's reign demonstrates that you don't need a
competent king to have a competent reign. Obviously the situation will
be difficult, especially if the king can't control his crazy daughter,
but I think he has advantages that you have not considered. Above all,
he is an adult king. There is no more regency, and no more child king,
and no more hated favorite, and no more hated foreign regent. It's one
thing to rise up against a foreign regent and her foreign
favorite/lover. It's quite another to rise up against the lawful,
adult king. Even if Gaston is a dunce, he'll have the full power of
the state behind him, and that's not nothing.
I concede that he has something, all right. But still, the bureaucracy
is not *that* entrenched yet, not if Gaston is too weak to avoid making
concession to his co-frondeurs. There might be an continued weakening
of the mid- and low-level nobility (and especially the nobleese de
robe), but a strengthening of the top-level ones, those controlling
entire provinces.
Plus, I think we can assume that he will have the support of Turenne -
I see nothing to indicate that this great general will oppose a
rightful King Gaston unless the latter does really stupid things.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comI think the Princess of Orange might be able to do something for her
brother, if not her Papist mother, alliances to the English republic
aside. Monck is still around, and one thing should lead to another,
more or less.
The Princess was rather unpopular in the Netherlands, AFAIK.
Ah, well. Her reputation might sustain her brother's arrival, if not
that of her Papist mother.
I believe that Mary was mostly living in Breda, an enclave in the south
of the United Provinces which were personal property of the Oranges.
This should be fairly safe, whatever the political situation over in
Holland.
Charles II lived also mostly in Breda, AFAIK. I thought of The Haqgue
mainly because he hat met Lucy Walter there, I guess. (But Monmouth was
born in Rotterdam, IIRC.)
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgThe Dutch Golden Age is not yet over, but they are much too weak
militarily.
Quite; but they're still stronger than Spain in this era, mas o menos.
Which means a larger Dutch Republic, including OTL's Belgium...
Not under De Witt, I think. Catholic peasants and rivalling Flemish
merchants - what are they good for? But the Dutch might take additional
Spanish colonial possessions and keep others like New Amsterdam.
Interesting; say on, good sir, say on.
The Dutch have just ended their war with Spain. Why start it again
when Spain looks basically helpless? The existence of the Spanish
Netherlands is the best protection against France, at any rate.
I agree, my bad. During the 1650s, there is no one to fight for the
Dutch but the English, and I do not see how King Gaston will affect
that. I guess it depends a bit on his relation to the Cromwell regime,
but not overly much. In this time France cannot threaten England nor
the Netherlands.
BTW, how did Gaston feel about the execution of Charles I and what did
he think about Charles II? Is there any indacation that he might have
tried to implement an active anti-Cromwell policy?
Since I just realize that this might really influence the events of the
French-Spanish War - battle of the Dunes and all that, perhaps even
changing the Anglo-Spanish War of 1654 into a Anglo-French one.
(Someone should heavily edit the wikipedia article "Treaty of the
Pyrenees". It makes it look like a local Catalan event, which is not
simply not right, regardless of the Roussillon changing hands.)
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comAnd I agree re Belgium, at least in part, as it might serve as a useful
buffer against expanding French whatever.
But there will be much less expanding France. The regents, at any
rate, want peace, and are not going to attack poor helpless Spain. If
the Oranges come back, all bets are off, though.
Of course, but I still would say the States' Party of De Witt has much
better chances of survival in this TL.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comWilliam III spends his young life in the field against a weak and
divided France, only to be made King of England. Hmm. Due to
butterflies, the Protestand Union becomes the 800 pound gorilla in
Western Europe.
This can't be good
It is also highly unlikely, I think.
I suppose; but it'd give us a Northern European counterpart to the
Hapsburgs, which would be interesting in a Franceless scenario...
Oh, of course, it would be fun.
"My name is De Vlaming, Jan de Vlaming"
His opponent gasped. De Vlaming, better known as 'Agent Orange', the
top spy of the Protestant Alliance!
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgBrandenburg is still in its infancy.
Verily, but rising fast. I can't see what would stop it from continuing
to grow through this era. Though without Louis XIV, we don't get the
War of Spanish Succession, but Queen Anne might find her own way to
knit France together, as Regent for her adorable sons and her
weak-willed husband, who's mind is "too delicate for this world"
Might happen. It would be interesting just to see who the husband might
be ...
John Kenney, pick up the White Courtesy Phone...
Er. There's any number of possibilities. If Condé is dominant, it's
likely she'll be married off to a foreigner. Charles Emmanuel II of
Savoy (7 years younger than her) seems a possibility. Gaston has
connections to the Lorraines, but I don't think there's any Lorraines
of the right age.
But, btw, his brother-in-law, Charles IV, the Duke of Lorraine has been
fighting for Spain (and his territory occupied by France) since the
1640s. In OTL 1654 he was arrested by them and released in 1659, cannot
if this would happen at all in this TL.
Ferdinand Maria of Bavaria is 9 years younger.
Post by j***@gmail.comEmperor Ferdinand III's eldest son (the early dying Ferdinand IV) is 6
years younger.
Might he be a possible candidate for Maria Teresa of Spain, who cannot
marry Louis XIV in this TL?
Post by j***@gmail.comThere's no Spanish candidates - Philip IV's son by his
first marriage has already died, and he's already remarried by the time
of the POD. That about exhausts the main Catholic families, besides
the Bourbons themselves (in that case, Armand of Conti, Condé's
brother, seems the only plausible option, and is rather unlikely).
There's also minor Italian dynasties (Este, Gonzaga, Farnese, Medici),
but that seems as though it would be considered low for the eldest
daughter of the Most Christian King. If she's married off to a
foreigner, she's out of the running in France. I think, all things
considered, the Savoy marriage seems most likely.
Post by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgTime is an important factor, I think. Anne is just 24 in 1651, and for
some years her father Gaston weill hold the title of king. If he is as
ineffectual as OTL, she might not inherit much to work with, or be sold
by her father to the highest bidder. Plus, Condé will definitely deny
that she has any right to inherit the title at all.
A fair point to mull on; but she might be able to outmanoever Daddy,
given her OTL Fronde performance v. his. Is she cold and canny enough
for it?
She doesn't have any right to inherit the title at all, if the title
we're referring to is "Queen of France." It's not going to happen.
The Salic Law is settled - the Guises couldn't overturn it in the
1590s, and Anne of Montpensier won't be able to overturn it in the
1650s, especially when her opponent is as formidable as Condé. Note
that the Parlements will be entirely against her, as well, which is not
a good place to be. Her father is unlikely to be particularly
I guess there is a line missing her.
Post by j***@gmail.comPost by L***@gmail.comPost by JörgI very much suspect that Gaston will make concessions to the mighty
nobles (and other parties) that will undo most of the works of
Richelieu and Mazarin.
Probably, yeah. If she, or she and Conde can pick up the peices,
somehow, though
As I said above, I'm not so sure. Gaston's positions as
heir-presumptive and royal uncle are not necessarily his positions as
king. He's a weak man, and once he becomes king he'll be surrounded by
the people who worked for his brother and nephew. It's these types who
will dominate the administration, and they won't be inclined to destroy
their own power. For a comparable example, note that the
administrators who worked for Catherine de Medici continued under Henry
IV, and all the way through to the early years of Louis XIII.
I agree basically, but I think two rather important individuals,
Fouquet and Colbert are too closely associated with the camp of Anne of
Austria and Mazarin too survive politically.
BTW, what do you think of my vague idea of the ambitious Cardinal de
Retz getting the post of chief minister?
Thanks for replying,
Jörg