Bruce Munro
2004-06-24 22:15:05 UTC
Just looking at the "AH of Communism" and I noted people were
comparing the possible trajectory of a non-Communist Russia with
Russia post soviet collapse. I'm wondering what people's thoughts are
on the probablility of an economic collapse as severe as that we have
seen OTL.
Some will say that the collapse has to do with the incompetence of the
transition to capitalism and the breakup of the united Union, but OTOH
the Soviet economy was beginning to shrink _before_ the breakup.
(There's also the example of North Korea, but that may not be
equivalent: after all, it was subsidized by the USSR before 1991. Or
Belorus, but Belorus doesn't have much in the way of local resources).
So just how fragile was the Soviet sytem at the time of Gorbachev
coming to power? Would any leader which managed to hold the Soviet
Union together, by whatever level of force needed, have presided over
an economic slide as bad or worse as happened OTL?
A Chinese-style economic reform probably isn't possible: the Soviet
system was just too extensive, too deeply rooted and
institutionalized, for the sort of realtively free-wheeling reforms
that could take in a mostly peasant China only 30 years after the move
to collectivism. Could a more limited "capitalization" of the economy
produce enough results to at least slow the decline a bit?
Then there's a return to full Stalinism, which might manage to make
some infrastructural reforms by working a few million people to death:
too many people in positions of power would be opposed to such
concentration of power, though, so that's out. Is the Soviet
government strong enough to maintain control of the country in the
face of serious economic slide? Castro managed to, but he has some
local legitimacy: the Kims managed it, but they rule an ethnically and
culturally homogeonous state run like a cult.
Is the Soviet government by 1984 _capable_ of exerting enough force to
keep control in the face of collapsing living standards, food
shortages, etc? (It may be noted that in the case of OTL, severe drops
in living standard have not led to rebellion within Russia. But
post-1991, what would they revolt _against_ and _for_? Communism if
restored doesn't work: and disasters brought about by screwups of
capitalism in the post-Socialist era have sort of a "it's just natural
forces, nobody's at fault" aura about thing which leads to a certain
degree of helplessness. At least people living under a decaying
communism have a clear notion of what they're rebelling in favor of.)
To put it another way: for any likely post-1984 Soviet leadership, is
the present outcome about as good as we were likely to get? (I mean
_economically_ here. Having an autocratic, nuclear-armed USSR still in
being probably is an inferior income in many ways even if they _have_
managed to keep ahead of the Mexicans economically.)
Bruce Munro
comparing the possible trajectory of a non-Communist Russia with
Russia post soviet collapse. I'm wondering what people's thoughts are
on the probablility of an economic collapse as severe as that we have
seen OTL.
Some will say that the collapse has to do with the incompetence of the
transition to capitalism and the breakup of the united Union, but OTOH
the Soviet economy was beginning to shrink _before_ the breakup.
(There's also the example of North Korea, but that may not be
equivalent: after all, it was subsidized by the USSR before 1991. Or
Belorus, but Belorus doesn't have much in the way of local resources).
So just how fragile was the Soviet sytem at the time of Gorbachev
coming to power? Would any leader which managed to hold the Soviet
Union together, by whatever level of force needed, have presided over
an economic slide as bad or worse as happened OTL?
A Chinese-style economic reform probably isn't possible: the Soviet
system was just too extensive, too deeply rooted and
institutionalized, for the sort of realtively free-wheeling reforms
that could take in a mostly peasant China only 30 years after the move
to collectivism. Could a more limited "capitalization" of the economy
produce enough results to at least slow the decline a bit?
Then there's a return to full Stalinism, which might manage to make
some infrastructural reforms by working a few million people to death:
too many people in positions of power would be opposed to such
concentration of power, though, so that's out. Is the Soviet
government strong enough to maintain control of the country in the
face of serious economic slide? Castro managed to, but he has some
local legitimacy: the Kims managed it, but they rule an ethnically and
culturally homogeonous state run like a cult.
Is the Soviet government by 1984 _capable_ of exerting enough force to
keep control in the face of collapsing living standards, food
shortages, etc? (It may be noted that in the case of OTL, severe drops
in living standard have not led to rebellion within Russia. But
post-1991, what would they revolt _against_ and _for_? Communism if
restored doesn't work: and disasters brought about by screwups of
capitalism in the post-Socialist era have sort of a "it's just natural
forces, nobody's at fault" aura about thing which leads to a certain
degree of helplessness. At least people living under a decaying
communism have a clear notion of what they're rebelling in favor of.)
To put it another way: for any likely post-1984 Soviet leadership, is
the present outcome about as good as we were likely to get? (I mean
_economically_ here. Having an autocratic, nuclear-armed USSR still in
being probably is an inferior income in many ways even if they _have_
managed to keep ahead of the Mexicans economically.)
Bruce Munro