WolfBear
2015-03-21 22:48:34 UTC
I was inspired to create this scenario and thread by one of Rich Rostrom's comments on another thread on a similar topic to this one.
Anyway, here is the scenario:
Due to France keeping its strategic reserve at Rheims (as per the original plan) instead of sending it to the Low Countries, the German attack through the Ardennes fails in 1940. Thus, the Manstein Plan fails and the Germans become bogged down in Belgium and in northern France. In 1941-1942, the French and British very slowly begin to advance in Belgium and in northern France (they obviously don't reach the Siegfried Line yet, though), but with an enormous number of French and British military deaths and casualties; meanwhile, during this time, Germany is rapidly continuing its work on the Siegfried Line and also begins the Holocaust in the areas which are under its control in an effort to kill as many Jews as it can. In 1942 or 1943, opponents of Hitler and the Nazis in the German military and elsewhere successfully stage a coup against Hitler and the Nazis (they waited until 1942 or 1943 to do this in order to reduce the risk that they will get accused of "stabbing Germany in the back"; likewise, they wanted to make sure that Hitler genuinely ran out of luck by now).
Afterwards, these successful coup plotters immediately stop the Holocaust and secretly offer Britain and France a peace deal: There would be a status quo ante bellum in the West, a restoration of Germany's 1914 borders in the East, and a German retention of both Austria and the Sudetenland (as well as a German retention of both its Czech and its Slovak puppet states); also, Germany would allow the restoration of an independent Polish state on the parts of Poland which are beyond Germany's 1914 borders and which are currently occupied by Germany. Both Britain and France reject this German peace deal and instead decide to continue fighting.
In response to this, the new, non-Nazi German government decides to "play hardball" with Britain and France by unilaterally withdrawing to Germany's 1914 borders in the east; in turn, this causes Stalin to occupy the parts of Poland which Germany withdrew from and to create a pro-Soviet Polish puppet state there. Afterwards, the new German government once again offers Britain and France the very same peace deal which they have previously rejected (well, other than the part about a restoration of a genuinely independent Poland), hoping that Britain and France would reconsider this offer now that a genuinely independent Poland is impossible to restore (Stalin's new Polish puppet state is certainly not genuinely independent).
Now--do Britain and France reconsider and accept this German peace deal, or do they decide to endure an additional massive number of (British and French) military deaths and casualties in order to get Germany to withdraw back to its pre-World War II borders in the east?
Remember--Britain and France will probably eventually defeat Germany in this scenario, but it will require an even greater number of military deaths and casualties on their part and any areas which Germany will withdraw from will simply be occupied by the Soviet Union afterwards. Are Britain and France genuinely willing to endure several hundred thousand or more additional military deaths on their side just so that Stalin's puppet Polish state, rather than Germany, will be the one who is controlling Danzig, the Polish Corridor, Posen, and eastern Upper Silesia? Or are Britain and France likely to simply say "Screw it!" in this scenario and accept this German peace deal (possibly with a clause which will open the door to a re-negotiation of Germany's border with Poland if/after Poland ever breaks free from Soviet control/rule (in order for Britain and France to "save face" in front of both their public and the Polish public who is now living under Soviet control/rule))?
Thoughts on this? And Yes, Britain and France really do appear to be stuck between a rock and a hard place in this scenario. :(
Also--to clarify--neither the U.S. nor the Soviet Union have entered the war against Germany (yet, at least) at any point in time in this scenario.
Anyway, here is the scenario:
Due to France keeping its strategic reserve at Rheims (as per the original plan) instead of sending it to the Low Countries, the German attack through the Ardennes fails in 1940. Thus, the Manstein Plan fails and the Germans become bogged down in Belgium and in northern France. In 1941-1942, the French and British very slowly begin to advance in Belgium and in northern France (they obviously don't reach the Siegfried Line yet, though), but with an enormous number of French and British military deaths and casualties; meanwhile, during this time, Germany is rapidly continuing its work on the Siegfried Line and also begins the Holocaust in the areas which are under its control in an effort to kill as many Jews as it can. In 1942 or 1943, opponents of Hitler and the Nazis in the German military and elsewhere successfully stage a coup against Hitler and the Nazis (they waited until 1942 or 1943 to do this in order to reduce the risk that they will get accused of "stabbing Germany in the back"; likewise, they wanted to make sure that Hitler genuinely ran out of luck by now).
Afterwards, these successful coup plotters immediately stop the Holocaust and secretly offer Britain and France a peace deal: There would be a status quo ante bellum in the West, a restoration of Germany's 1914 borders in the East, and a German retention of both Austria and the Sudetenland (as well as a German retention of both its Czech and its Slovak puppet states); also, Germany would allow the restoration of an independent Polish state on the parts of Poland which are beyond Germany's 1914 borders and which are currently occupied by Germany. Both Britain and France reject this German peace deal and instead decide to continue fighting.
In response to this, the new, non-Nazi German government decides to "play hardball" with Britain and France by unilaterally withdrawing to Germany's 1914 borders in the east; in turn, this causes Stalin to occupy the parts of Poland which Germany withdrew from and to create a pro-Soviet Polish puppet state there. Afterwards, the new German government once again offers Britain and France the very same peace deal which they have previously rejected (well, other than the part about a restoration of a genuinely independent Poland), hoping that Britain and France would reconsider this offer now that a genuinely independent Poland is impossible to restore (Stalin's new Polish puppet state is certainly not genuinely independent).
Now--do Britain and France reconsider and accept this German peace deal, or do they decide to endure an additional massive number of (British and French) military deaths and casualties in order to get Germany to withdraw back to its pre-World War II borders in the east?
Remember--Britain and France will probably eventually defeat Germany in this scenario, but it will require an even greater number of military deaths and casualties on their part and any areas which Germany will withdraw from will simply be occupied by the Soviet Union afterwards. Are Britain and France genuinely willing to endure several hundred thousand or more additional military deaths on their side just so that Stalin's puppet Polish state, rather than Germany, will be the one who is controlling Danzig, the Polish Corridor, Posen, and eastern Upper Silesia? Or are Britain and France likely to simply say "Screw it!" in this scenario and accept this German peace deal (possibly with a clause which will open the door to a re-negotiation of Germany's border with Poland if/after Poland ever breaks free from Soviet control/rule (in order for Britain and France to "save face" in front of both their public and the Polish public who is now living under Soviet control/rule))?
Thoughts on this? And Yes, Britain and France really do appear to be stuck between a rock and a hard place in this scenario. :(
Also--to clarify--neither the U.S. nor the Soviet Union have entered the war against Germany (yet, at least) at any point in time in this scenario.