Discussion:
John Dvorak Concedes 2007 was a "Crappy Year" for Windows Enthusiasts
(too old to reply)
n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
2008-01-02 19:16:07 UTC
Permalink
<Quote>
Daniel Eran Dilger
John Dvorak looked back at "another crappy career year for tech" and
decided "Microsoft, Apple, and Google were to blame." Being right on
one count out of three isn't a bad record for Dvorak, who typically
gets everything wrong. Considering his self-flagellating lamentations
of 2007 in PC Mag makes for a comical framework for looking back at a
year that was particularly distressing to Windows Enthusiasts.

Dvorak's Crapy Year.
Among the problems for his "crappy" 2007 was that some irrelevant
dictionary added "w00t" as its word of the year, and that the scrappy
Nintendo Wii humiliated the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Sony PlayStation 3,
as I predicted would likely happen. Microsoft was well represented in
his list of complaints, with the WGA fiasco and the Windows Vista
Yawn.

PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360 vs. Nintendo Wii

Clearly, 2007 was not a good year for Microsoft, but Dvorak forgot to
mention the worst of Microsoft's problems:

The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft' embarrassing predicament a the
hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid updates
that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year's
iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano
with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser
and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.

Windows Mobile: after struggling for a decade to get WinCE installed
on something, Microsoft's plans largely focused on mobile smartphones.
Unfortunately, in 2007 Apple targeted the same market with a device
even hotter than the iPod. Even worse, while far more sophisticated
and attractive, the iPhone paired with a service plan costs hundreds
less than an entry level Windows Mobile phone such as the basic
Motorola Q. No wonder Apple outsold the entire range of Windows Mobile
devices in its first quarter of sales, and ended up with a stronger
showing in web stats than every other mobile browser combined.

Proprietary Formats: one key element to Microsoft's monopolistic
control over the PC has been its use of proprietary formats to force
users into buying everything from Microsoft. However, in 2007 a
variety of events eroded into that stranglehold. Windows Media DRM was
given the final boot in audio with MPEG AAC, and video with H.264. The
ISO rejected Microsoft's OOXML advanced to replace the existing Open
Document standard for productivity applications. Even DirectX is
facing increasing competition from Mac, Linux, Playstation, and Wii
applications that all use OpenGL for their graphics.

The Vista Yawn: Microsoft discovered, as I predicted, that 2007 wasn't
going to be like 1995. Retail Vista sales were disappointing to say
the least, corporate interest was simply absent, and even hardware
makers balked at loading up Vista Home Basic and forcing their users
to upgrade to a more expensive version that actually works as
expected.

Windows 95 and Vista: Why 2007 Won't Be Like 1995

Vista uptake has been reported to be about half that of Windows XP,
despite the fact that the PC market has grown significantly since 2001
and the reality that many Windows PC users regularly buy new computers
just to run away from their old infected machines rather than paying
to clean their old system out. Exacerbating the Vista problem is the
pestilent detail that an increasing number of users are now buying
Macs so they can run both yesterday's Windows XP and upgrade to Mac OS
X without the security problems, spyware, and adware push.

[Dvorak's April 07 comment that Vista's problems due to PC makers...]

Dvorak recommended that Microsoft build its own PC and screw over its
Windows licensee partners. Yes, that worked so well with the Zune!
Perhaps if Microsoft shipped its own Windows PC, it wouldn't break
compatibility between its MS PC and third party boxes, but imagine the
profits behind selling Office for MS PC-Windows separately from Office
for regular Windows.

The downside to Dvorak's hardware fantasy is that Microsoft has no
expertise in making or marketing functional hardware. Look at the
billion dollar losses behind the Xbox line, along with its 33% or
greater record for hardware failure. And look at what Microsoft did to
WebTV, MSNTV, and even its best ideas for music players, handheld
gaming, SPOT watches and other hardware that all stunk to high heaven.

[Dvorak complaints about Apple, Google...]

Microsoft was up 19.2%, Google 50.2%, but Apple was up 133.5% [in
2007]. No wonder Dvorak is kvetching.

[Dvorak's bad predictions about iPhone...]

Of course, reality is beyond him because Dvorak has no technical
competency in predicting what will work out and what won't. Why does
Dvorak command $40,000 speaking engagements despite not having written
anything interesting, accurate, or thought provoking in the last
decade? He's a professional troll. Fortunately for him, nobody in the
speaking engagement circuit or sound-bite seeking world of New
Journalism cares about substance.
</Quote>

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/02/john-dvorak-conceeds-2007-was-a-%e2%80%9ccrappy-year%e2%80%9d-for-windows-enthusiasts/
Linonut
2008-01-02 23:00:49 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
<Quote>
The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft' embarrassing predicament a the
hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid updates
that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year's
iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano
with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser
and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.
Already reported as sold. What other MS product does that sound like?
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Dvorak recommended that Microsoft build its own PC and screw over its
Windows licensee partners. Yes, that worked so well with the Zune!
. . .
The downside to Dvorak's hardware fantasy is that Microsoft has no
expertise in making or marketing functional hardware. Look at the
billion dollar losses behind the Xbox line, along with its 33% or
greater record for hardware failure. And look at what Microsoft did to
WebTV, MSNTV, and even its best ideas for music players, handheld
gaming, SPOT watches and other hardware that all stunk to high heaven.
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/02/john-dvorak-conceeds-2007-was-a-%e2%80%9ccrappy-year%e2%80%9d-for-windows-enthusiasts/
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
--
GNU/Linux rox, Tux!
n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
2008-01-02 23:22:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
I used to say that about their mouse, too, but recently I've switched
to Logitech and like it much better (costs more, though). My
keyboard is an IBM/Lenovo. Need to find one without the Microsoft
flag.

To me one of the most interesting things about the article is the
quotes on stock prices over the last year:

Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%

I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic. I recall figures like $7 for Apple 5 years ago vs $200
now. I may not have these figures correct, but I think it is true
that Apple has been an extremely good investment in recent years,
while Microsoft has been so-so. I'd be interested to see graphs of
stock prices for all these companies in the last five years, RedHat
and Novell too. We know what happened to SCO. Meanwhile, trolls on
cola are bragging about how good an investment Microsoft is.

Market share is another statistic I'd like to see quantified
(honestly, I mean). Of course it's slippery to define, for example,
Apple is stronger in the US than elsewhere, and Linux is stronger
elsewhere than in the US. And for many other reasons. But it
certainly looks like both Apple and Linux are eating into Microsoft's
share of the desktop, from opposite ends, although Linux is currently
small.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-01-03 00:56:37 UTC
Permalink
Microsoft   up 15%
Google      up 50%
Apple        up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
--
~~ Best of wishes

Roy S. Schestowitz | Useless fact: Women blink twice as much as men
http://Schestowitz.com | Open Prospects | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
Tasks: 121 total, 1 running, 120 sleeping, 0 stopped, 0 zombie
http://iuron.com - knowledge engine, not a search engine
n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
2008-01-03 15:55:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-01-03 17:26:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
I don't watch Apple to be honest (I closely track RHT/RHAT, NOVL, INTC, AMD,
IBM, MSFT, ^FTSE and SCOX in the finance feeds), but all that I know based on
bankers' word is that Novell is *advised* to buy back stock (many layoffs
coming next year and jobs continue to move east-wards). It's not looking great
for the US economy in general and I suppose you've heard about the price of
oil (a Benjamin per barrel).
--
~~ Best of wishes

"Fat operating systems spend most of their energy supporting their own fat."
--Nicholas Negroponte, MIT Media Lab, rediff.com, Apr 2006
http://Schestowitz.com | RHAT Linux | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
17:20:01 up 24 days, 6:08, 4 users, load average: 0.27, 0.84, 1.47
http://iuron.com - Open Source knowledge engine project
n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
2008-01-03 22:22:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
I don't watch Apple to be honest (I closely track RHT/RHAT, NOVL, INTC, AMD,
IBM, MSFT, ^FTSE and SCOX in the finance feeds), but all that I know based on
bankers' word is that Novell is *advised* to buy back stock (many layoffs
coming next year and jobs continue to move east-wards). It's not looking great
for the US economy in general and I suppose you've heard about the price of
oil (a Benjamin per barrel).
The Sibold troll is posting an item on how great Apple has been doing,
and taunting Linux advocates. I think he's a Wintroll not an Apple
troll, which is odd since the news is mostly bad for Microsoft, not
Linux. Also, even according to NetApplications, Linux is up from
about 0.35% in Jan 07 to 0.66% now. I don't know what their
methodology is, I couldn't find out, for example, these are OS
statistics as reported by browser hits? In the US only? I'm guessing
that this represents desktop usage in the US. But the point is that
both Apple and Linux are up in the last year, Windows is down, getting
nibbled from both directions. At this point Apple and Linux are not
competing much with each other. But the report on Apple in the last
few days really is impressive. Looks like half the universe got a Mac
and an iPhone for Christmas. My father-in-law was one (Mac last fall,
iPhone for xmas). I hadn't seen an iPhone before. It's really
beautiful, I've got to say. My father-in-law is deaf, so he doesn't
use the phone part, but he does do a lot of internet from hand-held
devices (his main way of communicating), and he's a technology nut.
He also loves his new Mac and vows never to go back to Windows, which
he used for 10 years. Anyway, I'd love to see Ballmer's face when he
sees these statistics. I won't feed the Sibold troll, but this is
an interesting story. All the curves I've seen on Apple are aiming
for the stars, so it's got to give Billy and company bad dreams.

2007 has been a bad year for Microsoft. I can't wait to see what 2008
will bring.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-01-04 04:22:06 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In
general, stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge
actual wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well.
Novell will inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
I don't watch Apple to be honest (I closely track RHT/RHAT, NOVL, INTC, AMD,
IBM, MSFT, ^FTSE and SCOX in the finance feeds), but all that I know based
on bankers' word is that Novell is *advised* to buy back stock (many layoffs
coming next year and jobs continue to move east-wards). It's not looking
great for the US economy in general and I suppose you've heard about the
price of oil (a Benjamin per barrel).
The Sibold troll is posting an item on how great Apple has been doing,
and taunting Linux advocates. I think he's a Wintroll not an Apple
troll, which is odd since the news is mostly bad for Microsoft, not
Linux. Also, even according to NetApplications, Linux is up from
about 0.35% in Jan 07 to 0.66% now. I don't know what their
methodology is, I couldn't find out, for example, these are OS
statistics as reported by browser hits? In the US only?
You can't get absolute numbers, but you can spot trends. Surveys indicate that,
given the samples at hand, Linux usage on the desktop (not necessarily
connected to the Web), has doubled in the past year. Think of this as a
subsample of a sample. Sites like Groklaw and other popular 'congregation'
areas for Linux users (there are characteristic attached) honour privacy, so
their logs are not included in these Web stat-based surveys. It's a shame in
a sense because by compromising privacy they could help the image of Linux,
namely by showing its popularity.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I'm guessing
that this represents desktop usage in the US. But the point is that
both Apple and Linux are up in the last year, Windows is down, getting
nibbled from both directions. At this point Apple and Linux are not
competing much with each other. But the report on Apple in the last
few days really is impressive. Looks like half the universe got a Mac
and an iPhone for Christmas. My father-in-law was one (Mac last fall,
iPhone for xmas). I hadn't seen an iPhone before. It's really
beautiful, I've got to say. My father-in-law is deaf, so he doesn't
use the phone part, but he does do a lot of internet from hand-held
devices (his main way of communicating), and he's a technology nut.
He also loves his new Mac and vows never to go back to Windows, which
he used for 10 years. Anyway, I'd love to see Ballmer's face when he
sees these statistics. I won't feed the Sibold troll, but this is
an interesting story. All the curves I've seen on Apple are aiming
for the stars, so it's got to give Billy and company bad dreams.
2007 has been a bad year for Microsoft. I can't wait to see what 2008
will bring.
Apple's growth is definitely symbiotic as far as Linux goes. It's UNIX, it uses
Samba, it runs open source apps without performance penalties, and so forth.
Some Apple Mac users move to Linux or mix the two (desktop and server or
desktop and desktop).
--
~~ Best of wishes

Roy S. Schestowitz | Useless fact: Florida is bigger than England
http://Schestowitz.com | Free as in Free Beer | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
Cpu(s): 24.7%us, 4.0%sy, 1.0%ni, 66.2%id, 3.7%wa, 0.3%hi, 0.1%si, 0.0%st
http://iuron.com - semantic engine to gather information
Mark Kent
2008-01-04 09:08:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In
general, stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge
actual wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well.
Novell will inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
I don't watch Apple to be honest (I closely track RHT/RHAT, NOVL, INTC, AMD,
IBM, MSFT, ^FTSE and SCOX in the finance feeds), but all that I know based
on bankers' word is that Novell is *advised* to buy back stock (many layoffs
coming next year and jobs continue to move east-wards). It's not looking
great for the US economy in general and I suppose you've heard about the
price of oil (a Benjamin per barrel).
The Sibold troll is posting an item on how great Apple has been doing,
and taunting Linux advocates. I think he's a Wintroll not an Apple
troll, which is odd since the news is mostly bad for Microsoft, not
Linux. Also, even according to NetApplications, Linux is up from
about 0.35% in Jan 07 to 0.66% now. I don't know what their
methodology is, I couldn't find out, for example, these are OS
statistics as reported by browser hits? In the US only?
You can't get absolute numbers, but you can spot trends. Surveys indicate that,
given the samples at hand, Linux usage on the desktop (not necessarily
connected to the Web), has doubled in the past year. Think of this as a
subsample of a sample. Sites like Groklaw and other popular 'congregation'
areas for Linux users (there are characteristic attached) honour privacy, so
their logs are not included in these Web stat-based surveys. It's a shame in
a sense because by compromising privacy they could help the image of Linux,
namely by showing its popularity.
We're well past the tipping point for linux now. All we need to do is
wait.
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I'm guessing
that this represents desktop usage in the US. But the point is that
both Apple and Linux are up in the last year, Windows is down, getting
nibbled from both directions. At this point Apple and Linux are not
competing much with each other. But the report on Apple in the last
few days really is impressive. Looks like half the universe got a Mac
and an iPhone for Christmas. My father-in-law was one (Mac last fall,
iPhone for xmas). I hadn't seen an iPhone before. It's really
beautiful, I've got to say. My father-in-law is deaf, so he doesn't
use the phone part, but he does do a lot of internet from hand-held
devices (his main way of communicating), and he's a technology nut.
He also loves his new Mac and vows never to go back to Windows, which
he used for 10 years. Anyway, I'd love to see Ballmer's face when he
sees these statistics. I won't feed the Sibold troll, but this is
an interesting story. All the curves I've seen on Apple are aiming
for the stars, so it's got to give Billy and company bad dreams.
2007 has been a bad year for Microsoft. I can't wait to see what 2008
will bring.
Apple's growth is definitely symbiotic as far as Linux goes. It's UNIX, it uses
Samba, it runs open source apps without performance penalties, and so forth.
Some Apple Mac users move to Linux or mix the two (desktop and server or
desktop and desktop).
Apple's hardware is, in the main, very good quality, and their products
overall tend to be well engineered, and typically do "what they say on
the tin". We've a dual-PPC mac and a mac mini here, and I had a really
old colour mac which recently had to be disposed of due to water damage,
all of which are well-built and well-conceived devices.

For me, the iPhone is the exception, though - it's data performance is
always going to be awful compared with 3G devices; why Apple would
release something based on 10 year old technology is hard to understand,
but perhaps the lack of 3G penetration in the US, and a very strong
US-market focus explain this. For the rest of the world, it's a
dinosaur machine, though.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
| Cola faq: http://www.faqs.org/faqs/linux/advocacy/faq-and-primer/ |
| Cola trolls: http://colatrolls.blogspot.com/ |
| My (new) blog: http://www.thereisnomagic.org |
t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
2008-01-04 14:45:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mark Kent
We're well past the tipping point for linux now. All we need to do is
wait.
Agreed, if you define 'tipping point' as the point at which a trend
becomes irreversible, we are well past it. The visible numbers on the
desktop are still small, but undeniably trending upward. Even the
more controversial low-ball web stats show this. They likely
undercount the presence of desktop Linux because it is currently
being deployed as an engineering workstation more often than the
typical consumer web surfing station, but web stats show the growth
is happening in the consumer space also.

The really interesting numbers are coming from the repository
servers and the like. They give us counts of active, unique
systems in the tens of millions, and that is not even counting
those that are not updating or updating from caching proxies.
There is likely some bluring between the server and desktop
in those numbers, but just looking at Ubuntu, the current leading
desktop oriented distro, we have more than 12 million systems
downloading updates. Given global PC deployment estimates of
about 1.1 billion, that puts just the Ubuntu share of the desktop
at around 1%... so web estimates that put all of Linux around 0.5
are almost certainly bunk.
Post by Mark Kent
Apple's hardware is, in the main, very good quality, and their products
overall tend to be well engineered, and typically do "what they say on
the tin". We've a dual-PPC mac and a mac mini here, and I had a really
old colour mac which recently had to be disposed of due to water damage,
all of which are well-built and well-conceived devices.
We've a couple of Macs here also, an older tower and a Mac mini,
both used mainly for video/audio editing. They might get less
use as Ubuntu Studio matures.

Thad
--
Yeah, I drank the Open Source cool-aid... Unlike the other brand, it had
all the ingredients on the label.
Mark Kent
2008-01-03 18:41:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
The actual share price is meaningless unless you multiply it by the
number of shares in order to get the actual market cap.

As Microsoft have been buying back shares, they have been reducing their
market cap by the value of each of these shares which they bought back,
although that is ameliorated by the rise in value which went on at the
same time.

You then need to take into account the indices of the market for the
same period, and as far as possible look at how the overall market
moved. If they overall market moved up by, say, 10%, then Microsoft's
15% is really a 5% increase above the market, which might be almost
entirely funded by share buy-back, thus reducing their market cap by the
value of those shares.

Of course, analysts look at this stuff all the time, but as many of them
are non-technical, they often get things wrong, as they are as much
driven by mathematical analysis of reported financial performance plus
ongoing trading as they are by a deep understanding of the actual market
in which the company operates.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
| Cola faq: http://www.faqs.org/faqs/linux/advocacy/faq-and-primer/ |
| Cola trolls: http://colatrolls.blogspot.com/ |
| My (new) blog: http://www.thereisnomagic.org |
Roy Schestowitz
2008-01-04 04:25:42 UTC
Permalink
____/ Mark Kent on Thursday 03 January 2008 18:41 : \____
Post by Mark Kent
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
The actual share price is meaningless unless you multiply it by the
number of shares in order to get the actual market cap.
As Microsoft have been buying back shares, they have been reducing their
market cap by the value of each of these shares which they bought back,
although that is ameliorated by the rise in value which went on at the
same time.
Google isn't far now from Microsoft's market cap. It recently surpassed IBM's,
IIRC, which isn't bad for a 9-year-old company, My worry is that Google
absorbs some ex-Softies, many of whom are vain, unethical, and inherently
anti-Google. They could poison Google from the inside and drop the "Do No
Evil" mantra in the sink. Watch Google closely and ensure it doesn't become a
bunch of geeks on a high throne. Apple is already suffering from that
syndrome, especially with recent growth.
Post by Mark Kent
You then need to take into account the indices of the market for the
same period, and as far as possible look at how the overall market
moved. If they overall market moved up by, say, 10%, then Microsoft's
15% is really a 5% increase above the market, which might be almost
entirely funded by share buy-back, thus reducing their market cap by the
value of those shares.
Of course, analysts look at this stuff all the time, but as many of them
are non-technical, they often get things wrong, as they are as much
driven by mathematical analysis of reported financial performance plus
ongoing trading as they are by a deep understanding of the actual market
in which the company operates.
--
~~ Best of wishes

Roy S. Schestowitz | Useless fact: ~70% of organisms are bacteria
http://Schestowitz.com | RHAT Linux | PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
04:20:01 up 24 days, 17:08, 4 users, load average: 1.55, 1.13, 1.16
http://iuron.com - Open Source knowledge engine project
Mark Kent
2008-01-04 09:11:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Roy Schestowitz
____/ Mark Kent on Thursday 03 January 2008 18:41 : \____
Post by Mark Kent
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic.
It means very little. Microsoft is pumping cash into the stock. In general,
stock price does not indicate much because it doesn't just gauge actual
wealth. IBM and Dell, IIRC, are in heavy buyback mode as well. Novell will
inevitably end up this way as well.
Yes, I've read how many large corporations in the US are buying back
stock. But to the extent that is true of Microsoft, it means that
their 15% gain means less than it seems. I don't know if Apple has
been buying back stock, but surely their 133% gain is related to the
success of iPod, iPhone and OS/X.
The actual share price is meaningless unless you multiply it by the
number of shares in order to get the actual market cap.
As Microsoft have been buying back shares, they have been reducing their
market cap by the value of each of these shares which they bought back,
although that is ameliorated by the rise in value which went on at the
same time.
Google isn't far now from Microsoft's market cap. It recently surpassed IBM's,
IIRC, which isn't bad for a 9-year-old company, My worry is that Google
absorbs some ex-Softies, many of whom are vain, unethical, and inherently
anti-Google. They could poison Google from the inside and drop the "Do No
Evil" mantra in the sink. Watch Google closely and ensure it doesn't become a
bunch of geeks on a high throne. Apple is already suffering from that
syndrome, especially with recent growth.
Google will inevitably change culture as it grows. Politics is surely
already rife, and the lead of the technology people will be eroded as
the politicians gradually rise to the top and stagnate the business. To
be honest, this is a good thing as it's the only way some businesses
could be stopped. Just look at Microsoft, had it not been for their
inept senior management, they could've destroyed the free software
movement long ago, or at least put it back a decade or two.
Post by Roy Schestowitz
Post by Mark Kent
You then need to take into account the indices of the market for the
same period, and as far as possible look at how the overall market
moved. If they overall market moved up by, say, 10%, then Microsoft's
15% is really a 5% increase above the market, which might be almost
entirely funded by share buy-back, thus reducing their market cap by the
value of those shares.
Of course, analysts look at this stuff all the time, but as many of them
are non-technical, they often get things wrong, as they are as much
driven by mathematical analysis of reported financial performance plus
ongoing trading as they are by a deep understanding of the actual market
in which the company operates.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
| Cola faq: http://www.faqs.org/faqs/linux/advocacy/faq-and-primer/ |
| Cola trolls: http://colatrolls.blogspot.com/ |
| My (new) blog: http://www.thereisnomagic.org |
Rex Ballard
2008-01-03 05:33:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
I used to say that about their mouse, too, but recently I've switched
to Logitech and like it much better (costs more, though). My
keyboard is an IBM/Lenovo.
I use a Logitech trackball, but most of the time I just use my
ThinkPad "stick", or occasionally
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Need to find one without the Microsoft flag.
I'm less concerned about the flag on the keyboard, than I am about how
quickly and easily I can easily I can get the whole computer running
Linux.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
To me one of the most interesting things about the article is the
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
He forgot:
Linux related portion of Novell's revenue - up 69%
Lenovo (Linux now runs on almost all models) - up 150%

Gateway (loyal to Microsoft) - down to less than $1/share before being
sold to Acer

Acer, a big supporter of Linux and open critic of Vista, has gone from
$40/share in August 2006, and has soared to almost $80/share in
October 2009.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I think if you look over the last 5 years the comparison is even more
dramatic. I recall figures like $7 for Apple 5 years ago vs $200
now.
Close enough, on April 17, of 2003, the price was as low as $6.65.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I may not have these figures correct, but I think it is true
that Apple has been an extremely good investment in recent years,
while Microsoft has been so-so.
Microsoft stock hung between $23 and $27 from 2001 to 2006, and has
only climbed to between $32 and $37 in 2007, and even those increases
were based on Microsoft's self-funding of it's distribution channels,
and some stock buy-backs. At the same time, insiders have sold almost
41 million shares directly back to Microsoft.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I'd be interested to see graphs of
stock prices for all these companies in the last five years, RedHat
and Novell too. We know what happened to SCO. Meanwhile, trolls on
cola are bragging about how good an investment Microsoft is.
Look at the "Pure Microsoft" plays.
Gateway - now nearly bankrupt taken over by Acer.
SCO - now nearly bankrupt.

It seems that Bill has reduced his 2 billion shares to 857 million.
Ballmer is down to 408 million.
Paul Allen has sold off.
John Shirley has only 1.4 million,
and Jeffrey Raikes only 5.4 million shares.

Gates is 52 and ready to retire.
Ballmer is about the same, and not in the best of health.

Methinks that some of the big institutional investors are about to get
"stuck", some could lose as much as $15 billion.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Market share is another statistic I'd like to see quantified
(honestly, I mean).
You, me, and everyone else in the industry. There does seem to be a
strong indicator that Vista is not doing well. After one year, Vista
has only penetrated 4% of what is supposed to be "Microsoft's" market.

PC unit volumes are down, prices have eroded to pre-XP prices, even
though they now have twice as much memory, storage, and CPU power.

There seems to be a dearth of market statistics.
How many OpenGL compatible adapters were sold?
Browser statistics just say who owns the most IP addresses.
Counting page-views doesn't count squid cached pages.

But let's look at some of the companies who DO count USERS, and can
tell when they are using Linux or "Other" that is probably Linux.

Microsoft - has declared Linux "enemy number one". When testifying
under oath, Microsoft testified that Linux had 17% of the market, when
browser surveys said it only had 1%, and that was in the 2002 EU
trial.

Google - has become a huge supporter of Linux and Open Source.

Sun - big supporter of Linux.

Yahoo and AOL - now Linux friendly.

Adobe - now releasing Linux version at same time as Windodws.

IBM - has client software for Linux, including Lotus Notes 8 and Lotus
Symphony.

Secondary indicators:

Mozilla FireFox - downloaded by over 1/2 billion users, estimated to
be used by almost 40% of all PC users (using skewed browser survey).

OpenOffice - 100 million "official" downloads, actual downloads
estimated at over 250 million.

An old classic, "sizing the Linux Market" written by Bob Young in 1997
http://bat8.inria.fr/~lang/hotlist/free/use/linuxmarket.html

It shows many of the problems of trying to "count" Linux users.

We have a pretty good idea of how fast the market is growing (about
70% per year since 2001, and about 200% from 1996 to 2001.

XP slowed the momentum of Linux, but didn't stop it, and Linux seems
to still have been growing at 3-5 times the rate of Microsoft. Of
course, Microsoft has been shipped with 100 million PC per year,

Even survey methods are flawed, because many Linux users use BOTH
Windows AND Linux, often on the same PC. Most surveys assume that you
can only run one OR the other.

This is also the flaw in PC marketing. Instead of offering the choice
of Windows OR Linux, the OEMs need to offer the option of Windows AND
Linux (for a higher price of course).

This is also Microsoft's flaw in claiming market share. Microsoft
wants us to assume that just because a PC is SOLD with Windows, that
Windows is the only operating system that will ever be installed.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Of course it's slippery to define, for example,
Apple is stronger in the US than elsewhere,
Apple is also very popular in Europe as well.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
and Linux is stronger
elsewhere than in the US. And for many other reasons.
Linux just plays a different role.

Keep in mind that Linux is more than just the kernel, it's also the
entire suite of Open Source Software, and the Open Standards, and this
is where Linux is really winning.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
But it certainly looks like both Apple and Linux are
eating into Microsoft's share of the desktop,
More importantly, Vista has stalled severely.

Microsoft took a huge gamble at several levels. They tried to make
Vista an "All or Nothing" proposition. They were hoping to force
Linux completely off the PC platform. They wrote this into their
license agreements. They wrote this into their OEM agreements. They
wrote this into their software. They added features which would allow
Microsoft to prevent the installations of boot managers, prevent the
installation of virtualization software, and prevent the installation
of software that has not been "certified" as safe by Microsoft.

Microsoft also required end-users to grant them permission to disable
their computers if Microsoft detected a license violation, which could
be falsely triggered by such things as disk partitioning, disk
replacement, or adding disks.

It all backfired. Microsoft inappropriately killed lots of innocent
computers. They alienated Linux users against Vista. Unfortunately,
this included many corporate customers who mandated that all new PCs
be "Linux Ready" in case Microsoft tried to disable their licenses.

Microsoft also tried to require that PCs be configured with DirectX-10
video cards in order to get it to do the "WOW" things shown in the
television advertizing. The problem was that most of the PCs being
sold were being chosen to be "Linux Ready".

The net result is that even though Microsoft has claimed about 100
million Vista licenses over the last year, only about 40 million of
them seem to actually be running Vista. Most were actually shipped
with XP.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
from opposite ends,
although Linux is currently small.
You might be surprised. Remember, even though Microsoft has about 10
years worth of computers, roughly 1 billion PCs, out there in the
marketplace, their market isn''t growing significantly. Meanwhile,
many PCs originally sold with Windows are being converted to Linux.
Many of these PCs are "hybrids" running both Linux and Windows at the
same time.

It's quite possible that the number of Linux users, including those
using Linux on hybrid machines, could increase by over 100 million
this year. Meanwhile, Microsoft has been able to get Vista to even 40
million PCs, and most of those PCs are replacements for existing
Windows users, which means no net gain in market share.

Statistically, on a quarter by quarter basis, Linux is "outselling"
Windows in terms of generating new users and incremental market share.

The real question is how to measure the Linux population accurately.
The first problem is that you have to assume that Linux users may be
using BOTH Linux and Windows from the same location. You need to
count each environment uniquely, but only once.

But even if you did get that information, you probably wouldn't be
allowed to publish your findings, and even if you did want to publish
it, you would probably join the various other researchers who charge
$2000 to $5000 PER VIEWER for their reports.
Linonut
2008-01-03 12:52:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rex Ballard
PC unit volumes are down, prices have eroded to pre-XP prices, even
though they now have twice as much memory, storage, and CPU power.
We've noticed.
Post by Rex Ballard
The net result is that even though Microsoft has claimed about 100
million Vista licenses over the last year, only about 40 million of
them seem to actually be running Vista. Most were actually shipped
with XP.
. . .
But even if you did get that information, you probably wouldn't be
allowed to publish your findings, and even if you did want to publish
it, you would probably join the various other researchers who charge
$2000 to $5000 PER VIEWER for their reports.
--
This sig has expired. Please reactivate your sig by paying $0.25
and entering the 30-character activation key that will be emailed to
your account.
DFS
2008-01-04 03:35:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Need to find one without the Microsoft flag.
I'm less concerned about the flag on the keyboard, than I am about how
quickly and easily I can easily I can get the whole computer running
Linux.
You're talking about your hobby/toy machines you use at night for tinkering
and playing around. Like most cola "advocates", you're 100% Windows by day.
On the job, you could remove Linux from your life altogether and never miss
it. That's what the vast, vast majority of the world does.
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
To me one of the most interesting things about the article is the
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
Linux related portion of Novell's revenue - up 69%
Linux-related portion of Novell's total revenue: not even 9%. And
apparently Novell is 'fudging' the Linux revenue numbers
http://www.linuxtoday.com/news_story.php3?ltsn=2007-12-14-012-26-NW-BZ-NV-0000
Post by Rex Ballard
Lenovo (Linux now runs on almost all models) - up 150%
Lenovo recommends Windows Vista. Lenovo explicitly does not recommend Linux
(they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Post by Rex Ballard
Gateway (loyal to Microsoft) - down to less than $1/share before being
sold to Acer
Here again, Gateway recommends Windows Vista. Gateway explicitly does not
recommend Linux (they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Post by Rex Ballard
Acer, a big supporter of Linux and open critic of Vista, has gone from
$40/share in August 2006, and has soared to almost $80/share in
October 2009.
And yet again: Acer recommends Windows Vista. Acer explicitly does not
recommend Linux (they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I'd be interested to see graphs of
stock prices for all these companies in the last five years, RedHat
and Novell too. We know what happened to SCO. Meanwhile, trolls on
cola are bragging about how good an investment Microsoft is.
Look at the "Pure Microsoft" plays.
Gateway - now nearly bankrupt taken over by Acer.
What does this have to do with Microsoft?
Post by Rex Ballard
SCO - now nearly bankrupt.
It's more fun to look at "Pure Linux" plays: they look like steep funhouse
slides with little jagged steps that scrape your ass on the short, steep
ride to the bottom.
Post by Rex Ballard
It seems that Bill has reduced his 2 billion shares to 857 million.
Ballmer is down to 408 million.
Paul Allen has sold off.
John Shirley has only 1.4 million,
and Jeffrey Raikes only 5.4 million shares.
1.4 million shares of MS sounds like a lot to me. I wouldn't be scoffing if
I were you.
Post by Rex Ballard
Gates is 52 and ready to retire.
Ballmer is about the same, and not in the best of health.
Smacking down Linux has given him some rosy cheeks.
Post by Rex Ballard
Methinks that some of the big institutional investors are about to get
"stuck", some could lose as much as $15 billion.
You were probably saying the same thing 8-10 years ago.
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Market share is another statistic I'd like to see quantified
(honestly, I mean).
You, me, and everyone else in the industry. There does seem to be a
strong indicator that Vista is not doing well. After one year, Vista
has only penetrated 4% of what is supposed to be "Microsoft's" market.
PC unit volumes are down, prices have eroded to pre-XP prices, even
though they now have twice as much memory, storage, and CPU power.
Nice! For that you can thank Microsoft: enormous worldwide adoption of
Windows PCs drove down hardware costs due to economies of scale.
Post by Rex Ballard
There seems to be a dearth of market statistics.
How many OpenGL compatible adapters were sold?
Nobody cares. We want DirectX 10 cards.
Post by Rex Ballard
Browser statistics just say who owns the most IP addresses.
Counting page-views doesn't count squid cached pages.
But let's look at some of the companies who DO count USERS, and can
tell when they are using Linux or "Other" that is probably Linux.
'Other' is definitely NOT Linux.
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft - has declared Linux "enemy number one". When testifying
under oath, Microsoft testified that Linux had 17% of the market, when
browser surveys said it only had 1%, and that was in the 2002 EU
trial.
Links?
Post by Rex Ballard
Google - has become a huge supporter of Linux and Open Source.
About time, considering they've been freeloading it for years.
Post by Rex Ballard
Sun - big supporter of Linux.
And Windows.

Sep 2007: "First, Microsoft will certify Windows running within Sun's
Project Virginia....Second, Sun will OEM and support the Windows platform."
http://blogs.sun.com/jonathan/
Post by Rex Ballard
Yahoo and AOL - now Linux friendly.
Just what Linux needs.
Post by Rex Ballard
Adobe - now releasing Linux version at same time as Windodws.
Exactly which products?

* Acrobat Connect (browser-based)
* Acrobat (Mac and Windows only)
* AfterEffects (Mac and Windows only)
* ColdFusion (Mac, Windows, Linux, Solaris, AIX)
* Creative Suite (Mac and Windows only)
* DreamWeaver (Mac and Windows only)
* Flash (Mac and Windows only) non-revenue generating player for Linux
* Flex (Mac and Windows, parts avail for Linux)
* InDesign (Mac and Windows only)
* Illustrator (Mac and Windows only)
* LiveCycle (unsure, J2EE-server based)
* Photoshop (Mac and Windows only)
* Premiere (Mac and Windows only)
* Scene7 (Mac, Windows, parts on Linux)

www.adobe.com | Products | <choose product> | Product Overview | System
Requirements
Post by Rex Ballard
IBM - has client software for Linux, including Lotus Notes 8 and Lotus
Symphony.
That's all they got for the $billions?
Post by Rex Ballard
Mozilla FireFox - downloaded by over 1/2 billion users, estimated to
be used by almost 40% of all PC users (using skewed browser survey).
16% http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=3
17%
http://www.itproductivity.org/PressRelease/press_release20070906Browser.htm
36% http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
28% in Europe
http://mozillalinks.org/wp/2007/07/firefox-takes-28-market-share-in-europe/
Post by Rex Ballard
OpenOffice - 100 million "official" downloads, actual downloads
estimated at over 250 million.
Actual usage estimated at 100,000 (by DFS, based on how bogus it is).
Post by Rex Ballard
An old classic, "sizing the Linux Market" written by Bob Young in 1997
http://bat8.inria.fr/~lang/hotlist/free/use/linuxmarket.html
It shows many of the problems of trying to "count" Linux users.
We have a pretty good idea of how fast the market is growing (about
70% per year since 2001, and about 200% from 1996 to 2001.
XP slowed the momentum of Linux, but didn't stop it, and Linux seems
to still have been growing at 3-5 times the rate of Microsoft. Of
course, Microsoft has been shipped with 100 million PC per year,
If Linux sold well enough at retail, more OEMs would offer it.
Post by Rex Ballard
Even survey methods are flawed, because many Linux users use BOTH
Windows AND Linux, often on the same PC. Most surveys assume that you
can only run one OR the other.
Most people do run one (Windows of course) or the other. It's way too much
trouble to split your computing life among different operating platforms.
Post by Rex Ballard
This is also the flaw in PC marketing. Instead of offering the choice
of Windows OR Linux, the OEMs need to offer the option of Windows AND
Linux (for a higher price of course).
The OEMs need to do what they want to do. Offering only Linux is a
sure-fire way to bankruptcy for anything but the tiniest or the largest
OEMs.
Post by Rex Ballard
This is also Microsoft's flaw in claiming market share. Microsoft
wants us to assume that just because a PC is SOLD with Windows, that
Windows is the only operating system that will ever be installed.
How do you know MS wants you to assume that?
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Of course it's slippery to define, for example,
Apple is stronger in the US than elsewhere,
Apple is also very popular in Europe as well.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
and Linux is stronger
elsewhere than in the US. And for many other reasons.
Linux just plays a different role.
Here in the US, and in developed countries around the world, it plays the
role of comic relief.
Post by Rex Ballard
Keep in mind that Linux is more than just the kernel, it's also the
entire suite of Open Source Software, and the Open Standards, and this
is where Linux is really winning.
huh? The OS standard is MS Windows. The office standard is MS Office. The
game platform standard is MS Windows.
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
But it certainly looks like both Apple and Linux are
eating into Microsoft's share of the desktop,
More importantly, Vista has stalled severely.
Lie. All the same ridiculous cola-bozo claims about Vista are more
sour-grapes guzzling like you maniacs did with XP, and 2000, and Win98, etc.
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft took a huge gamble at several levels.
I'm quite sure it will pay off.
Post by Rex Ballard
They tried to make Vista an "All or Nothing" proposition.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They were hoping to force Linux completely off the PC platform.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their license agreements.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their OEM agreements.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their software.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They added features which would allow
Microsoft to prevent the installations of boot managers
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
prevent the installation of virtualization software
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
and prevent the installation of software that has not been "certified" as
safe by Microsoft.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft also required end-users to grant them permission to disable
their computers if Microsoft detected a license violation, which could
be falsely triggered by such things as disk partitioning, disk
replacement, or adding disks.
I'm not sure disabled is the right word; click the button to activate your
licensed copy of Vista and everything's peachy.
Post by Rex Ballard
It all backfired. Microsoft inappropriately killed lots of innocent
computers.
Lie. A few, maybe.
Post by Rex Ballard
They alienated Linux users against Vista.
As if Linux idiots aren't already angry, alienated bozos.
Post by Rex Ballard
Unfortunately,
this included many corporate customers who mandated that all new PCs
be "Linux Ready" in case Microsoft tried to disable their licenses.
This is just the voices in your head...
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft also tried to require that PCs be configured with DirectX-10
video cards in order to get it to do the "WOW" things shown in the
television advertizing.
Lie.
Post by Rex Ballard
The problem was that most of the PCs being
sold were being chosen to be "Linux Ready".
Lie. Most of the PC being sold were chosen to be "Vista Ready" (that means
10x-20x the resource needed to run Linux, of course, and at 1/50th of the
speed)

Back to reality: outside of corporate data centers, virtually nobody uses or
gives a hoot about Linux.
Post by Rex Ballard
The net result is that even though Microsoft has claimed about 100
million Vista licenses over the last year, only about 40 million of
them seem to actually be running Vista. Most were actually shipped
with XP.
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
from opposite ends,
although Linux is currently small.
You might be surprised. Remember, even though Microsoft has about 10
years worth of computers, roughly 1 billion PCs, out there in the
marketplace, their market isn''t growing significantly. Meanwhile,
many PCs originally sold with Windows are being converted to Linux.
Many of these PCs are "hybrids" running both Linux and Windows at the
same time.
It's quite possible that the number of Linux users, including those
using Linux on hybrid machines, could increase by over 100 million
this year.
It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE that Linux users would increase at least 5-fold in
the next year.
Post by Rex Ballard
Meanwhile, Microsoft has been able to get Vista to even 40
million PCs, and most of those PCs are replacements for existing
Windows users, which means no net gain in market share.
What do you expect? Windows already has ~95% desktop market share.
Post by Rex Ballard
Statistically, on a quarter by quarter basis, Linux is "outselling"
Windows in terms of generating new users and incremental market share.
cuckoo! cuckoo!

Since Windows maintains its 95% market share year after year, 95% of new
users are Windows.
Post by Rex Ballard
The real question is how to measure the Linux population accurately.
It can only be estimated. By far the best estimate that can be made is to
sample a broad range of website hits over a time period. When you do that,
you find Linux market share is approx less than one-half of one-percent

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8&qpmr=100&qpdt=1&qpct=3&qptimeframe=M&qpsp=96&qpnp=12
Post by Rex Ballard
The first problem is that you have to assume that Linux users may be
using BOTH Linux and Windows from the same location. You need to
count each environment uniquely, but only once.
In an ideal world, all computer users would be surveyed every few years, and
each user allowed to identify themselves as one OS devotee (or maybe provide
% of time data), and would have to provide demographic info such as age,
sex, country, occupation. Along with that info, I would greatly enjoy
having accurate, actual unit and dollar sales info on a wide range of
software products, with accompanying similar demographic info.
Post by Rex Ballard
But even if you did get that information, you probably wouldn't be
allowed to publish your findings, and even if you did want to publish
it, you would probably join the various other researchers who charge
$2000 to $5000 PER VIEWER for their reports.
Why pay those outrageous prices for well-supported research when we can
listen to you make up fantasy numbers for free on cola?
Rick
2008-01-04 04:28:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
Need to find one without the Microsoft flag.
I'm less concerned about the flag on the keyboard, than I am about how
quickly and easily I can easily I can get the whole computer running
Linux.
You're talking about your hobby/toy machines you use at night for
Hobby/toys? You mean like all those super computer clusters.
Post by DFS
tinkering and playing around. Like most cola "advocates", you're 100%
Windows by day. On the job, you could remove Linux from your life
altogether and never miss it. That's what the vast, vast majority of
the world does.
So, you expect people to just change their machines to Linux at work,
which might very well get them fired? Why?
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
To me one of the most interesting things about the article is the
Microsoft up 15%
Google up 50%
Apple up 133%
Linux related portion of Novell's revenue - up 69%
Linux-related portion of Novell's total revenue: not even 9%. And
apparently Novell is 'fudging' the Linux revenue numbers
http://www.linuxtoday.com/news_story.php3?ltsn=2007-12-14-012-26-NW-BZ-
NV-0000
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Lenovo (Linux now runs on almost all models) - up 150%
Lenovo recommends Windows Vista. Lenovo explicitly does not recommend
Linux (they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Advertising subsidy (bribe) from Microsoft. IOW MS paying OEMs to use
their OS.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Gateway (loyal to Microsoft) - down to less than $1/share before being
sold to Acer
Here again, Gateway recommends Windows Vista. Gateway explicitly does
not recommend Linux (they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Advertising subsidy (bribe) from Microsoft. IOW MS paying OEMs to use
their OS.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Acer, a big supporter of Linux and open critic of Vista, has gone from
$40/share in August 2006, and has soared to almost $80/share in October
2009.
And yet again: Acer recommends Windows Vista. Acer explicitly does not
recommend Linux (they're in business to make money, not lose it)
Advertising subsidy (bribe) from Microsoft. IOW MS paying OEMs to use
their OS.
(snip)
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
There seems to be a dearth of market statistics. How many OpenGL
compatible adapters were sold?
Nobody cares.
Liar.
Post by DFS
We want DirectX 10 cards.
No, we don't.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Browser statistics just say who owns the most IP addresses. Counting
page-views doesn't count squid cached pages.
But let's look at some of the companies who DO count USERS, and can
tell when they are using Linux or "Other" that is probably Linux.
'Other' is definitely NOT Linux.
You don't know that.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft - has declared Linux "enemy number one". When testifying
under oath, Microsoft testified that Linux had 17% of the market, when
browser surveys said it only had 1%, and that was in the 2002 EU trial.
Links?
You can't Google
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Google - has become a huge supporter of Linux and Open Source.
About time, considering they've been freeloading it for years.
You're a liar.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Sun - big supporter of Linux.
And Windows.
And Linux.
Post by DFS
Sep 2007: "First, Microsoft will certify Windows running within Sun's
Project Virginia....Second, Sun will OEM and support the Windows
platform." http://blogs.sun.com/jonathan/
Post by Rex Ballard
Yahoo and AOL - now Linux friendly.
Just what Linux needs.
It helps.
Post by DFS
(snip)
Post by Rex Ballard
OpenOffice - 100 million "official" downloads, actual downloads
estimated at over 250 million.
Actual usage estimated at 100,000 (by DFS, based on how bogus it is).
Since it isn't bogus, your numbers are lies.
(snip)
Post by DFS
If Linux sold well enough at retail, more OEMs would offer it.
That's your most fervent hope.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Even survey methods are flawed, because many Linux users use BOTH
Windows AND Linux, often on the same PC. Most surveys assume that you
can only run one OR the other.
Most people do run one (Windows of course) or the other. It's way too
much trouble to split your computing life among different operating
platforms.
No, you are just too stupid to do it.

(snip)
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Linux just plays a different role.
Here in the US, and in developed countries around the world, it plays
the role of comic relief.
You play the role of chief lying bigot.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Keep in mind that Linux is more than just the kernel, it's also the
entire suite of Open Source Software, and the Open Standards, and this
is where Linux is really winning.
huh? The OS standard is MS Windows. The office standard is MS Office.
The game platform standard is MS Windows.
A de facto standard is not a real standard.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
But it certainly looks like both Apple and Linux are eating into
Microsoft's share of the desktop,
More importantly, Vista has stalled severely.
Lie. All the same ridiculous cola-bozo claims about Vista are more
sour-grapes guzzling like you maniacs did with XP, and 2000, and Win98, etc.
Lie.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft took a huge gamble at several levels.
I'm quite sure it will pay off.
Post by Rex Ballard
They tried to make Vista an "All or Nothing" proposition.
Lie
No, it isn't.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
They were hoping to force Linux completely off the PC platform.
Lie
You ar enow saying Microsoft wants Linux taking userbase from them?
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their license agreements.
Lie
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their OEM agreements.
Lie
Prove it.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
They wrote this into their software.
Lie
AARD code.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
They added features which would allow Microsoft to prevent the
installations of boot managers
Lie
Prove it.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
prevent the installation of virtualization software
Lie
Prove it.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
and prevent the installation of software that has not been "certified"
as safe by Microsoft.
Lie
Prove it.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Microsoft also required end-users to grant them permission to disable
their computers if Microsoft detected a license violation, which could
be falsely triggered by such things as disk partitioning, disk
replacement, or adding disks.
I'm not sure disabled is the right word;
Diasble is the right word.
Post by DFS
click the button to activate
your licensed copy of Vista and everything's peachy.
Post by Rex Ballard
It all backfired. Microsoft inappropriately killed lots of innocent
computers.
Lie. A few, maybe.
Too many.
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
They alienated Linux users against Vista.
As if Linux idiots aren't already angry, alienated bozos.
... like you are a lying bigot?
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
Unfortunately,
this included many corporate customers who mandated that all new PCs be
"Linux Ready" in case Microsoft tried to disable their licenses.
This is just the voices in your head...
(snip rest of DFS lying drivel).
--
Rick
t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
2008-01-04 05:19:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
PC unit volumes are down, prices have eroded to pre-XP prices, even
though they now have twice as much memory, storage, and CPU power.
Nice! For that you can thank Microsoft: enormous worldwide adoption of
Windows PCs drove down hardware costs due to economies of scale.
The idea that Microsoft is responsible for the rapid adoption of
personal computers is just plain silly. Bill Gates was very
smart in recognizing the opportunity presented with the emerging
PC market and very shrewed in the deals he cut with IBM and other
vendors to make sure MS was the one riding the coattails of the
PC market expansion... but face it, if MS had not been the vendor
supplying the software, some other company would have stepped
into the gap. The software we use today would look a bit
different, but all the basic capabilities would still be their
as nearly every major feature decision made by MS was driven
by market forces that would have driven another software vendor
to similar choices.

Or are you so sort of MS cultist who thinks we would be using
or PCs as doorstops if Bill Gates had never been born?
Post by DFS
Post by Rex Ballard
There seems to be a dearth of market statistics.
How many OpenGL compatible adapters were sold?
Nobody cares. We want DirectX 10 cards.
Isn't DX10 for Vista only? All the gamers I know are sticking
with XP. Actually, one of them has switched to Linux, but I
guess that by definition makes him no longer a gamer since
we've been told repeatedly you can't game on Linux. Of course
for this guy, WoW and Eve Online have become less like games and
something more like a lifestyle choice, so perhaps its true.

In related news, I'm seeing a serious increase in OpenGL
gaming development out in the consulting space. It seems the
increase in mobile computing and handheld gaming systems is
driving it. Windows is not what these systems are running,
so DirectX is not even an option. This is having positive
side effects for Linux as vendors improve video drivers and
related software for these various mobile and embedded
systems. Those improvements flow back to the desktop
community.

Cheers.

Thad
--
Yeah, I drank the Open Source cool-aid... Unlike the other brand, it had
all the ingredients on the label.
Tim Smith
2008-01-04 19:37:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
The idea that Microsoft is responsible for the rapid adoption of
personal computers is just plain silly. Bill Gates was very
smart in recognizing the opportunity presented with the emerging
PC market and very shrewed in the deals he cut with IBM and other
vendors to make sure MS was the one riding the coattails of the
PC market expansion... but face it, if MS had not been the vendor
supplying the software, some other company would have stepped
into the gap. The software we use today would look a bit
It's interesting to speculate what might have been had MS not supplied
the OS. Remember, Bill Gates thought that the road to success was as an
application and development tools vendor. His prediction was that the
personal computer world would have many different successful,
incompatible, architectures, all sharing the market. Intel, Zilog,
National Semiconductor, Motorola--they all had 16-bit and 32-bit chips
upcoming.

Gates' vision was that Microsoft would do its applications for them all,
and its tools for them all. And to make that easier on Microsoft, there
should be one OS that would run on them all. And that OS was Unix.
That's why they were one of the earliest promotors of Unix on
microprocessors, in the form of Xenix.

When IBM asked Microsoft to supply the OS for the PC, MS didn't want to.
They sent IBM to DR. When that didn't work out, MS still didn't want
to. It was only after they were unofficially told that if MS didn't add
supplying the OS to their software proposal, IBM would probably cancel
the project, that MS agreed to come up with an OS somehow.

If only they had held out a little longer, and stuck to Gates' vision,
IBM might have cancelled the PC, and Unix would be the dominant desktop
OS, on a dozen different processor architectures, with full commercial
software support.
--
--Tim Smith
Rex Ballard
2008-01-05 08:32:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Smith
Post by t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
The idea that Microsoft is responsible for the rapid adoption of
personal computers is just plain silly.
Actually, not as silly as you might think. Bill and Steve Jobs were
major pioneers in making PCs affordable, easy to use, and useful.

Bill wanted to get into the PC market, and saw the MITS Altair as his
ticket in. He had worked for a time-share company in high school, and
managed to get his hands on DEC BASIC (binary or source?) by
convincing the company to sell backup tapes to his computer club. He
knew which tapes had the BASIC on it, and pulled it aside for
himself. Many years later, Bill admitted that he did this, and cut a
settlement deal to make restitution to DEC.

The ALTAIR was programmed using a bank of switches to load address and
data, which was used to load a paper tape loader program, which then
let you load the application. Eventually, you could interface to the
computer with a teletype device. Ugly, but it worked.

Steve Wozniak figured out how to combine a graphics display with a
6502 processor, and a keyboard. They had to show it to HP, and
fortunately for Jobs and Wozniak, HP was not interested at the time.
Steve Jobs went to dozens of banks to get funding to build more
computers. Eventually, a venture capitalist backed him, and the Apple
was moved from a wooden case to a plastic case, and the 7 inch monitor
was replaced with a 14 inch monitor, or an RF modulator like those
used for game machines.

But Bill Gates soon became the "go to" person for companies who wanted
BASIC for their computers. He ported BASIC to the Comodore PET, then
the TRS-80, and THEN he approached IBM. When Gary Kildal refused to
sign a nondisclosure agreement that he had been told by his lawyer
would give IBM the rights to CP/M (which was already the leading OS in
business desktop computers of numerous types), Bill Gates told them he
had an operating system, and could make it enough like CP/M to satisfy
most customers.

Keep in mind that Microsoft did have an Operating System, but it was
Xenix, and it ran on the 68000 processor, not the 8086. Gates had
bluffed IBM into buying an operating system from Microsoft that
Microsoft didn't even own yet. It wasn't the first time Microsoft had
engaged in a fraudulent contract, and it wouldn't be the last.
Instead of giving IBM an 8086 version of Xenix, Gates had Paul Allen
buy a CP/M work-alike called Q-DOS (Quick and Dirty Operating System),
from Seattle Computer Company. The irony is that the source code for
Q-DOS had been published in a ham radio magazine or an early hobbiest
computer magazine (I think it was 73) about 2 years earlier, but
Microsoft wanted exclusive rights. Seattle Computer didn't make any
money with QDOS and had lots of debts. Allen offered $150,000 for
exclusive rights, and the offer was eagerly accepted. Many years
later, Microsoft paid the owners of SCC substantially more to make
restitution.
Post by Tim Smith
Post by t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
Bill Gates was very
smart in recognizing the opportunity presented with the emerging
PC market and very shrewed in the deals he cut with IBM and other
vendors
Shrewd is one word for it. Many of his dealings, even in the earliest
days bordered on the verge of fraud, extortion, and blackmail. Much
of this may have been because there were two Bill Gates' involved.
One was the 22 year old nerd with the squeaky voice and birth control
glasses (Trey), but the other was a brilliant corporate lawyer, with a
reputation for writing one-sided contracts that were loaded with
loopholes to make it look like a fair deal, and a pechant for voiding
the contracts the minute a perceived violation had been detected
(Deuce).

If these companies had been sitting across from Deuce, they would have
been much more cautious, they would have been wary of the deal, and
they would have had their lawyers going over it with a fine-tooth
comb. Instead, facing Trey, they thought they were in the stronger
position, and in many cases, appeared to be beating Trey into total
submission when he introduced a few minor changes in exchange for his
concessions (written by Deuce, along with innocent scenarios that made
the new provisions seem reasonable). Deuce also had a deep
understanding of a brand new change in copyright law (did he have a
role in drafting it?). He had a profound understanding of the power
of the copyright license.

Perhaps Deuce didn't even tell Trey what the new clauses were really
for. This would have prevented psychics and telepaths from detecting
the scam.

And Deuce was smart. Instead of forming the company with himself as
President, he gave that role Trey, and took the role of corporate
council. This let them avoid inheritance taxes, income tax issues,
and eliminated or reduced non-compete issues.

Trey's mom was no slouch either. She was very active in charity work,
which had her rubbing shoulders with corporate leaders, investment
bankers, and politicians. She was very helpful in making sure that
the microcomputer was kept unregulated, while Microsoft continued to
thrive in her husband's brilliant knowledge of copyright law, and he
son's disarming "face". I'm not sure that even they realized that
their son would eventually become the richest man on earth.

Bill's dad (Deuce) also understood corporate law very well. When
Microsoft incorporated and went public, they made sure that Bill,
Paul, and Steve retained controlling interest in the company. It
would be impossible for investment bankers to force any kind of take-
over or management change.
Post by Tim Smith
Post by t***@tux.glaci.delete-this.com
to make sure MS was the one riding the coattails of the
PC market expansion... but face it, if MS had not been the vendor
supplying the software, some other company would have stepped
into the gap. The software we use today would look a bit
Remember, Microsoft wasn't the first choice. IBM had approach DRI
first. They probably talked to some other companies as well. The
problem for IBM is that CP/M and MP/M were cutting into their
markets. They had already pretty much killed the market for the
Series 1, and was a direct threat to System 360 (IBM later offered 360
in a PC hardware framework).
Post by Tim Smith
It's interesting to speculate what might have been had MS not supplied
the OS.
IBM was very wary of AT&T. They liked UNIX, but they didn't want to
deal with them directly. Perhaps one of the attractions of Microsoft
is that they had permission to distribute Xenix, and to sell it to
IBM.
Post by Tim Smith
Remember, Bill Gates thought that the road to success was as an
application and development tools vendor.
Only initially. There was a point, perhaps during his work with the
TRS-80, that he decided that he wanted to make sure that Microsoft was
"Indespensible". Microsoft had several competitors in the BASIC
market, and most vendors charged much less (retail) than Microsoft
did. But Microsoft had figured out that he could make a computer
maker purchase enough licenses for all of the computers he hoped to
sell, if they though Microsoft would team up with a competitor and do
something better.

What Gates did was play the manufacturers against each other. He told
MITS that unless they paid him $150,000 for 3,000 licenses for
Microsoft Basic, he would port it to the SWTP 6800 machine, which, at
the time, was MITS most successful competitor. MITS took the deal,
but made Microsoft promise not to port BASIC to any 6800 processor,
they probably demanded a complete non-compete, but Microsoft conceded
to it only when the scope was limited to the 6800, but they
appearently offered to sweeten the deal by giving them BASIC in ROM.
A few months later, Bill published a long article in an electronics
magazine explaining why it was impossible to put BASIC in ROM for the
MITS because of it's S-100 bus and all of the options. Just weeks
later, Commodore announced the PET, with Microsoft BASIC in ROM.
Since the PET used the 6502 processor, Microsoft hadn't violated their
contract with MITS, but MITS was out of business.

There's some interesting reading in "Windows NT - The Next Generation"
by Len Feldman, published by Sams books - copyright 1993. Also, the
movie "Pirates of Silicon Valley", was scripted from actual public
quotes of Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer, Paul Allen, Steve Jobs, and Steve
Wozniac (along with many others). By making it part of day to day
personal dialog, the movie became more intimate and dramatic.

Also, look at
http://www.thocp.net/companies/microsoft/microsoft_company.htm

Microsoft played Commodore against MITS, then played Tandy against
Commodore, and then played IBM against Tandy. But when Gates landed
IBM, he obtained the right to sell the new OS to other vendors.
Instead of charging IBM a huge flat rate and giving them the software,
Microsoft created the software and then licensed it to IBM, in
exchange for a minimum commitment. It was a trick Microsoft learned
back in their days with MITS.
Post by Tim Smith
His prediction was that the
personal computer world would have many different successful,
incompatible, architectures, all sharing the market. Intel, Zilog,
National Semiconductor, Motorola--they all had 16-bit and 32-bit chips
upcoming.
Which was why Microsoft feared UNIX so completely. When Berkely came
out with BSD Unix, and AT&T started licensing Version 7 UNIX
commercially, they were available in source code format. It wasn't
cheap, it was nearly $45,000 for the tapes containing all of the
source code and documentation, but all you had to do to port UNIX to a
new platform was write the C compiler and/or the assembler that could
convert metacode into machine code.

Several companies had created UNIX based on Version 6 UNIX, including
Microsoft. But Version 6 had some severe limitations. It relied on
segmented memory. Scheduling was complex, and interprocess
communications was limited to pipes between parents and children. BSD
introduced mechanisms to communicate between processes using servers.
It was an early form of what we now call sockets, but it did work. In
effect, it was a "ram disk" pipe.

BSD 4.0 and later introduced sockets, named pipes, and shared memory.
This allowed the creation of creation of servers to coordinate
resources.

Microsoft had gone the other direction. They wanted to make all
computers identical. They had become a critical element of IBM's PC,
and they had permission to license MS-DOS to anybody they wanted. IBM
was OK with it too, because they were willing to license hardware,
BIOS, and other things they controlled to Microsoft's other customers
as well. Ironically, IBM may have made more money on the $3-4
licenses than they made on the computers themselves. IBM only
produced about 250,000 computers their first year. Microsoft's
licenses to Compaq, NEC, and all of those other computer makers, made
it possible to produce and market over 1 million computers over the
next year. It fueled more demand for PCs, and IBM was able to ramp up
it's own production.
Post by Tim Smith
Gates' vision was that Microsoft would do its applications for them all,
and its tools for them all. And to make that easier on Microsoft, there
should be one OS that would run on them all.
Gates, Jobs, and IBM all understood the importance of information.
IBM had been controlling a huge amount of information, through it's
mainframes. Every credit card transaction, every check, every
telephone call, every tax deduction, all were recorded in the form of
transaction records on IBM computers in companies all over the world.
IBM considered itself a trustee of that information, and screened it's
people very carefully. They had the demeanor of accountants, because
the majority of the information they stored, was accounting
information, tax information, and customer information used for
mailings, telephone solicitations, and marketing campaigns.

Steve Jobs understood the impact of controlling all of this
information. He understood that if people had personal computers,
they would put even more information on their computers. His vision
was to keep as much of this information as possible personal, private,
and to disclose only the portion that was actually needed for
compliance with tax laws and other regulatory agencies.

Bill Gates had a twisted vision which combined both worlds. He also
saw the power of all that information, and what would happen if people
put even more information into their PCs, and if all that information
could be accessed and controlled by Microsoft.

Even as early as late 1983, Bill Gates had a vision of World
Domination. In an interview with Byte (I think), he outlined every
step of the plan. He would make Microsoft's operating system the only
one used an anybody's personal computer. Then Microsoft would make
sure that all of the applications were Microsoft's. Then Microsoft
would get all of the computers networked together, so that they could
exchange documents, conduct financial transactions, and even personal
correspondence, and they would do it through a network controlled by
Microsoft.

Microsoft could use this information to help pick leaders who would
act in the best interests of Microsoft, and eventually, by controlling
the flow of information, to the press, to government agencies, to
military, Microsoft would be able to pick leaders for every country in
the world, achieve world peace, and world domination. Simply put, it
wasn't even 1984 yet, and Bill Gates was declaring that he would
become George Orwell's "Big Brother".

At the time, Microsoft had just outgrown Lotus as the world's largest
software company, which wasn't saying much. The software industry
wasn't that big. There were lots of little companies, and the big
computer companies put the systems together as a package, so there was
no way to measure software revenue distinct from hardware.
Microsoft's revenues were only about $50 million, for the year. It
was very hard to take this young nerd with the squeaking voice and a
$50 million/year company seriously as a global dictator.

However, in 1983, ARPA had a proof of concept for TCP/IP, called the
Dahlgren project. The Unix administrators had formed a UUCP network
that was passing messages all over the country in just a few hours.
Everything Bill Gates promised in his article had already been done,
on UNIX.

Perhaps this is why, when Richard Stallman asked for help protecting
his code from vendors who would try to steal it and turn it into
proprietary software, there were so many people in the net.legal group
who were willing to help formulate the GPL. Perhaps this is why, when
the GPL was finally drafted, so many people contributed their software
and published it under the GPL. UNIX applications were usually
published in source code format, because they had to be ported to so
many different platforms, and having them protected by the GPL helped
to protect them from predatory companies who would steal the code,
release only the binary, and put everything under strict nondisclosure
agreements, the way AT&T had tried to do with System V with BSD code.
Post by Tim Smith
And that OS was Unix.
That's why they were one of the earliest promotors of Unix on
microprocessors, in the form of Xenix.
Remember, AT&T could not sell, distribute, or even market UNIX. They
had a monopoly on the telephone system, and Judge Green had barred
them from going into computers. AT&T accepted divestature because
they knew that competition was inevitable, and they hoped that getting
into the IT business would open up their market. But in 1976, prior
to the implementation of copyright laws that provided for licenses,
AT&T sent copies of Version 6 UNIX to dozens of Universities, telling
them to use it as a learning tool, and see what they could do.
Post by Tim Smith
When IBM asked Microsoft to supply the OS for the PC, MS didn't want to.
They sent IBM to DR. When that didn't work out, MS still didn't want to.
There are probably a dozen different versions of the story. Ballmer
said that IBM just wanted BASIC. IBM said that they approached DRI
first, but Kildall wouldn't sign a nondisclosure agreement, and didn't
make an acceptable counter-offer. According to Ballmer, it was Gates
who told IBM they already had an operating system, and that they could
tailor it to the PC. It's best dramatized in the movie "Pirates of
Silicon Valley".

Even Microsoft's different "official" versions of the story are varied
and conflicting. Most of the IBM staff involved have retired. Paul
Allen resigned from Microsoft shortly after Bill's "World Domination"
interview, and often backed Microsoft's competitors. I suppose one
could go to a library and dig up the ancient archives of Byte, PC-
Week, 73 magazine, and other ancient archives, and maybe they could
come up with their own version of "Pirates of Silicon Valley".

Unfortunately, the Usnet postings were rarely archived. Most usenet
nodes were colleges, and they didn't have the budget to spend $200 per
day on tapes of usenet news posts. Corporations archived some
administrative groups, and some of those groups have cross-postings to
other groups, but many of the discussion groups were purged without
being backed up.
Post by Tim Smith
It was only after they were unofficially told that if MS didn't add
supplying the OS to their software proposal, IBM would probably cancel
the project, that MS agreed to come up with an OS somehow.
Which version did that come from? Most of the details of these
meetings were not recorded, but I don't recall hearing this version
before. Of course, after 25 years, nobody has a really good memory of
the details.
Post by Tim Smith
If only they had held out a little longer, and stuck to Gates' vision,
I don't think Gates ever planned to give Xenix to IBM, and even if
they did, it's possible that IBM didn't want it. Remember, a smart PC
was too dangerous to IBM. CP/M had already killed the Series 1 market
even before it got started. IBM may have feared that UNIX would kill
MVS if given a chance. Ironically, 18 years later, UNIX (Linux)
actually CREATED a new market for IBM mainframes, and most of their
hardware revenue would come from UNIX and it's variants (AIX and
Linux).
Post by Tim Smith
IBM might have cancelled the PC,
IBM couldn't cancel the PC. They wanted the PC to be more of a "smart
terminal". Originally, the first PCs didn't even come with Floppies
as standard equipment. Even the hardware was based on a 3270
terminal. Even the PCs that did have a floppy only had a 360 kb
drive, and 64 kilobytes of RAM.

Letting competitors control the PC would have meant the possibility of
computers that could blow IBM's big iron out of the water. If UNIX
had shown up on PC hardware, in 1983, and had flourished for 4-5
years, IBM wouldn't have had the time to adapt to the new market. IBM
did license UNIX for AIX, and eventually became a major contributor to
Open Source projects such as Project Athena, but they wanted to make
sure that they could integrate IBM servers and IBM Mainframes with IBM
workstations the same way that they had integrated IBM terminals, IBM
terminal group controllers, and IBM Mainframes. If some of those
computers were competitors servers, that wasn't so bad, but at least
IBM would be in the game.

UNIX made the entire industry Schizophrenic. On one side, the legacy
hardware provided short term profits, and loyal customers were willing
to pay premium prices. On the other side, UNIX made it possible to
open new markets, create whole new forms of applications, and
integrate to competitor's systems as well as IBMs.

The problem was that the incentives at IBM, DEC, and even HP, were
contradictory. These companies wanted the new business, but the
commission structures made sales reps do everything they could to push
the proprietary products, even when it alienated the customers.

It was only when Lou Gerstner took control of the company and told his
sales people to "shut up and listen", and eventually turned about 70%
of the staff into consultants, focused on solving customer's problems,
instead of trying to sell them systems they didn't want, to solve
problems they didn't have, just to get a commission on a deal the
custotmer didn't want or need.

Sadly, it's now Microsoft who has lost touch with their customers. It
is Microsoft who is trying to force customers to buy upgrades they
don't want or need, to get new features they don't even want, and for
no other purpose than to maintain Microsoft revenue and profit levels.
Post by Tim Smith
and Unix would be the dominant desktop
Ultimately *nix, whether UNIX or Linux, will be the dominant desktop.
It's as inevitable as the way UNIX displaced VMS, Sperry, Harris, and
other proprietary operating systems on minicomputers, servers, and
even supercomputers and supercomputer grids.
Post by Tim Smith
OS, on a dozen different processor architectures,
Probably not so much. In much the same way that AMD and Intel have
tried to maintain instruction set compatibility even as they have
scaled up their architectures, I think the industry would have
narrowed down to 3-4 processor types, and common hardware and software
standards.
Post by Tim Smith
with full commercial software support.
And that's the real clincher isn't it? The value of software isn't
the copyright, or even the code, or even the binaries, it's the
support. There are lots of software applications, perhaps hundreds of
thousands, but the ones that survive, that thrive, that generate
$millions, or $billions, are the ones that are well supported.

Microsoft Windows 3.1 gained popularity, not because it was the best
technology, but because Microsoft took all the service calls for
Windows 3.0, Word, Excel, and PowerPoint, and took the solutions to
hundreds of thousands of frequent questions, and coded them into
context sensitive help, wizards, and even dancing paper clips.

Windows 95 and Windows 98 were popular because Microsoft took ALL of
the devices and had them provide vendor and device codes so that the
operating system could figure out what drivers to use, what settings
to use, and what configurations to use, without having to set jumpers,
dip switches, and cables, without having to manually install drivers
in just the right order, figure out which interrupts conflict with
each other, try to figure it out. Microsoft wasn't the first, (Linux
did it first), but Microsoft had the muscle to disable the Linux Plug-
and-Play while creating a Plug-n-Play system that only Microsoft could
decode completely.

Windows XP was popular, because Microsoft updated it automatically.
No more waiting months or years for a major release. Most of the
updates were called security updates but most were bug fixes and new
enhancements.

But alas, Windows NT 3.x, Windows ME, and Windows Vista have been more
of the "buy this upgrade because we need the money". Sure there is
some cute eye candy, but it doesn't really solve problems.

And Vista has to compete with Linux, which has been focused on
solutions to business problems, and for this reason, Linux and Unix
should soon take their place as the dominant operating systems, with
or without Microsoft's help.
Post by Tim Smith
--Tim Smith
Rex Ballard
Linonut
2008-01-05 15:47:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rex Ballard
Bill wanted to get into the PC market, and saw the MITS Altair as his
ticket in. He had worked for a time-share company in high school, and
managed to get his hands on DEC BASIC (binary or source?) by
convincing the company to sell backup tapes to his computer club. He
knew which tapes had the BASIC on it, and pulled it aside for
himself. Many years later, Bill admitted that he did this, and cut a
settlement deal to make restitution to DEC.
I thought he (also?) did some dumpster diving at DEC when he was at
Harvard, using Harvard computer time to run his business.
Post by Rex Ballard
Keep in mind that Microsoft did have an Operating System, but it was
Xenix, and it ran on the 68000 processor, not the 8086.
I think you may be getting the chronology mixed up.

Although it is amusing that Microsoft used a form of UNIX to write their
software for some time, until their own stuff was useable enough that
they could "eat their own dog food".
Post by Rex Ballard
Gates had
bluffed IBM into buying an operating system from Microsoft that
Microsoft didn't even own yet. It wasn't the first time Microsoft had
engaged in a fraudulent contract, and it wouldn't be the last.
No sheet!
Post by Rex Ballard
Shrewd is one word for it. Many of his dealings, even in the earliest
days bordered on the verge of fraud, extortion, and blackmail. Much
of this may have been because there were two Bill Gates' involved.
One was the 22 year old nerd with the squeaky voice and birth control
glasses (Trey), but the other was a brilliant corporate lawyer, with a
reputation for writing one-sided contracts that were loaded with
loopholes to make it look like a fair deal, and a pechant for voiding
the contracts the minute a perceived violation had been detected
(Deuce).
What is this, a James Patterson novel? <grin>

I think Trey and Deuce were later reborn as Pearly and Emballmer.

Anyway, Rex, if you could write this stuff up, get it vetted and cleaned
up and verified, with a nice index and a full bibliography, you might
have a minor muck-racking best-seller on your hands.
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Linonut
2008-01-05 15:31:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Smith
When IBM asked Microsoft to supply the OS for the PC, MS didn't want to.
They sent IBM to DR. When that didn't work out, MS still didn't want
to. It was only after they were unofficially told that if MS didn't add
supplying the OS to their software proposal, IBM would probably cancel
the project, that MS agreed to come up with an OS somehow.
If only they had held out a little longer, and stuck to Gates' vision,
IBM might have cancelled the PC, and Unix would be the dominant desktop
OS, on a dozen different processor architectures, with full commercial
software support.
An interesting speculation. One preventer for it, though, was the PC
hardware itself. PC's were still using DOS memory extenders when UNIX
machines were handling 32+ Mb.

And the processor speeds!

Apart from the openness of the project and the growing availability of
broadband, the other thing that's let Linux into so many homes is the
capacious hardware. Would you say that PC hardware lags "mini" hardware
by about 10 years?
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Linonut
2008-01-04 12:36:40 UTC
Permalink
<all snipped>

You go Rex! Keep DFS busy while GNU/Linux keeps moving forward.
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DFS
2008-01-04 14:14:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
<all snipped>
Lazy bastuhd.
Post by Linonut
You go Rex! Keep DFS busy while GNU/Linux keeps moving forward.
You may be right. In the time it took me answer Rex's post, OSS wacko
developers took the opportunity to [again] put off writing documentation.
Ewok
2008-01-03 18:46:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
I used to say that about their mouse, too, but recently I've switched
to Logitech and like it much better (costs more, though). My
keyboard is an IBM/Lenovo. Need to find one without the Microsoft
flag.
If you want to have a keyboard without the windows flag, here are som
examples of those that don't. I'm pretty certain that neither of these
are what you are looking for, maybe the last.

http://www.daskeyboard.com/

Das keyboard is a really exclusive keyboard, for anyone who want to
learn to type fast. Then there is the budget version of das keyboard,
that is called bzerk blank. I got that one, and think that it is
really good. It takes a little time to get used to. I still make alot
of typos after 2 to 3 weeks of using it, but I'm getting alot faster.

Then there is happy hacking keyboard, which might be something that
you are looking for.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Hacking_Keyboard

It exists in three different version, of which only one is available
today. It is slimmer and lacks a lot of the keys that exists on
ordinary keyboards, but those are often unnecessary and makes you
slower at typing.

/Your friendly neighbourhood Ewok
n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
2008-01-03 20:01:02 UTC
Permalink
Thanks for the info on keyboards!
alt
2008-01-03 01:06:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
As a matter of principle, I won't purchase or recommend for purchase
anything branded with the Microsoft label unless absolutely necessary.
Roy Schestowitz
2008-01-03 01:52:21 UTC
Permalink
____/ alt on Thursday 03 January 2008 01:06 : \____
Post by alt
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
As a matter of principle, I won't purchase or recommend for purchase
anything branded with the Microsoft label unless absolutely necessary.
if you feed the ogres, they'll never leave.
--
~~ Best of wishes

"The number of developers working on improving Linux vastly exceeds the number
of Microsoft developers working on Windows NT."
--Paul Maritz, Microsoft
Linonut
2008-01-03 03:09:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by alt
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
As a matter of principle, I won't purchase or recommend for purchase
anything branded with the Microsoft label unless absolutely necessary.
The MS Ergonomic 4000 was on sale at Office Depot. But gone by the time
I got there. So now I'm thinking of ordering an Inland Ergonomic via
Tiger Direct. Probably still has the Genuine Monopoly Logo on it, though.
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[H]omer
2008-01-03 18:16:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Post by alt
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
As a matter of principle, I won't purchase or recommend for purchase
anything branded with the Microsoft label unless absolutely necessary.
The MS Ergonomic 4000 was on sale at Office Depot. But gone by the time
I got there. So now I'm thinking of ordering an Inland Ergonomic via
Tiger Direct. Probably still has the Genuine Monopoly Logo on it, though.
Get a Cherry Linux keyboard:

http://www.cherry.de/english/products/specials_g83-6188_linux.htm
--
K.
http://slated.org

.----
| "[Microsoft] are willing to lose money for years and years just to
| make sure that you don't make any money, either." - Bob Cringely.
| - http://blog.businessofsoftware.org/2007/07/cringely-the-un.html
`----

Fedora release 8 (Werewolf) on sky, running kernel 2.6.23.8-63.fc8
18:14:48 up 13 days, 15:50, 4 users, load average: 1.63, 1.30, 0.85
Linonut
2008-01-03 23:07:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by [H]omer
Post by Linonut
The MS Ergonomic 4000 was on sale at Office Depot. But gone by the time
I got there. So now I'm thinking of ordering an Inland Ergonomic via
Tiger Direct. Probably still has the Genuine Monopoly Logo on it, though.
http://www.cherry.de/english/products/specials_g83-6188_linux.htm
Nah, I want an ergo one. Turns out Office Depot had them stocked in an
out of the way spot, so I got one now. Not bad, need to loosen up the
keys a bit and get used to the Microsoft key spacing.

Turns out there's a lot of information and some kernel support for the
idiot buttons, too.
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Hadron
2008-01-06 21:10:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by alt
Post by Linonut
Their keyboards aren't too bad though.
As a matter of principle, I won't purchase or recommend for purchase
anything branded with the Microsoft label unless absolutely necessary.
You are SO tough.

Tim Smith
2008-01-03 04:47:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft' embarrassing predicament a the
hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid updates
that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year's
iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano
with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser
and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.
Already reported as sold. What other MS product does that sound like?
On the other hand, Zune isn't the only player that was trounced by iPod.
All of the others were, too. Just compare among the non-iPod players,
and Zune is actually doing well. Among hard disk players, it seems to
have one of the best price/capacity ratios. It's main problem there is
iPod--the iPod Classic has the same price/capacity ratio for the 80 GB
model, and iPod also offers 160 GB which beats it, and the others.

Of course, iPod exists, so doing well among the non-iPods isn't all that
spectacular.
--
--Tim Smith
Linonut
2008-01-03 12:33:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Smith
... Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, ...
Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.
On the other hand, Zune isn't the only player that was trounced by iPod.
All of the others were, too. Just compare among the non-iPod players,
and Zune is actually doing well.
What, all the other manufacturers are also dumping their already-sold
hardware at fire-sale prices?
Post by Tim Smith
Among hard disk players, it seems to
have one of the best price/capacity ratios. It's main problem there is
iPod--the iPod Classic has the same price/capacity ratio for the 80 GB
model, and iPod also offers 160 GB which beats it, and the others.
Of course, iPod exists, so doing well among the non-iPods isn't all that
spectacular.
The point is, I think, that Microsoft's big crusher fell flat, and
Microsoft, unlike Apple, doesn't seem to have a follow-through plan.
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chrisv
2008-01-03 17:51:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Post by Tim Smith
On the other hand, Zune isn't the only player that was trounced by iPod.
All of the others were, too. Just compare among the non-iPod players,
and Zune is actually doing well.
What, all the other manufacturers are also dumping their already-sold
hardware at fire-sale prices?
Post by Tim Smith
Among hard disk players, it seems to
have one of the best price/capacity ratios. It's main problem there is
iPod--the iPod Classic has the same price/capacity ratio for the 80 GB
model, and iPod also offers 160 GB which beats it, and the others.
Of course, iPod exists, so doing well among the non-iPods isn't all that
spectacular.
The point is, I think, that Microsoft's big crusher fell flat, and
Microsoft, unlike Apple, doesn't seem to have a follow-through plan.
I would also point-out that the Zune has failed despite the benefit of
a massive marketing campaign, the buying of "end-cap space" in stores,
etc, that other "non Ipods" have not had. Not to mention Micro$oft's
brand-name recognition and support of the Zune.

*unplonk* Timmy Smith. (It's slow around here.)
Tim Smith
2008-01-03 20:03:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
Post by Tim Smith
On the other hand, Zune isn't the only player that was trounced by iPod.
All of the others were, too. Just compare among the non-iPod players,
and Zune is actually doing well.
What, all the other manufacturers are also dumping their already-sold
hardware at fire-sale prices?
I'm not talking about the ones that were on sale. The current models,
at their regular price, are doing well among the non-iPod players. For
example, when I check the Amazon top sellers for MP3 players, more often
than not, it is a current Zune that is the first non-iPod among the sea
of iPods in the top 15.
--
--Tim Smith
Linonut
2008-01-03 23:13:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Smith
Post by Linonut
Post by Tim Smith
On the other hand, Zune isn't the only player that was trounced by iPod.
All of the others were, too. Just compare among the non-iPod players,
and Zune is actually doing well.
What, all the other manufacturers are also dumping their already-sold
hardware at fire-sale prices?
I'm not talking about the ones that were on sale. The current models,
at their regular price, are doing well among the non-iPod players. For
example, when I check the Amazon top sellers for MP3 players, more often
than not, it is a current Zune that is the first non-iPod among the sea
of iPods in the top 15.
Cool. I did not know you were interested in Zunes.

What's the regular price of the current Zune? What is the fire-sale
price of the previous Zune? What was regular price of the previous
Zune?
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Tim Smith
2008-01-04 02:23:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Linonut
What's the regular price of the current Zune? What is the fire-sale
price of the previous Zune? What was regular price of the previous
Zune?
The old 30 gig listed for $200 (I'm not going to do "to the cents"
pricing...$199.99 will be $200 in this post), and goes for $160 at
Amazon. I think it has been down to around $130.

The new 80 gig lists for $249. The new 8 gig flash model lists for
$200, and the 4 gig for $149.

The iPod classic lists for $249 for 80 gig, and $349 for 160 gig. (The
later seems to be the best deal in MP3 players at the moment, for those
looking for large capacity. There are a couple other companies with 160
gig players, but they are targeted more toward video, add some features
the iPod lacks, and cost quite a bit more).

Hardware features and capabilities of the 80 gig Zune seem comparable to
the iPod classic, except the Zune adds FM radio, and I think a couple
other things. I haven't seen their software, but I seem to recall
reviews saying it was OK, but Apple had better.

The new iPod nano lists for $149 for 4 gig, $199 for 8 gig.

Apple also has the tiny iPod shuffle, at $79 (1 gig), and the iPod
touch, which lists for $299 for 8 GB and $399 for 16 GB. Think iPhone
without the phone.

So, while they have not yet seriously challenged Apple, they seem to be
the only one that is at least moving in that direction. Of course,
Apple isn't standing still.
--
--Tim Smith
DFS
2008-01-04 03:07:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Smith
The old 30 gig listed for $200 (I'm not going to do "to the cents"
pricing...$199.99 will be $200 in this post),
I insist you do so, Mr. Pedantic. $200.00 is NOT $199.99. Quit
exaggerating the cost.
amicus_curious
2008-01-03 19:10:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by n***@wigner.berkeley.edu
<Quote>
Daniel Eran Dilger
John Dvorak looked back at "another crappy career year for tech" and
decided "Microsoft, Apple, and Google were to blame." Being right on
one count out of three isn't a bad record for Dvorak, who typically
gets everything wrong. Considering his self-flagellating lamentations
of 2007 in PC Mag makes for a comical framework for looking back at a
year that was particularly distressing to Windows Enthusiasts.
Dvorak's Crapy Year.
Among the problems for his "crappy" 2007 was that some irrelevant
dictionary added "w00t" as its word of the year, and that the scrappy
Nintendo Wii humiliated the Microsoft Xbox 360 and Sony PlayStation 3,
as I predicted would likely happen. Microsoft was well represented in
his list of complaints, with the WGA fiasco and the Windows Vista
Yawn.
PlayStation 3 vs. Xbox 360 vs. Nintendo Wii
Clearly, 2007 was not a good year for Microsoft, but Dvorak forgot to
The Zune: nobody cared about Microsoft' embarrassing predicament a the
hands of the iPod throughout 2007. After squirting out a tepid updates
that made it look more competitive with the low end of last year's
iPod line, Apple countered Microsoft's best efforts with the release
of a series of new models that trounced Zune 2.0, from the thin Nano
with games and video output to the Touch featuring a full web browser
and live podcast playback over the web. Microsoft was left only to
brag that it was finally able to sell off most of its 2006 inventory-
already reported as sold-at fire sale prices.
Windows Mobile: after struggling for a decade to get WinCE installed
on something, Microsoft's plans largely focused on mobile smartphones.
Unfortunately, in 2007 Apple targeted the same market with a device
even hotter than the iPod. Even worse, while far more sophisticated
and attractive, the iPhone paired with a service plan costs hundreds
less than an entry level Windows Mobile phone such as the basic
Motorola Q. No wonder Apple outsold the entire range of Windows Mobile
devices in its first quarter of sales, and ended up with a stronger
showing in web stats than every other mobile browser combined.
Proprietary Formats: one key element to Microsoft's monopolistic
control over the PC has been its use of proprietary formats to force
users into buying everything from Microsoft. However, in 2007 a
variety of events eroded into that stranglehold. Windows Media DRM was
given the final boot in audio with MPEG AAC, and video with H.264. The
ISO rejected Microsoft's OOXML advanced to replace the existing Open
Document standard for productivity applications. Even DirectX is
facing increasing competition from Mac, Linux, Playstation, and Wii
applications that all use OpenGL for their graphics.
The Vista Yawn: Microsoft discovered, as I predicted, that 2007 wasn't
going to be like 1995. Retail Vista sales were disappointing to say
the least, corporate interest was simply absent, and even hardware
makers balked at loading up Vista Home Basic and forcing their users
to upgrade to a more expensive version that actually works as
expected.
Windows 95 and Vista: Why 2007 Won't Be Like 1995
Vista uptake has been reported to be about half that of Windows XP,
despite the fact that the PC market has grown significantly since 2001
and the reality that many Windows PC users regularly buy new computers
just to run away from their old infected machines rather than paying
to clean their old system out. Exacerbating the Vista problem is the
pestilent detail that an increasing number of users are now buying
Macs so they can run both yesterday's Windows XP and upgrade to Mac OS
X without the security problems, spyware, and adware push.
[Dvorak's April 07 comment that Vista's problems due to PC makers...]
Dvorak recommended that Microsoft build its own PC and screw over its
Windows licensee partners. Yes, that worked so well with the Zune!
Perhaps if Microsoft shipped its own Windows PC, it wouldn't break
compatibility between its MS PC and third party boxes, but imagine the
profits behind selling Office for MS PC-Windows separately from Office
for regular Windows.
The downside to Dvorak's hardware fantasy is that Microsoft has no
expertise in making or marketing functional hardware. Look at the
billion dollar losses behind the Xbox line, along with its 33% or
greater record for hardware failure. And look at what Microsoft did to
WebTV, MSNTV, and even its best ideas for music players, handheld
gaming, SPOT watches and other hardware that all stunk to high heaven.
[Dvorak complaints about Apple, Google...]
Microsoft was up 19.2%, Google 50.2%, but Apple was up 133.5% [in
2007]. No wonder Dvorak is kvetching.
[Dvorak's bad predictions about iPhone...]
Of course, reality is beyond him because Dvorak has no technical
competency in predicting what will work out and what won't. Why does
Dvorak command $40,000 speaking engagements despite not having written
anything interesting, accurate, or thought provoking in the last
decade? He's a professional troll. Fortunately for him, nobody in the
speaking engagement circuit or sound-bite seeking world of New
Journalism cares about substance.
</Quote>
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/02/john-dvorak-conceeds-2007-was-a-%e2%80%9ccrappy-year%e2%80%9d-for-windows-enthusiasts/
Can you not find anyone more authoritative than this pathetic lamester to
cite? Good grief! You might as well make up your own rant as feed this
fool's tripe to the world. I didn't realize the current Berkley crowd was
so shy.

He begs for cash and click-throughs like a bower bum looking for a buck to
round out the purchase of another pint of muscatel.

He sneers at Dvorak for commanding high speaker fees and begs for pennies in
the same breath.

And he ignores that Vista has currently shipped some 130 million copies in
the first 11 months, far surpassing Win95 as he mistakenly claims had a
faster sales pace. How typical of the OSS folk.
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