Post by ZodPost by George J. DancePost by Will DockeryPost by George J. DanceLast week the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that the state government's lockdown was unconstitutional - that the executive's power to make emergency laws without the consent of the legislature was limited.
Since Wisconsin is philo's neck of the woods, I thought that might be worth discussing.
https://patch.com/georgia/midtown/s/h5rkn/georgia-reports-1-900-new-covid-19-cases-sets-single-day-record?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
"ATLANTA, GA — Georgia set a record Friday for new COVID-19 cases recorded in a 24-hour period: 1,900 cases in a day..."
On the same day, though, the state had 25 COVID-19 deaths. The surge in cases, that's happening in both Republican and Democratic states (though you wouldn't know about the latter by reading the news) is being paralleled with a continuous decline in deaths.
Sure, deaths lag new cases by about 23 days or so, so it's easy enough to worry about a coming death surge, but if that were to happen in Georgia, it should already have happened, since the state ended lockdown back on April 24. So what's going on?
I've been looking at the Georgia DPH COVID webpage, and I think there's a clue to the answer there, in the "Demographics" section. Of the 77,000 cases found to date in the state, the clear majority (41,570) are aged 18-49 - 3 demographic groups that have had only 2,858 hospitalizations and only 166 deaths (more than 100 of those 40-49, and just 13 aged 18-29).
I think we're seeing a major shift in social attitudes to the virus, based (as I think is normal and healthy) on putting self-interest first. When people in these age groups saw the virus as a mass killer, they isolated, at least as well as the older folk. However, now that they see it as potentially no worse than a coronavirus cold, more and more of them have started on the path to herd immunity.
If there's a surge in death cases, that could change, but I don't expect one. For one thing, hospitals haven't been "load-shedding" their long-term care patients into nursing homes like they were doing in March. For another, we now have at least one drug that works, and we've also learned about the dangers of ventilators.
TL/DR - yes, cases are surging, but that's not by itself a bad thing.
Yes, the death count is the bottom line, agreed....
Georgia's back in the news, I see. Here's something I got in my inbox from Tom Woods today:
<quote>
Remember when Georgia opened "too early," according to Doomers?
The Atlantic called it Georgia's "experiment in human sacrifice."
The hysteria was unbelievable.
So how did that turn out?
COVID deaths in Georgia the week before the April 27 reopening: 235
COVID deaths in Georgia the week of May 27, one month after the April 27 reopening (therefore more than allowing for the lag between infection and death): 213
COVID deaths in Georgia over the past seven days: 139 (despite a spike in "cases" that began three weeks ago)
Someone who belongs to the Tom Woods Show Elite just broke down what's happening in Georgia right now even further:
Georgia has around 2,900 CV19 deaths to date and sits at 98% of their total deaths avg of 2017-2019 (less than expected deaths).
Corona Deaths/Million
GA: 276
US overall: 409
NY: 1,663
Louisiana: 723
Michigan: 628
45% of GA deaths have been from long-term elder care facilities. 770 of the deaths have been aged 85+. Even the Imperial College model predicted that 50-60% of CV19 deaths would have occurred within 2020 anyway.
For those under 50 (the bowling crowd), there have been 67K cases but only 176 deaths.
Again June 10th is a key date when cases started to skyrocket across 11 states.
GA since June 10th (7 day avg)
Cases up 286%
Tests up 65%
Deaths DOWN 58%
Be aware that many states are sifting through death certificates and logging deaths from April/May. This has caused a few spikes over the past week and GA may do the same at some point.
Anything is possible, but we are now well past the historical lag period between rising cases and corresponding deaths.
I don't know why recorded cases started increasing so quickly on the same date across multiple states, but certainly contact tracers are part of the answer. When you hire thousands of people to tag coronavirus cases, you get more coronavirus cases or the jobs disappear.
Contact Tracers in Georgia
May 12- 250 Tracers and 3,800 cases
As of June 19th - 1,300 Tracers and 16,590 cases
There could also be an impact from migrant workers. As of yesterday, there are more cases among "non Georgia residents" than DeKalb and Cobb counties. Very few hospitalizations/deaths from this group.
Hospital capacity has risen but still very well within normal levels. More than 20% capacity available statewide for general and ICU beds.
About 10% of beds in the state are occupied by a lab confirmed positive patient but this DOES NOT mean the patient is experiencing CV19 symptoms. FL and AZ and indicated that between 33-50% of positive patients are in the hospital for unrelated reasons."