sdr
2006-11-14 17:11:22 UTC
What Ought to Happen/What IS Going To Happen In Iran.
Deterrence is one thing, retaliation is something else
entirely: Israel has the ability to retaliate after an
Iranian attack, but it does not have the ability to
deter an Iranian attack--Such an attack by Iran is
inevitable unless Iran is physically incapable of
carrying it out, and the very instant Iran is able to
carry out such an attack it will do so regardless of
any consequences it may suffer because of it.
Because of the malevolent influence of Islam, Iran is
a nation/a people that believes in terrorism (the
Koran specifically demands that Muslims "terrorize"
non-believers), therefore Iran is a nation that has a
genuine faith in terrorism.
The one thing Iranians "may" pay any attention to
is an act itself so filled with sheer terror that it "may"
finally make them pull back from the brink. This
might be accomplished by setting off a high-yield
nuclear device on Iranian territory close enough to
Tehran (after the proper leaf-dropping notice) that
everybody there can see for themselves the actual
consequences TO THEMSELVES of nuclear war, without
necessarily having the usual massive loss of lives
that would accompany the actual thing. (I would be
inclined to favor a high-altitude detonation for the
psychological effects which an EM pulse might have.)
People often get themselves so wrapped up relishing
the hurt they're going to put on their enemies that
they completely fail to give any thought at all to
the hurt their enemies can put on them. And this is
especially the case when people are convinced they
are acting under the instruction and protection of
God: The Iranians are living under a suicidal self-
delusion, and either the world wakes them up from
this delusion, or they will perish (and MUST perish)
... and never know why they had to perish.
This idea had been advocated in WWII, but was
abandoned because it was thought that it would
only reinforce the Japanese belief that the U.S.
would never use nukes on Japanese civilians (and
because the U.S. did not have enough devices ready
to "waste" one on a mere demonstration). But here
it may do the trick. And, in ANY CASE, it is
certainly worthwhile to try to prevent the
unimaginable, massive loss of life (and political
repercussions) that a nuclear exchange in the
Middle East will cause: The alternative makes it
indispensable that we should try every possible
trick in the book before giving up the ghost.
Unfortunately for everyone, this is not what is going
to take place in the Iranian crisis.
Unfortunately, people will always try to buy their way
out of Hell on the cheap first--EVERY TIME. Maybe it's
a glitch in the human thinking process which in our
biological past probably had some survival value (this
inability of ours to acknowledge that we ARE in Hell
and the first thing we need to do is get ourselves out
of here no matter what it may cost). But, whatever the
reason, I am confident the world will deny to itself
that Iran really is going to do what it says it's
going to do (Hitler certainly told the world exactly
what he was going to do, and even today some people
still refuse to believe that he actually went ahead
and did exactly as he said he'd do).
No. What is going to happen is ... a conventional
air-strike on Iran's "nuclear" facilities. Almost a
waste of time, really. After which, Iran will unleash
a ballistic onslaught on Israel, probably using
chemical/biological warfare (and possibly including
one or two "dirty" bombs as well), which will cause
untold butchery of Israelis. Inevitably, Israel must
then really well & truly "nuke" Iran, with the
accompanying massive loss of lives such a retaliation
will occasion... probably the extinction of the once
great Persian people from the book of human history.
This may all come about as the inevitable consequence
of human limitations, but it still grieves me to know
that it doesn't have to be the case... were people to
be able to act intelligently but just only sometimes.
And... when will all this happen? Not long after the
death of Saddam Hussein. (As if it were some great
feat of prophecy to predict this.)
S D Rodrian
http://poems.sdrodrian.com
http://physics.sdrodrian.com
http://music.sdrodrian.com
http://mp3.sdrodrian.com
Deterrence is one thing, retaliation is something else
entirely: Israel has the ability to retaliate after an
Iranian attack, but it does not have the ability to
deter an Iranian attack--Such an attack by Iran is
inevitable unless Iran is physically incapable of
carrying it out, and the very instant Iran is able to
carry out such an attack it will do so regardless of
any consequences it may suffer because of it.
Because of the malevolent influence of Islam, Iran is
a nation/a people that believes in terrorism (the
Koran specifically demands that Muslims "terrorize"
non-believers), therefore Iran is a nation that has a
genuine faith in terrorism.
The one thing Iranians "may" pay any attention to
is an act itself so filled with sheer terror that it "may"
finally make them pull back from the brink. This
might be accomplished by setting off a high-yield
nuclear device on Iranian territory close enough to
Tehran (after the proper leaf-dropping notice) that
everybody there can see for themselves the actual
consequences TO THEMSELVES of nuclear war, without
necessarily having the usual massive loss of lives
that would accompany the actual thing. (I would be
inclined to favor a high-altitude detonation for the
psychological effects which an EM pulse might have.)
People often get themselves so wrapped up relishing
the hurt they're going to put on their enemies that
they completely fail to give any thought at all to
the hurt their enemies can put on them. And this is
especially the case when people are convinced they
are acting under the instruction and protection of
God: The Iranians are living under a suicidal self-
delusion, and either the world wakes them up from
this delusion, or they will perish (and MUST perish)
... and never know why they had to perish.
This idea had been advocated in WWII, but was
abandoned because it was thought that it would
only reinforce the Japanese belief that the U.S.
would never use nukes on Japanese civilians (and
because the U.S. did not have enough devices ready
to "waste" one on a mere demonstration). But here
it may do the trick. And, in ANY CASE, it is
certainly worthwhile to try to prevent the
unimaginable, massive loss of life (and political
repercussions) that a nuclear exchange in the
Middle East will cause: The alternative makes it
indispensable that we should try every possible
trick in the book before giving up the ghost.
Unfortunately for everyone, this is not what is going
to take place in the Iranian crisis.
Unfortunately, people will always try to buy their way
out of Hell on the cheap first--EVERY TIME. Maybe it's
a glitch in the human thinking process which in our
biological past probably had some survival value (this
inability of ours to acknowledge that we ARE in Hell
and the first thing we need to do is get ourselves out
of here no matter what it may cost). But, whatever the
reason, I am confident the world will deny to itself
that Iran really is going to do what it says it's
going to do (Hitler certainly told the world exactly
what he was going to do, and even today some people
still refuse to believe that he actually went ahead
and did exactly as he said he'd do).
No. What is going to happen is ... a conventional
air-strike on Iran's "nuclear" facilities. Almost a
waste of time, really. After which, Iran will unleash
a ballistic onslaught on Israel, probably using
chemical/biological warfare (and possibly including
one or two "dirty" bombs as well), which will cause
untold butchery of Israelis. Inevitably, Israel must
then really well & truly "nuke" Iran, with the
accompanying massive loss of lives such a retaliation
will occasion... probably the extinction of the once
great Persian people from the book of human history.
This may all come about as the inevitable consequence
of human limitations, but it still grieves me to know
that it doesn't have to be the case... were people to
be able to act intelligently but just only sometimes.
And... when will all this happen? Not long after the
death of Saddam Hussein. (As if it were some great
feat of prophecy to predict this.)
S D Rodrian
http://poems.sdrodrian.com
http://physics.sdrodrian.com
http://music.sdrodrian.com
http://mp3.sdrodrian.com