Rob
2017-06-08 00:41:32 UTC
ASBs are being invoked to avoid any debate over the premise of the OP, and get right to the follow on question of what happens if.
ASB mind control brings Japanese leaders around to the view in June 1941 that they should strike at the Soviet Union that year, and not expand any further southward in Indochina or Southeast Asia or eastward into the Pacific.
The ASBs do not compel any other changes except for altering Japanese strategy in this way, and keeping it Japan’s preferred strategy over the year ahead (defeat Soviets first). They also intervene no further and permit no further magic.
The Japanese need to attack the USSR in 1941, but can do so as early or as late as they feel best in 1941, so they can attack in July or August or September or October or November or December, weighing their own ability to prepare and concentrate their own forces versus the Soviets against seasonal weather concerns.
The U.S. will not be imposing oil sanctions or freezing dollar assets on Japan at the same time as OTL in July 1941, because the immediate occasion for that move, the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina, does not happen. Of course, the U.S. could embargo the Japanese in July if the Japanese invade the USSR in July and the US uses that as the occasion for starting the embargo.
Supposing this PoD takes effect, what happens from there?
Poll: If Japanese strike north versus Soviet Union in 1941?
A) 6-12 months after Japanese attack Soviets, they occupy Soviet Far East up to Lake Baikal
B) 6-12 months after attack, Japanese occupy Soviet maritime province and Kamchatka
C) 6-12 months after attack, Japanese occupy northern Sakhalin
D) Japanese forces get repulsed at the border by Sovs, Sovs don’t pursue (to conserve resources)
E) 6-12 months after attack, Soviets repulsed Japanese and occupy Manchuria
F) 6-24 months after attacks, Soviets occupy Korea
G) 6-24 months after attacks, Soviets & Chinese have ousted Japanese from all mainland China
H) Japanese attack weakens Soviet defenses against Barbarossa
I) Japanese attack weakens Soviet winter 41-42 counteroffensive
J) 6-24 months later Soviets are still unable to receive aid via Pacific ports
K) 6-24 months later Soviets *can* import US aid through Pacific ports
L) US embargoes Japan as soon as it attacks USSR
M) US does not embargo Japan even after it attacks USSR
N) Once Japan attacks UK’s ally USSR, UK DoWs Japan & launches air & naval attacks
O) Even after Japan attacks UK’s ally USSR, UK does not DoW or attack Japan, just does embargo
ASB mind control brings Japanese leaders around to the view in June 1941 that they should strike at the Soviet Union that year, and not expand any further southward in Indochina or Southeast Asia or eastward into the Pacific.
The ASBs do not compel any other changes except for altering Japanese strategy in this way, and keeping it Japan’s preferred strategy over the year ahead (defeat Soviets first). They also intervene no further and permit no further magic.
The Japanese need to attack the USSR in 1941, but can do so as early or as late as they feel best in 1941, so they can attack in July or August or September or October or November or December, weighing their own ability to prepare and concentrate their own forces versus the Soviets against seasonal weather concerns.
The U.S. will not be imposing oil sanctions or freezing dollar assets on Japan at the same time as OTL in July 1941, because the immediate occasion for that move, the Japanese occupation of southern Indochina, does not happen. Of course, the U.S. could embargo the Japanese in July if the Japanese invade the USSR in July and the US uses that as the occasion for starting the embargo.
Supposing this PoD takes effect, what happens from there?
Poll: If Japanese strike north versus Soviet Union in 1941?
A) 6-12 months after Japanese attack Soviets, they occupy Soviet Far East up to Lake Baikal
B) 6-12 months after attack, Japanese occupy Soviet maritime province and Kamchatka
C) 6-12 months after attack, Japanese occupy northern Sakhalin
D) Japanese forces get repulsed at the border by Sovs, Sovs don’t pursue (to conserve resources)
E) 6-12 months after attack, Soviets repulsed Japanese and occupy Manchuria
F) 6-24 months after attacks, Soviets occupy Korea
G) 6-24 months after attacks, Soviets & Chinese have ousted Japanese from all mainland China
H) Japanese attack weakens Soviet defenses against Barbarossa
I) Japanese attack weakens Soviet winter 41-42 counteroffensive
J) 6-24 months later Soviets are still unable to receive aid via Pacific ports
K) 6-24 months later Soviets *can* import US aid through Pacific ports
L) US embargoes Japan as soon as it attacks USSR
M) US does not embargo Japan even after it attacks USSR
N) Once Japan attacks UK’s ally USSR, UK DoWs Japan & launches air & naval attacks
O) Even after Japan attacks UK’s ally USSR, UK does not DoW or attack Japan, just does embargo