.
Post by nightjarMy guess is we'll end up with yet another hung parliament,
In practice, no different from the current one.
The election predictors suggest that the Conservatives could get a small
majority.
Its too far out for the predictors to be useful.
Post by nightjarThey are quite a bit further ahead of Labour than at the start of the last
election.
Yep, Labour is really on the nose with the
the voters and its hard to see that anything
Corbyn can do bribing wise will change that
now given that he has tried the bribes already
and has got that result from doing that.
Ranting about corrupt govt wont convince many imo.
< However, the last week has seen a
Post by nightjarsmall increase in support for TBP
Hardly surprising given how irrelevant they were previously,
Post by nightjarand they could be crucial in losing the Conservatives some marginals.
I doubt it given how on the nose Labour is with the voters.
That might be a problem with marginal seats with
some chance of a LD candidate getting up but imo
there arent enough of those to matter much.
Sure, a few rabid remainers like you might well
vote for the LD now that they are the only real
black and white opponent of leaving apart from
the SNP which is only standing in scotland seats.
Post by nightjarVotes for Farage will simply cloud the issue as he's very unlikely to win
any seats at all. And certainly nowhere near a majority.
Thurrock is considered the most possible TBP win.
But still hopeless now that Boris has ended up with
a brexit deal that is acceptable to all but the most
rabid like the DUPs. The FPP system means that TBP
hasn’t got a hope in hell of even getting Farage a set
given that the couldn’t even manage that previously.
Post by nightjarUKIP were only about 1,000 votes short of taking it last election.
Where do you get that from ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
But now that Boris's deal is acceptable to
most, there is no way that seat will do better
for TBP than it did for UKIP. Its not as if there
has been any useful change for them in
demographics in such a short time.
What change there has been is worse for TBP,
particularly the cave in on the backstop by Barnier.
I cant see that Farage's claim that Boris's deal isnt
a real brexit will convince many that constituency.
Post by nightjarI'd like to see Farage win a seat, though. The clash between his enormous
ego and that of Boris should be fun.
He can't be both an MP and an MEP.
He cant be an MEP with the UK out of the EU.