Just *accidents* or...?

[rockhound]

Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

EventDate Location Make / Model
EventSeverity
1/3/2008 Oklahoma City, OK Pilatus PC-12/45
Fatal(1)
12/30/2007 Cherokee, AL Bell 206L-3
Fatal(3)
12/29/2007 Venice, LA Bell 206L1
Fatal(1)
12/29/2007 Crowley, TX Althouse RAF 2000 GTX
Fatal(2)
12/27/2007 Traverse City, MI Cessna 310R
Fatal(1)
12/23/2007 Boquete, Panama Cessna 172
Fatal(3)
12/20/2007 Warren, WI Piper PA-32R-300
Fatal(1)
12/20/2007 Springfield, IL Beech V35B
Fatal(3)
12/17/2007 Chevroux, France Reims F172 M
Fatal(1)
12/15/2007 Las Cruces, NM Garniss STOL 701
Fatal(1)
12/12/2007 Statesville, NC Wootton, John Aero Canard
Fatal(1)
12/11/2007 Minersville, UT Beech A36TC
Fatal(3)
12/10/2007 Salmon, ID Beech 200
Fatal(2)
12/9/2007 Kyiv, Ukraine Beech C90B
Fatal(5)
12/9/2007 Warrenton, VA Beech H35
Fatal(1)
12/8/2007 Bloomfield, KY Cessna T210N
Fatal(2)
12/8/2007 Parkland, FL Piper PA-30
Fatal(2)
12/8/2007 Parkland, FL Cessna 152
Fatal(2)
12/7/2007 Woodland, AL Cessna R182
Fatal(2)
12/6/2007 Arteaga, Mexico Cessna 210
Fatal(1)
12/6/2007 Orting, WA Piper PA-28-236
Fatal(1)
12/5/2007 Columbus, OH Cessna 208
Fatal(2)
12/5/2007 Augusta, GA Piper PA-28R-200
Fatal(1)
12/4/2007 New Castle, DE Beech 60
Fatal(1)
12/3/2007 Whittier, AK Eurocopter Deutschland BK117C1
Fatal(4)
11/30/2007 Isparta, Turkey McDonnell Douglas MD-83
Fatal(57)
11/29/2007 Benton, IL SWEARINGEN T R/MASTERS W Rand KR 2
Fatal(1)
11/28/2007 Fort Myers, FL Mooney M20J
Fatal(1)
11/28/2007 Marlow, OK Cessna 172N
Fatal(2)
11/28/2007 Jagel, Germany Cirrus Design Corp. SR-20
Fatal(1)
11/28/2007 Farmerville, LA Cessna 182Q
Fatal(1)
11/27/2007 Apple River, IL Herink Challenger II
Fatal(1)
11/27/2007 Tulsa, OK Cessna T210M
Fatal(2)
11/26/2007 Owensboro, KY Cessna 310R
Fatal(1)
11/25/2007 Faribault, MN Cirrus Design Corp. SR22
Fatal(4)
11/23/2007 Mesquite, TX Cessna A150K
Fatal(2)
11/22/2007 Auburn, CA Cessna 177
Fatal(2)
11/21/2007 New Windsor, NY Cirrus Design Corp. SR-20
Fatal(1)
11/20/2007 Maine,, NY Mooney M20K
Fatal(1)
11/16/2007 Hampton, IA Padelt PG37-1
Fatal(2)
11/15/2007 Ranger, TX Piper PA-28R-200
Fatal(3)
11/9/2007 McFarland, CA Piper PA-60-602P
Fatal(3)
11/9/2007 Morristown, TN Bell 407
Fatal(1)
11/8/2007 Baker City, OR Hughes 269C
Fatal(1)
11/8/2007 Las Vegas, NV Cessna T182T
Fatal(2)
11/7/2007 Merrenberg, France Piper PA-32R
Fatal(1)
11/6/2007 Garberville, CA Cessna 340
Fatal(3)
11/6/2007 Chino, CA Beech A100
Fatal(2)
11/5/2007 Jamestown, TN Robinson R44
Fatal(3)
11/4/2007 Farmington, DE Blondin 601HDS
Fatal(2)
11/4/2007 Sao Paulo, Brazil Learjet 35A
Fatal(8)
11/3/2007 Gladwin, MI Cessna 172I
Fatal(1)
11/2/2007 Reno, NV Kelly F1D
Fatal(1)
11/2/2007 Greenville, PA Vans Aircraft RV-10
Fatal(1)
11/1/2007 San Paulo, Brazil Robinson R-44
Fatal(3)
11/1/2007 Panama City, FL Mooney M20K
Fatal(1)
11/1/2007 La Belle, MO WRB Associates, LLC. Zodiac 601XL
Fatal(1)
10/28/2007 Bermuda Dunes, CA Cessna 172S
Fatal(1)
10/28/2007 Sequim, WA Grumman American AA-5A
Fatal(1)
10/28/2007 Palencia, Spain Vans Aircraft RV4
Fatal(2)
10/27/2007 Boynton Beach, FL Piper PA-28-181
Fatal(2)
10/26/2007 Salida, CO Schempp-Hirth Ventus B/16.6
Fatal(1)
10/26/2007 Cedar City, UT Piper PA-28R-200
Fatal(2)
10/25/2007 Tracy, CA North Wing M-Pulse 19
Fatal(1)
10/23/2007 Browerville, MN Piper PA-44-180
Fatal(2)
10/17/2007 Neuchatel, Switzerland North American T-6G
Fatal(2)
10/17/2007 Glenpool, OK Beech A36
Fatal(5)
10/14/2007 Wiley Ford, WV Aero Commander 560-F
Fatal(4)
10/8/2007 Albuquerque, NM Aerostar S-66A
Fatal(1)
10/7/2007 Castroville, TX Cessna 150L
Fatal(2)
10/7/2007 Ekalaka, MT Cessna 310N
Fatal(2)
10/7/2007 St.Croix, VI Beech D55
Fatal(1)
10/7/2007 Santo Domingo, Venezuela Gulfstream Aerospace GIIB
Fatal(2)
10/7/2007 Naches, WA Cessna 208B
Fatal(10)
10/6/2007 Blacksburg, VA Pelt Mad Max II Special
Fatal(1)
10/6/2007 Toughkenamon, PA Bellanca 7GCAA
Fatal(1)
10/5/2007 Newton, GA Bellanca 7GCBC
Fatal(1)
10/5/2007 Oak Hills, CA Piper PA-28-140
Fatal(1)
10/4/2007 Pagosa Springs, CO Raytheon Aircraft Company C90A
Fatal(3)
10/3/2007 Walthourville, GA Piper PA-28-181
Fatal(2)
10/3/2007 Chesapeake, VA Lambert Variez
Fatal(1)
10/3/2007 Crowley Ranch, OR Piper PA-18
Fatal(1)
9/30/2007 King Salmon, AK Helio H-295
Fatal(4)
9/26/2007 Entebbe, Uganda Reims Aviation F406
Fatal(2)
9/26/2007 Defiance, OH Piper PA-32R-301T
Fatal(1)
9/24/2007 Moriarty, NM Cessna T210M
Fatal(1)
9/22/2007 Sweetwater, TN Kolb Company MK II
Fatal(1)
9/22/2007 Worthington, KY Grumman AA-5A
Fatal(1)
9/22/2007 Whittier, AK Cessna 180
Fatal(1)
9/21/2007 Clayton, NC North American Navion
Fatal(1)
9/21/2007 New Smyrna Bch, FL Temco GC-1B
Fatal(1)
9/20/2007 McGrath, AK Short Bros. SC-7
Fatal(1)
9/16/2007 Airolo, Switzerland Piper PA-28-181
Fatal(2)
9/16/2007 Phuket, Thailand Boeing MD-82
Fatal(89)
9/15/2007 Erie, CO Evektor-Aerotechnik AS SportStar
Fatal(2)
9/15/2007 Utopia, TX Monocoupe 110SP
Fatal(1)
9/15/2007 Dallas, GA Bellanca 17-30A
Fatal(1)
9/14/2007 Reno, NV Deluca-Owl OR-71
Fatal(1)
9/14/2007 Reno, NV Tuttle Cassutt IIIM
Fatal(1)
9/13/2007 Burlington, WA Beech A-36
Fatal(3)
..........

[Bertie the Bunyip]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

Probably almost all of them.

Either pilot, or maintenance, or ATC or...

It's an entirely human based activity, what else could it be?

Bertie

[Brian]

The Simple answer is, there isn't a simple answer.

True you could look at all of these and come up with a percentage that
were caused primarily by Human error. Even then the number would be
somewhat subjective and for the most part meaningless.

One of my favorite sayings is "Not everything that is measureable is
important, and everything important is not measureable."

The number would be meanless in your case primarily because you cover
such a wide range of aviation activities. You will have quite an
aviation career if you manage to participate in all of the activities
and expose yourself to all of these situations.

In your list, you list a fair number of Racing Aircraft, Helicopters,
Experimental Aircraft, Commercial aircraft, gliders and others. Also
many of these accidents probably occured in poor weather conditions.

This simple answer is you need to look at these accidents where the
pilot was doing something you might be doing and determine what your
risk level is. My take on this that if you fly in good weather
typicaly more that 800 feet above the ground in non acrobatic flight
then the risk is about the same as driving your car. Maybe even less
depending on your attitude and decision making abilities because more
than almost any other activity, flying is mostly as safe as you make
it for yourself. If something happens, most of the time it will be
because of something you did or didn't do. i.e. Pilot error.

Brian CFIIG/ASEL

[Dave S]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me <snip>

In that 3-4 month period, how many fatal automobile accidents do you
suspect have occurred nationwide? How many of THOSE do you suspect was
human error? Not being defensive or coy. Just provoking thought.

I live in Houston, Texas. In our county alone, I am certain our daily
death toll on our roadways exceeds the daily nationwide aviation death
toll on a regular basis (airliners going down with a full load excluded).

[Al G]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

Like driving, I'm sure you can come up with a long list of fatalities,
probably just this weekend. Like driving, some are human error, some are
weather, some are luck, or lack of it. Like driving, your success depends on
your attitude/abilities. How is your driving record?

Al G CFIAMI

[gatt]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

Anybody with enough money and a medical certificate can fly an airplane, at
least as a student. It takes quite a bit more to fly well, especially when
you don't have an instructor watching over you from the right seat.

For the most part--but certainly not the entirety--the folks out here strive
for the latter. Pilots of all experience levels lurk here because as the
old flight training magazine slogan used to say, "Every pilot is a student."

-c

[Jim Stewart]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

I'm a student pilot and I've been training
for a year. Soloed a few months ago.

If you just want to be a private pilot and
minimize your risk, do this...

1. Train well and often.
2. Keep gas in your tanks.
3. Stay out of weather.
4. Don't fly at night.
5. Heed weight/balance and density altitude.
6. Obey the rest of the FAR's

During my dual instruction, I always felt
safer in the plane than driving the freeway
home. Since I soloed, I have managed to
scare myself a couple of times and I'm not
so complacent anymore. Nonetheless, I think
that if you follow the above rules, flying
probably isn't as dangerous as motorcycle or
horseback riding. I know I certainly scared
myself more times per hour on the motorcycle
than in the airplane.

[Dallas]

flying probably isn't as dangerous as motorcycle or
horseback riding.

I had a reputable source tell me that flying is exactly as dangerous as
riding a motorcycle.

In fact, I use that as my favorite analogy when people ask "How dangerous
is it?..."

The similarities don't end there either, if you take your bike and haul ass
on the freeways, weaving in and out of traffic and doing wheelies, you'll
probably end up as one of the statistics.

I've owned a motorcycle since age 13 and haven't broken a bone yet because
I'm careful. I'm pretty much the same way when I fly.

[Jim Stewart]

Post by Dallas

flying probably isn't as dangerous as motorcycle or
horseback riding.

I had a reputable source tell me that flying is exactly as dangerous as
riding a motorcycle.
In fact, I use that as my favorite analogy when people ask "How dangerous
is it?..."
The similarities don't end there either, if you take your bike and haul ass
on the freeways, weaving in and out of traffic and doing wheelies, you'll
probably end up as one of the statistics.
I've owned a motorcycle since age 13 and haven't broken a bone yet because
I'm careful. I'm pretty much the same way when I fly.

True and true for me as well.

Two big differences stand out though. On
a bike, you are very much dependent on the
attention and skill of those around you,
much more so than in an airplane. Good
riders end up being totally paranoid in
traffic.

Secondly, in an airplane you usually have
seconds to minutes of time to fix a problem.
On a bike, it can be all over in an instant.
I like an airplane better in my old age.

[Dave S]

Post by Jim Stewart
Two big differences stand out though. On
a bike, you are very much dependent on the
attention and skill of those around you,
much more so than in an airplane. Good
riders end up being totally paranoid in
traffic.
Secondly, in an airplane you usually have
seconds to minutes of time to fix a problem.
On a bike, it can be all over in an instant.
I like an airplane better in my old age.

The old analogy stands true here..
Pilot (biker) makes a mistake.. pilot (biker) dies.
ATC (cager, trucker) makes a mistake, Pilot (biker) dies

[Roger (K8RI)]

On Thu, 10 Jan 2008 16:29:16 -0600, Dallas

Post by Dallas

flying probably isn't as dangerous as motorcycle or
horseback riding.

I had a reputable source tell me that flying is exactly as dangerous as
riding a motorcycle.
In fact, I use that as my favorite analogy when people ask "How dangerous
is it?..."

It is, but that is as far as the analogy goes.

On the Bike risk = exposure = how much you drive.

In the airplane Risk is inversely proportional to how much you fly.
IOW the more you fly the cheaper your insurance rates while the more
you drive the higher they go.

All other comparisons are apples and oranges.


Roger (K8RI)

Post by Dallas
The similarities don't end there either, if you take your bike and haul ass
on the freeways, weaving in and out of traffic and doing wheelies, you'll
probably end up as one of the statistics.
I've owned a motorcycle since age 13 and haven't broken a bone yet because
I'm careful. I'm pretty much the same way when I fly.

[rockhound]

Post by Jim Stewart

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

I'm a student pilot and I've been training
for a year. Soloed a few months ago.
If you just want to be a private pilot and
minimize your risk, do this...
1. Train well and often.
2. Keep gas in your tanks.
3. Stay out of weather.
4. Don't fly at night.
5. Heed weight/balance and density altitude.
6. Obey the rest of the FAR's
During my dual instruction, I always felt
safer in the plane than driving the freeway
home. Since I soloed, I have managed to
scare myself a couple of times and I'm not
so complacent anymore. Nonetheless, I think
that if you follow the above rules, flying
probably isn't as dangerous as motorcycle or
horseback riding. I know I certainly scared
myself more times per hour on the motorcycle
than in the airplane.

That sounds like how I hope to be. I think it's a myth that chances are
higher of a being in a car crash, if time/miles were equalized. I guess
my main concern is there's _so much_ diligence involved in not screwing
up, beyond learning to maneuver the craft. I hope I'm not getting into
something beyond my ability to control and enjoy.

Found this per mile and per hour flying vs driving, and it gives cause
for concern at who's flying around in what, and what kind of chances are
being taken here, if a lot of it is _easily_ avoidable pilot/mechanic
neglect, then there's some real yahoos around? Really, how many pilots
don't check their fuel??? Why is it so easy to miss a runway? Why are
there engine failures? If you could land safely anyway like a kite, why
couldn't they? If everyone's been trained, what got missed? My mind
won't grasp that it's all their faults. Evidently problems in
commercial aviation don't come anywhere near these statistics but maybe
that's watered down by passengers/flight, dunno.
============
GA flying covers small training aircraft capable of cruising at 100mph,
and business jets capable of cruising at several hundred miles per hour,
so choosing an average cruise speed is difficult, but for the sake of
argument, we'll choose 150mph. This gives us a comparison of:

* GA: 7.46 fatal accidents and 13.1 fatalities per 100M miles
* driving: 1.32 fatal accidents and 1.47 fatalities per 100M miles

So when compared on a mile to mile basis, flying has 5.6 times as many
fatal accidents, and 8.9 times as many fatalities (these number would be
even worse for flying if we took out motorcyle and pedestrian fatalities).

How about if we compare on an "hour to hour" basis? That requires an
assumption of an average speed for autos. We'll choose 40mph. This leads
to the following numbers:

* GA: 11.2 fatal accidents and 19.7 fatalities per million hours
* driving: .528 fatal accidents and .588 fatalities per million hours

On this basis, flying has 21 times the number of fatal accidents and
33.5 times the number of fatalities per hour of operation.
http://tinyurl.com/2nvvz7
===========

[WingFlaps]

Hi, was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below

Simple answer, the constitutional difference is that they are dead
while all the people here have not yet adopted that state.
Hope this helps,

Cheers

[Hilton]

The Nall Report from AOPA would be a good starting point.

Hilton

[C J Campbell]

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had? Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

We call it risk management. Some aviation operations are inherently
riskier than others. You, as pilot in command, will (or should, anyway)
be taught to choose your own acceptable level of risk.

Flying while intoxicated, tired, or in poor health is obviously riskier
than flying sober, rested, and healthy. Flying after a fight with your
spouse is riskier than flying while emotionally stable. Buzzing your
buddy's house or flying under powerlines is riskier than flying from
point A to point B at 10,000 feet. Taking off into lowering weather at
night in mountainous terrain is riskier than departing the flatlands on
a sunny day.

Basically, the more things that can go wrong, the riskier it is. It is
not usually just one thing that kills someone. It is usually a whole
chain of events -- a broken widget, a sleepy pilot, bad weather, night,
distracted -- and suddenly you have an accident. Was it the widget? The
lack of sleep? The weather? The darkness? The distractions? In reality,
it was all of those working together. A break anywhere in the chain
would have kept the accident from happening.

The thing that is different about flying from driving automobiles --
very few pilots are killed by other drunk pilots crashing into them. In
an automobile, you have no control over what other drivers are like.
You don't have control over other pilots, either, but you have far more
control over the environment in which you fly.

[Kizzy]

Post by C J Campbell

Post by rockhound
Hi, new to your world, just starting training, and was hoping someone
would point out to me if there was any notable constitutional difference
between folks chatting contentedly here, and the folks sampled in the
NTSB macabre below...being cautious by nature I'd appreciate an early
heads up if any can be had?  Percent avoidable human error or _____ ??

We call it risk management. Some aviation operations are inherently
riskier than others. You, as pilot in command, will (or should, anyway)
be taught to choose your own acceptable level of risk.
Flying while intoxicated, tired, or in poor health is obviously riskier
than flying sober, rested, and healthy. Flying after a fight with your
spouse is riskier than flying while emotionally stable. Buzzing your
buddy's house or flying under powerlines is riskier than flying from
point A to point B at 10,000 feet. Taking off into lowering weather at
night in mountainous terrain is riskier than departing the flatlands on
a sunny day.
Basically, the more things that can go wrong, the riskier it is. It is
not usually just one thing that kills someone. It is usually a whole
chain of events -- a broken widget, a sleepy pilot, bad weather, night,
distracted -- and suddenly you have an accident. Was it the widget? The
lack of sleep? The weather? The darkness? The distractions? In reality,
it was all of those working together. A break anywhere in the chain
would have kept the accident from happening.
The thing that is different about flying from driving automobiles --
very few pilots are killed by other drunk pilots crashing into them. In
an automobile, you have no control over what other drivers are like.
You don't have control over other pilots, either, but you have far more
control over the environment in which you fly.
--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor

Death is a natural part of life. A good pilot understands this and
furthermore he understands that situations arise(although) rare in
which he has virtually no choice but to die. A good pilot racks up on
knowledge, experience and more importantly a brave yet careful
attitude towards his craft in order to safely master it. And he also
reads frequently on the NTSB website about what caused the accidents
and ponders on how they could have been avoided. And then he builds up
the necessary skill to deal with whatever may happen. I had rudder a
cord snap on an old Piper Cub it wasnt half as bad as I would have
thought and I lost an engine on downwind a few years later that was
very scary but my instructor was with me. Once we established on final
and we knew we were gonna make the runway he let me put her down.
Although I will have to admit I was scared for a while there.