Discussion:
Must pay now
(too old to reply)
Tim Chow
2020-06-27 17:55:35 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----babbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow
Peter
2020-06-27 18:39:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----babbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62
---
Tim Chow
I'd like to make the 4 point. What do you think?
Paul Epstein
2020-06-27 20:53:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----babbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62
---
Tim Chow
I'd like to make the 4 point. What do you think?
I think it gives too many shots.

Paul
Paul Epstein
2020-06-27 20:51:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Tim Chow
XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----babbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62
I have to pay but no one said how much.
I'll pay with as few shots as possible, thank you.
8/2 8/6 with 63.4% confidence.

Paul
Tim Chow
2020-06-30 00:57:48 UTC
Permalink
XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----babbb--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

Making the 4pt leaves more shots, but it makes X's board almost as strong
as O's. O's hitting rolls (except 55) mostly leave the game about even.
The alternatives 10/8 10/4 or 7/1* 3/1 leave fewer immediate shots, but
leave X with more cleanup issues.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.262
Player: 65.81% (G:15.32% B:0.99%)
Opponent: 34.19% (G:9.01% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.254..+0.270) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/8 10/4 eq:+0.163 (-0.099)
Player: 63.81% (G:11.63% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 36.19% (G:9.64% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.154..+0.172) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/1* 3/1 eq:+0.162 (-0.100)
Player: 63.14% (G:13.57% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 36.86% (G:10.85% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.153..+0.171) -

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a-B-bDCBaB-bB-----cbbb---:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O X |
| O X O X X | | X O X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 10/8 10/4 eq:+0.076
Player: 61.11% (G:9.75% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 38.89% (G:9.87% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.068..+0.084) - [78.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.071 (-0.004)
Player: 60.09% (G:11.96% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 39.91% (G:10.10% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.064..+0.079) - [21.3%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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