Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownPost by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownHe can bloviate, bluff and bluster all he likes - the opposition just
have to keep their nerve and stone wall until 31/10 goes past. Then
they can deliver the coup de grace. The next election will be very messy.
But what makes you think he wouldn't win it?
He might. It is all going to hinge on how effectively The Brexit party
steals votes off the two main parties
It's likely only to steal votes from the Conservatives.
Bullshit. It will also get some from Labour voters now
pissed off that Labour wont do what it promised to
do, do what the referendum votes said they wanted.
All those who have deserted Labour since the last general
election wont all be voting LimpDim or not bothering to
vote. Some will certainly be voting for the brexit party,
particularly those in the non London constituencys.
Post by Norman WellsBut even that depends on where we stand with Brexit at the time of the
election and on the Tories' policy on it if we haven't left by then.
Its unlikely that the Torys will pull the plug on
Boris' policy given the overwhelming support
he got in the PM election in the tory party itself.
Post by Norman WellsThat nice Mr Farage has already proposed an electoral pact with the
Tories, though that has rather perfunctorily been rejected.
Because the Torys realise that he didn’t even manage to
get himself elected and is unlikely to do so in a new general
election given how gung ho Boris is about brexit now.
Post by Norman WellsWhether some sort of compromise is necessary or will be reached remains to
be seen but it will depend on several factors including of course the
polls.
And even more crucially if the EU grants an extension
because if it doesn’t, the entire brexit question is decided
and there wont be any point in having a general election
because all the current parliament would be able to do
is ask the EU to allow the UK to join again, and even the
current parliament wouldn’t actually be that stupid given
that its ended up with a no deal brexit.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin Brownand whether or not enough people who now detest both Corbinista Labour
and Tory Borisism vote tactically for whichever of
Greens/LibDem/SNP/Cymru stand the best chance of winning for Remain
against the favourite in each constituency.
I don't think there's any evidence that people vote tactically in
sufficient numbers to make a difference, especially when they would all
have to vote the same way when there may be three or even four choices on
the menu.
There are only really 3, the brexit party couldn’t even get Farage
elected. So tactical voting would have to be for the LimpDims.
Post by Norman WellsThe only way Remain parties can avoid splitting the Remain vote between
them
There is only one remain party that matters parliament wise.
Post by Norman Wellsis to have an electoral pact of some sort
The don’t need one given that there is only
one remain party with more than just one seat.
Post by Norman Wellsand have only one Remain candidate in any seat they think they might win.
Don’t need that either given how irrelevant
they all are apart from the LimpDims.
Post by Norman WellsLike that's going to happen!
Doesn’t matter if it does or not.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownI doubt if there will be any Tory MPs returned in Scotland this time...
I don't trust Corbyn either. He is a serial rebel, not a leader
And a rabid Trot.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin Brownand hates making decisions hence his uncomfortable sitting on the Brexit
fence yoga position.
That’s more to try to keep as many voting Labour as possible.
That’s why he didn’t let the NEC decide Labour policy on that.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownThere is a very big gap opening up in politics between the two extremes
that the once classical parties of government used to fight over. The
LibDems are occupying the middle ground with a clear no Brexit policy.
Which is of course totally undemocratic,
No it isnt.
Post by Norman Wellsthough that will not matter in the slightest to Remainers. But they do
also have the disadvantage of a shrill and very un-Prime Ministerial
leader.
And no chance of the LimpDims ever being the govt.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownMy money is on an even more hung parliament with no clear majority for
any of the main parties and then a government of national unity.
Mine too.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownThat will have to be led by someone who can command cross party respect.
Doesn’t need to be led by anyone.
Post by Norman WellsThat's a non-starter, though the result may require a coalition of some
colour.
Unlikely unless it’s a very close result again so
that a tiny party like the DUP can do it again.
No evidence that the brexit party will do any
better than UKIP did and so its hard to see
who the coalition partners could be given
that Swinson is so adamant that she wont
be in coalition with anyone. Tho it remains
to be seen if she caves on that when it comes
to the crunch.
And given that Labour is doing so badly in the
polls, its very unlikely that even the SNP will
hold its nose and end up in coalition with
the LimpDims to get Article 50 revoked either.
Post by Norman WellsWe won't know until we have one.
But stupid to be taking the risk of an even
worse parliament than there is now.
Post by Norman WellsAnd then it might result in a convincing win for someone.
There is no chance of that given that the
country is so evenly divided on brexit.
Post by Norman WellsI wouldn't rule it out.
You are irrelevant. What matters is
what Boris and Corbyn feel about that.
Post by Norman WellsPost by Martin BrownWe will have to wait and see how it plays out.
Indeed. We are mere spectators.
Not really, Boris and Corbyn are looking at the polls.
Corse May did too, and got that completely wrong when she did.
No evidence that Boris or Corbyn can do any better at that.