A plea from a commenter (not me)

Post by MM
<quote>
First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every day
Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face it.
Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way.
Forget who wins the next General Election.
That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a frightful
mess of a situation.
Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal.
No deal = instant 3rd country status.
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all
of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the outside,
wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
frictionless trade.
No deal = resentment. And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal
The Irish Border
The Financial Settlement
Citizens' Rights.
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade
deals.
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and within
the EU.
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more
Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals
will be countenanced.
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR. It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now. We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only
then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like
today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some
medicines, for example, the government themselves admit this.
Shortages usually lead to higher prices too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.
Why are they even considering No Deal? At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, and that's that
you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal. But after
a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals, there
are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and
with each and every service (WTO only covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who wins
the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it, and thereafter the
only remaining issues are who gets to try to be in charge of
minimising the mess.
The politicians don't want you to know all this, they skirt around it
instead. Hold them to account - take back your own control.
No deal must be stopped.
Please do what you can.
Talk to your MP - demand no deal be taken off the table, demand a
genuine deal be pursued. Demand that necessary compromises be made.
Tell them how you'll vote differently if this isn't done.
Demonstrate. Call in on radio shows and raise these issues. Raise
these issues online, on social media etc (please feel free to copy and
paste this, no worries!).
Do this for the sake of yourselves and future generations.
Please, please help stop this no deal nuttiness!
Thank you. :)
</quote>
MM

abelard

2019-10-07 10:04:05 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people from
the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that they
can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit as a
political issue, anyway, so don't care.

very well put...

socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

--
www.abelard.org

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-07 10:27:53 UTC

very well put...
socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

Could it be that their previously dormant concern for flexible labour
markets and global supply chains is really a good thing? We're all
capitalists now :-)

Post by abelard
it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

Who's Brian?

abelard

2019-10-07 10:38:39 UTC

very well put...
socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

Could it be that their previously dormant concern for flexible labour
markets and global supply chains is really a good thing? We're all
capitalists now :-)

in most cases it is deep error to attribute volition

Post by abelard
it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

Who's Brian?

he lives inside the heads of brain donors...his job is to tell
them what to 'think' and say

he use to be called 'conscience' when religion was in vogue

then he was renamed by fashion as jimini cricket until socialist
scientism became a world religion

brian is the new name from moscow central after marx and
'uncle jo' were rejected as blasphemous

--
www.abelard.org

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-07 10:44:00 UTC

very well put...
socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

Could it be that their previously dormant concern for flexible labour
markets and global supply chains is really a good thing? We're all
capitalists now :-)

in most cases it is deep error to attribute volition

Post by abelard
it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

Who's Brian?

he lives inside the heads of brain donors...his job is to tell
them what to 'think' and say
he use to be called 'conscience' when religion was in vogue
then he was renamed by fashion as jimini cricket until socialist
scientism became a world religion
brian is the new name from moscow central after marx and
'uncle jo' were rejected as blasphemous

Ah, /that/ Brian.

Keema's Nan

2019-10-07 10:50:59 UTC

very well put...
socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

Could it be that their previously dormant concern for flexible labour
markets and global supply chains is really a good thing? We're all
capitalists now :-)

in most cases it is deep error to attribute volition

Post by abelard
it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

Who's Brian?

he lives inside the heads of brain donors

Brian Brain?

Post by abelard
...his job is to tell
them what to 'think' and say
he use to be called 'conscience' when religion was in vogue
then he was renamed by fashion as jimini cricket

Brian Brain played cricket

For Worcestershire...

Post by abelard
until socialist
scientism became a world religion
brian is the new name from moscow central after marx and
'uncle jo' were rejected as blasphemous

He must have been drawing his pension for years now.

Ophelia

2019-10-07 11:17:58 UTC

very well put...
socialists(marxist materialists) believe everything is about money
the idea of making decisions for themselves never floats across
their pin heads...

Could it be that their previously dormant concern for flexible labour
markets and global supply chains is really a good thing? We're all
capitalists now :-)

Post by abelard
it's marvelous what the cult has done with 'brian washing' to the
point that the beneficiaries heads are now spotless entire

Who's Brian?

===

<g>

Ophelia

2019-10-07 11:16:37 UTC

One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people from
the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that they
can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit as a
political issue, anyway, so don't care.

===

"I'm going to repost it each and every day until a no-deal crash out of the
EU is (hopefully) avoided:"

Ooh ooh I'm scared. How can I stop myself reading them ...

Oh I know, I will use my KF ... <g>

Yellow

2019-10-07 14:55:05 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

Incubus

2019-10-08 10:26:47 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

Another interesting aspect is how these supposedly economic dealings are
done by politicians. A room full of business people could sort it out
in an afternoon.
'Hands up all those who want a free trade deal with no strings attached?'
'Excellent, let's bugger off to the pub, then.'
I'm joking, of course, but they are rather making a meal of it.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-08 10:37:41 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

And I suppose that that is because it is a political project. There is
therefore a natural tendency for it to rapidly become incomprehensible
to most people as true motives become hidden. And yet the coverage is
almost entirely dedicated to negative economic forecasts. There are
clearly plenty of people out there for whom money is a secondary issue,
coming behind things they suspect, but couldn't even put a name to.
This lack of trust is a major problem for the age, I think, and it is
only getting worse.

abelard

2019-10-08 11:12:29 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

--
www.abelard.org

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-08 11:16:41 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job. I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

abelard

2019-10-08 12:03:15 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job.

very likely...i shan't cry for them...much

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

the schools(teachers) are trying in their clumsy ways to teach
forms of critical analysis...i expect that will show slow
improvement over decades

part of critical analysis must offset 'charisma'...also sometimes
called the loudest voice(s)

your responses to this post, requested!

--
www.abelard.org

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-08 12:20:12 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job.

very likely...i shan't cry for them...much

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

the schools(teachers) are trying in their clumsy ways to teach
forms of critical analysis...i expect that will show slow
improvement over decades
part of critical analysis must offset 'charisma'...also sometimes
called the loudest voice(s)

It is a failure of our establishment that it continues to create the
conditions in which the loudest voices might flourish. Assuming that it
has not been done deliberately. The English revolution has passed
mostly peacefully - some might wish to provoke deeper unrest.

Post by abelard
your responses to this post, requested!

Nothing else to add, really :-)

abelard

2019-10-08 12:45:42 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job.

very likely...i shan't cry for them...much

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

the schools(teachers) are trying in their clumsy ways to teach
forms of critical analysis...i expect that will show slow
improvement over decades
part of critical analysis must offset 'charisma'...also sometimes
called the loudest voice(s)

It is a failure of our establishment that it continues to create the
conditions in which the loudest voices might flourish.

why blame it on a group(the establishment)...naturally loud voices
want preference...it's one of the reasons they grow loud voices

just as wannabe victims use other pleas

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
Assuming that it
has not been done deliberately. The English revolution has passed
mostly peacefully - some might wish to provoke deeper unrest.

which revolution? change is ongoing...

if you try to hold it up you get 'revolution' just as the kettle
blows up if you try to stop it expanding

Post by abelard
your responses to this post, requested!

Nothing else to add, really :-)

you do just great!

--
www.abelard.org

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-08 13:30:16 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job.

very likely...i shan't cry for them...much

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

the schools(teachers) are trying in their clumsy ways to teach
forms of critical analysis...i expect that will show slow
improvement over decades
part of critical analysis must offset 'charisma'...also sometimes
called the loudest voice(s)

It is a failure of our establishment that it continues to create the
conditions in which the loudest voices might flourish.

why blame it on a group(the establishment)...naturally loud voices
want preference...it's one of the reasons they grow loud voices

Yes, but normally they don't get so much attention.

Post by abelard
just as wannabe victims use other pleas

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
Assuming that it
has not been done deliberately. The English revolution has passed
mostly peacefully - some might wish to provoke deeper unrest.

which revolution? change is ongoing...

With the odd bump, surely? :-)

Post by abelard
if you try to hold it up you get 'revolution' just as the kettle
blows up if you try to stop it expanding

ISTM that the internet helped relieve some of the pressure. As well as
creating some of it.

Post by abelard
your responses to this post, requested!

Nothing else to add, really :-)

you do just great!

abelard

2019-10-08 13:57:34 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

i believe the alleged growing distrust is primarily due to the
growing awareness generated by free exchange enabled
by the new tech...
i can only see that growing...and no bad thing

For better or worse, the gatekeepers are all out of a job.

very likely...i shan't cry for them...much

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I suppose
we're in the age of Charisma, and that doesn't always end well :-)

the schools(teachers) are trying in their clumsy ways to teach
forms of critical analysis...i expect that will show slow
improvement over decades
part of critical analysis must offset 'charisma'...also sometimes
called the loudest voice(s)

It is a failure of our establishment that it continues to create the
conditions in which the loudest voices might flourish.

why blame it on a group(the establishment)...naturally loud voices
want preference...it's one of the reasons they grow loud voices

Yes, but normally they don't get so much attention.

Post by abelard
just as wannabe victims use other pleas

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
Assuming that it
has not been done deliberately. The English revolution has passed
mostly peacefully - some might wish to provoke deeper unrest.

which revolution? change is ongoing...

With the odd bump, surely? :-)

balancing control with pressure requires enormous ability/judgement

judgement is high value on the market because it is in short supply!

Post by abelard
if you try to hold it up you get 'revolution' just as the kettle
blows up if you try to stop it expanding

ISTM that the internet helped relieve some of the pressure. As well as
creating some of it.

agreed

--
www.abelard.org

tim...

2019-10-08 11:12:46 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

I agree

The pro-forma of Trade agreements must be understood by all parties.

So all of the things which make a trade agreement hard for TMITS to
understand - arguments over percentage of non-local content that's allowed
in a product for it to qualify, measures to counter non-local goods imported
via an FTA with a third county making their way to the EU, etc, etc, etc,
must be solved problems for which standard text is used in a new FTA.

And the thing that really makes a Trade Agreement hard between two random
countries - a mismatch in product standards and current product tariffs and
quotas, doesn't apply here as we already have exactly the same standards and
zero tariffs between the entities.

It ought to be something that we can agree in 12 months and have operation
within 24.

unless that is the other side are deliberately dragging their heals to
punish us. But the have said that they won't do that.

Except that it's obvious that's exactly what they are doing

tim

Pamela

2019-10-08 13:07:38 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure
that they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see
Brexit as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

Another interesting aspect is how these supposedly economic dealings
are done by politicians. A room full of business people could sort it
out in an afternoon.
'Hands up all those who want a free trade deal with no strings attached?'
'Excellent, let's bugger off to the pub, then.'
I'm joking, of course, but they are rather making a meal of it.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

I agree
The pro-forma of Trade agreements must be understood by all parties.
So all of the things which make a trade agreement hard for TMITS to
understand - arguments over percentage of non-local content that's
allowed in a product for it to qualify, measures to counter non-local
goods imported via an FTA with a third county making their way to the
EU, etc, etc, etc, must be solved problems for which standard text is
used in a new FTA.
And the thing that really makes a Trade Agreement hard between two
random countries - a mismatch in product standards and current product
tariffs and quotas, doesn't apply here as we already have exactly the
same standards and zero tariffs between the entities.
It ought to be something that we can agree in 12 months and have
operation within 24.
unless that is the other side are deliberately dragging their heals to
punish us. But the have said that they won't do that.
Except that it's obvious that's exactly what they are doing
tim

For those who want a Canada style agreement it may take a few years more
-- assuming everything goes smoothly.

Those British companies which rely on exports or importsd may just have to
hold their breath. Some will have cash flow problems serious enough to
put them out of business resulting in lost profits and lost jobs.

Luckily we have a big trading partner across the Atlantic willing to help
us out if we are willing to make concessions to their standards and
practises. Some of our industries will have to put up with the odd trade
war so beloved by the Americans.

All seems simple enough. Like falling off a log, in more ways than one.

tim...

2019-10-09 08:44:34 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure
that they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see
Brexit as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

Another interesting aspect is how these supposedly economic dealings
are done by politicians. A room full of business people could sort it
out in an afternoon.
'Hands up all those who want a free trade deal with no strings attached?'
'Excellent, let's bugger off to the pub, then.'
I'm joking, of course, but they are rather making a meal of it.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

I agree
The pro-forma of Trade agreements must be understood by all parties.
So all of the things which make a trade agreement hard for TMITS to
understand - arguments over percentage of non-local content that's
allowed in a product for it to qualify, measures to counter non-local
goods imported via an FTA with a third county making their way to the
EU, etc, etc, etc, must be solved problems for which standard text is
used in a new FTA.
And the thing that really makes a Trade Agreement hard between two
random countries - a mismatch in product standards and current product
tariffs and quotas, doesn't apply here as we already have exactly the
same standards and zero tariffs between the entities.
It ought to be something that we can agree in 12 months and have
operation within 24.
unless that is the other side are deliberately dragging their heals to
punish us. But the have said that they won't do that.
Except that it's obvious that's exactly what they are doing
tim

For those who want a Canada style agreement it may take a few years more

It may, but if really ought not to

there is nothing to discuss

All of the Terms about percentage of home produced components are available
pro-forma from other trade deal

there won't be any of the argy-bargy about, "if you won't let us export
tariff free purple elephants then we won't let you export tariff free pink
kangaroos", because currently everything is exported tariff free and
everyone wants that to continue.

and the won't be any deadlock over "we can't let you export your red
giraffes because they aren't produced using the same method as ours, because
we already have the same production standards as they do

Post by Pamela
-- assuming everything goes smoothly.

Which it will only not do if they deliberately draw it out to "punish us"

And my money's on then doing that

but from a Trade pov there really is no need

tim

Pamela

2019-10-09 10:14:03 UTC

...SNIP...
For those who want a Canada style agreement it may take a few years more

It may, but if really ought not to
there is nothing to discuss
All of the Terms about percentage of home produced components are
available pro-forma from other trade deal
there won't be any of the argy-bargy about, "if you won't let us export
tariff free purple elephants then we won't let you export tariff free
pink kangaroos", because currently everything is exported tariff free
and everyone wants that to continue.
and the won't be any deadlock over "we can't let you export your red
giraffes because they aren't produced using the same method as ours,
because we already have the same production standards as they do

-- assuming everything goes smoothly.

Which it will only not do if they deliberately draw it out to "punish us"

I'm not sure I understand that "only". Can it be placed elsewhere in the
sentence (serious question)?

Post by tim...
And my money's on then doing that
but from a Trade pov there really is no need

abelard

2019-10-09 13:42:52 UTC

Post by Pamela
Luckily we have a big trading partner across the Atlantic willing to help
us out if we are willing to make concessions to their standards and
practises. Some of our industries will have to put up with the odd trade
war so beloved by the Americans.

the eussr is in an inherent permanent 'trade war'

it is blocking competitive imports by tariffs in order to protect its
own failing and suboptimal companies

--
www.abelard.org

Incubus

2019-10-09 13:55:52 UTC

the eussr is in an inherent permanent 'trade war'
it is blocking competitive imports by tariffs in order to protect its
own failing and suboptimal companies

Few people understand this. Further, as a trading bloc, it tends to focus on
trade between member nations while mandating a single currency. I could
explain the inherent problem with this but most Remainers will simply ignore it
and anyone else probably doesn't require any explanation.

abelard

2019-10-11 08:54:25 UTC

On Wed, 9 Oct 2019 13:55:52 -0000 (UTC), Incubus

the eussr is in an inherent permanent 'trade war'
it is blocking competitive imports by tariffs in order to protect its
own failing and suboptimal companies

pammy has got religion' in 'her' present state i see little chance
of 'her' understanding even basics of 'economics' or 'politics'

--
www.abelard.org

Pamela

2019-10-08 12:58:15 UTC

Yep, you are dead right here on both counts.

I think the complexity is being overstated for political gain.

Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

The Todal

2019-10-08 09:56:14 UTC

Brexit is an issue that transcends normal politics. We're in a totally
different zone now. Plenty of "people from the left" want us to leave
the EU.

Currently, Boris Johnson is desperately trying to blackmail the EU into
compromising over his sloppily drafted proposals. They won't, of course,
but he claims that they, the EU, are being stupid and stubborn and that
his proposals will be withdrawn forever if they are not accepted, and
that he will withdraw co-operation on security matters. All this is
obviously to impress the British public, since it certainly won't
impress the EU negotiators. There are also frantic efforts to bribe
Hungary and other states into vetoing an extension.

It's obviously a policy guided by Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin of
British politics.

So there won't be a deal. Boris's prediction of a one in a million
chance of a no deal ought now to be revised into a one in ten million
chance of a deal. That's what happens when you elect a comedian to the
highest office of state. He makes stuff up.

And undoubtedly most people will justifiably blame Parliament for the
delay in getting us out of the EU. It's surely true that if Theresa
May's deal had been passed by the Commons we'd be out by now, with a
fairly smooth transition. That backstop is a sensible thing to have.
Boris, Jacob and the rest of the ERG gang should be bent over and the
backstop should be forcibly inserted if that's the only way to make it
stick.

The belief that if we get out of the EU without a deal we can move on
and put all this behind us, is of course very naive and misguided. Nigel
Farage is absolutely right in this respect. We'd immediately have to
start urgent negotiations on a deal, or on a series of deals. It's just
that these negotiations will probably take place out of the public
limelight and the public will be able to forget about Brexit for a
while, except on those occasions when the public is inconvenienced by
the lack of a deal.

Norman Wells

2019-10-08 10:19:51 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Hardly blackmail, just negotiation.

They won't, of course,
but he claims that they, the EU, are being stupid and stubborn and that
his proposals will be withdrawn forever if they are not accepted, and
that he will withdraw co-operation on security matters. All this is
obviously to impress the British public, since it certainly won't
impress the EU negotiators.

If they're not willing to face reality and negotiate, then we leave with
no deal, which is not what they want.

There are also frantic efforts to bribe
Hungary and other states into vetoing an extension.

Are there? Is there any proof of that?

It's obviously a policy guided by Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin of
British politics.

Good to see someone who knows about negotiation and is willing to fight
our corner, isn't it? We've seen precious little of that over the last
three years.

So there won't be a deal. Boris's prediction of a one in a million
chance of a no deal ought now to be revised into a one in ten million
chance of a deal. That's what happens when you elect a comedian to the
highest office of state. He makes stuff up.

It's a optimistic figure of speech, not a mathematically derived
calculation.

And undoubtedly most people will justifiably blame Parliament for the
delay in getting us out of the EU. It's surely true that if Theresa
May's deal had been passed by the Commons we'd be out by now, with a
fairly smooth transition. That backstop is a sensible thing to have.
Boris, Jacob and the rest of the ERG gang should be bent over and the
backstop should be forcibly inserted if that's the only way to make it
stick.

Strange you should care so little about our sovereignty.

The belief that if we get out of the EU without a deal we can move on
and put all this behind us, is of course very naive and misguided. Nigel
Farage is absolutely right in this respect. We'd immediately have to
start urgent negotiations on a deal, or on a series of deals. It's just
that these negotiations will probably take place out of the public
limelight and the public will be able to forget about Brexit for a
while, except on those occasions when the public is inconvenienced by
the lack of a deal.

Well, the public will be relieved at that. Leaving without a deal is
not the end but the beginning; everyone appreciates that. But it does
get us out of EU-imposed artificial timetables, and gets us off the back
foot. We will, for example, be able to discuss trade independently of
such issues as the Irish border and the divorce bill, which will of
course have to be decided too, but separately.

Both sides want a trade deal. Leaving with no deal will actually
increase the urgency of reaching one for both sides.

2019-10-08 11:55:21 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Hardly blackmail, just negotiation.

If they're not willing to face reality and negotiate, then we leave with
no deal, which is not what they want.

They can't not want it very badly since there are only days left till
the end of the month and Merkel told Boris in the last few hours that
his proposals were unlikely to be accepted.

At this point, why don't you roll out the tired Brexiter argument that
German car makers will soon be clamouring for a deal? May work this
time...

There are also frantic efforts to bribe
Hungary and other states into vetoing an extension.

Are there? Is there any proof of that?

Downing Street denials. Pretty convincing confirmation, thus.

It's obviously a policy guided by Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin of
British politics.

Good to see someone who knows about negotiation and is willing to fight
our corner, isn't it? We've seen precious little of that over the last
three years.

And is that OUR fault or the EU's fault?

It's a optimistic figure of speech, not a mathematically derived
calculation.

Strange you should care so little about our sovereignty.

We share a tiny little bit of it for the greater benefit to all 28 EU
nations. It's called synergy. Look it up.

How long do you anticipate such decisions will take?

Post by Norman Wells
Both sides want a trade deal. Leaving with no deal will actually
increase the urgency of reaching one for both sides.

More so for the UK. Are the Germans panicking about reduced medical
supplies? Are the French worried about lack of fuel? Are the Dutch
concerned about fresh food supplies?

No, no, and no.

The mainland EU is a massive area with thousands of crossing points
and no customs barriers between EU nations. The worst they will have
to endure is a mild blip as opposed to the earthquake that is about to
happen here.

MM

tim...

2019-10-09 08:45:48 UTC

Post by MM

Post by The Todal

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Hardly blackmail, just negotiation.

Post by The Todal
They won't, of course,
but he claims that they, the EU, are being stupid and stubborn and that
his proposals will be withdrawn forever if they are not accepted, and
that he will withdraw co-operation on security matters. All this is
obviously to impress the British public, since it certainly won't
impress the EU negotiators.

If they're not willing to face reality and negotiate, then we leave with
no deal, which is not what they want.

They can't not want it very badly since there are only days left till
the end of the month and Merkel told Boris in the last few hours that
his proposals were unlikely to be accepted.

they are still gambling on being as difficult as possible so that we will
revoke

And parliament remoaners are helping then in that quest

tim

The Todal

2019-10-09 09:00:56 UTC

Post by MM

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Hardly blackmail, just negotiation.

If they're not willing to face reality and negotiate, then we leave with
no deal, which is not what they want.

They can't not want it very badly since there are only days left till
the end of the month and Merkel told Boris in the last few hours that
his proposals were unlikely to be accepted.

they are still gambling on being as difficult as possible so that we
will revoke
And parliament remoaners are helping then in that quest

Like many Leave supporters, you seem convinced that the EU desperately
wants to stop us leaving. Like a dumped girlfriend who stalks you,
convinced that she can change your mind and you will have a happy future
together.

The EU has been trying very hard to co-operate with the UK in ensuring a
Brexit that causes the least harm to EU member states - notably Ireland.
That's their only concern. They don't mind if we fuck off. But we
mustn't damage the EU, or Ireland. Nor must we cherrypick all the
advantages of being in the EU without any of the responsibilities.

I think Boris's advisers are telling him this but either he's a very
slow learner or, more likely, he believes that lying to the British
public will give him more votes and more seats at the next General Election.

2019-10-14 10:50:47 UTC

Post by The Todal

Post by MM

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Hardly blackmail, just negotiation.

If they're not willing to face reality and negotiate, then we leave with
no deal, which is not what they want.

They can't not want it very badly since there are only days left till
the end of the month and Merkel told Boris in the last few hours that
his proposals were unlikely to be accepted.

they are still gambling on being as difficult as possible so that we
will revoke
And parliament remoaners are helping then in that quest

Like many Leave supporters, you seem convinced that the EU desperately
wants to stop us leaving. Like a dumped girlfriend who stalks you,
convinced that she can change your mind and you will have a happy future
together.
The EU has been trying very hard to co-operate with the UK in ensuring a
Brexit that causes the least harm to EU member states - notably Ireland.
That's their only concern. They don't mind if we fuck off. But we
mustn't damage the EU, or Ireland. Nor must we cherrypick all the
advantages of being in the EU without any of the responsibilities.
I think Boris's advisers are telling him this but either he's a very
slow learner or, more likely, he believes that lying to the British
public will give him more votes and more seats at the next General Election.

The question is, when will his lies finally be exposed so that the
British public knows exact;ly what he's about?

MM

Dan S. MacAbre

2019-10-08 10:56:21 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
One interesting aspect of the whole Brexit thing is hearing people
from the left making economic arguments for the EU. I'm not sure that
they can do it convincingly. People from the right seem to see Brexit
as a political issue, anyway, so don't care.

Brexit is an issue that transcends normal politics. We're in a totally
different zone now. Plenty of "people from the left" want us to leave
the EU.

Sure. I live 'oop north', and your average labour voter (who, possibly
mistakenly, believed themself to be a leftie) is wondering what the hell
is going on right now. A surprising number of them even like Boris.
Like Farage, and Trump, throwing shit at him somehow makes him more
popular. Many of them will probably not actually vote Tory (although
they are easily flipped by a little prosperity), but they will certainly
vote Brexit Party.

Currently, Boris Johnson is desperately trying to blackmail the EU into

'Blackmail'? People aren't supposed to use inflammatory hyperbolic
language at this delicate and divisive moment in out history. I sense
from your next few paragraphs that you're not a fan. :-)

compromising over his sloppily drafted proposals. They won't, of course,
but he claims that they, the EU, are being stupid and stubborn and that
his proposals will be withdrawn forever if they are not accepted, and
that he will withdraw co-operation on security matters. All this is
obviously to impress the British public, since it certainly won't
impress the EU negotiators. There are also frantic efforts to bribe
Hungary and other states into vetoing an extension.
It's obviously a policy guided by Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin of
British politics.
So there won't be a deal. Boris's prediction of a one in a million

It's a brave fellow who makes a prediction nowadays; unless it's
intended in a sort of scaramantic sense. :-)

chance of a no deal ought now to be revised into a one in ten million
chance of a deal. That's what happens when you elect a comedian to the
highest office of state. He makes stuff up.
And undoubtedly most people will justifiably blame Parliament for the
delay in getting us out of the EU. It's surely true that if Theresa
May's deal had been passed by the Commons we'd be out by now, with a
fairly smooth transition. That backstop is a sensible thing to have.
Boris, Jacob and the rest of the ERG gang should be bent over and the
backstop should be forcibly inserted if that's the only way to make it
stick.
The belief that if we get out of the EU without a deal we can move on
and put all this behind us, is of course very naive and misguided. Nigel
Farage is absolutely right in this respect. We'd immediately have to
start urgent negotiations on a deal, or on a series of deals. It's just
that these negotiations will probably take place out of the public
limelight and the public will be able to forget about Brexit for a
while, except on those occasions when the public is inconvenienced by
the lack of a deal.

I don't think Brexiters care much about deals. They care about other
things, and believe that everything will 'just work out'. After being
told that their country is a world leader in this that and the other, a
lot of people will be unhappy if 'the establishment' fucks it up for them.

2019-10-08 11:57:30 UTC

Post by Dan S. MacAbre
I don't think Brexiters care much about deals. They care about other
things,......

Chiefly, whether "the coloureds" will be going after the first week of
Total Sovereignty. (Including those born here.)

MM

2019-10-08 11:43:53 UTC

Post by The Todal

Brexit is an issue that transcends normal politics. We're in a totally
different zone now. Plenty of "people from the left" want us to leave
the EU.
Currently, Boris Johnson is desperately trying to blackmail the EU into
compromising over his sloppily drafted proposals. They won't, of course,
but he claims that they, the EU, are being stupid and stubborn and that
his proposals will be withdrawn forever if they are not accepted, and
that he will withdraw co-operation on security matters. All this is
obviously to impress the British public, since it certainly won't
impress the EU negotiators. There are also frantic efforts to bribe
Hungary and other states into vetoing an extension.
It's obviously a policy guided by Dominic Cummings, the Rasputin of
British politics.
So there won't be a deal. Boris's prediction of a one in a million
chance of a no deal ought now to be revised into a one in ten million
chance of a deal. That's what happens when you elect a comedian to the
highest office of state. He makes stuff up.
And undoubtedly most people will justifiably blame Parliament for the
delay in getting us out of the EU. It's surely true that if Theresa
May's deal had been passed by the Commons we'd be out by now, with a
fairly smooth transition. That backstop is a sensible thing to have.
Boris, Jacob and the rest of the ERG gang should be bent over and the
backstop should be forcibly inserted if that's the only way to make it
stick.
The belief that if we get out of the EU without a deal we can move on
and put all this behind us, is of course very naive and misguided. Nigel
Farage is absolutely right in this respect. We'd immediately have to
start urgent negotiations on a deal, or on a series of deals. It's just
that these negotiations will probably take place out of the public
limelight and the public will be able to forget about Brexit for a
while, except on those occasions when the public is inconvenienced by
the lack of a deal.

Do I understand correctly that once we're out, Article 50 ceases to
have any significance?

MM

Pamela

2019-10-07 11:30:01 UTC

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

By the way I can't find this in Google. What's the source?

Keema's Nan

2019-10-07 11:39:33 UTC

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade deals; and
so that is what they will do.

Post by Pamela
By the way I can't find this in Google. What's the source?

abelard

2019-10-07 11:53:22 UTC

On Mon, 07 Oct 2019 12:39:33 +0100, Keema's Nan

Post by Pamela
Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade deals; and
so that is what they will do.

Post by Pamela
By the way I can't find this in Google. What's the source?

you really are not taking the remoaners seriously enough

how can they buck democracy if you won't take them seriously?

you're getting as evil as that johnson fellow...

--
www.abelard.org

Keema's Nan

2019-10-07 11:58:00 UTC

Post by abelard
On Mon, 07 Oct 2019 12:39:33 +0100, Keema's Nan

Post by Pamela
Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade deals; and
so that is what they will do.

Post by Pamela
By the way I can't find this in Google. What's the source?

you really are not taking the remoaners seriously enough
how can they buck democracy if you won't take them seriously?
you're getting as evil as that johnson fellow...

Why, thank you - kind sir.

I do my best.

Pamela

2019-10-07 19:32:03 UTC

Post by MM
<quote>
First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every day
Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face it.
Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way.
Forget who wins the next General Election.
That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a frightful
mess of a situation.
Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal.
No deal = instant 3rd country status.
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all
of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the
outside, wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
frictionless trade.
No deal = resentment. And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal
The Irish Border
The Financial Settlement
Citizens' Rights.
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade
deals.
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and
within the EU.
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more
Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals
will be countenanced.
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR. It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now. We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only
then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like
today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some
medicines, for example, the government themselves admit this.
Shortages usually lead to higher prices too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.
Why are they even considering No Deal? At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, and that's that
you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal. But after
a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals, there
are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and
with each and every service (WTO only covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who
wins the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it, and thereafter the
only remaining issues are who gets to try to be in charge of
minimising the mess.
The politicians don't want you to know all this, they skirt around it
instead. Hold them to account - take back your own control.
No deal must be stopped.
Please do what you can.
Talk to your MP - demand no deal be taken off the table, demand a
genuine deal be pursued. Demand that necessary compromises be made.
Tell them how you'll vote differently if this isn't done.
Demonstrate. Call in on radio shows and raise these issues. Raise
these issues online, on social media etc (please feel free to copy
and paste this, no worries!).
Do this for the sake of yourselves and future generations.
Please, please help stop this no deal nuttiness!
Thank you. :)
</quote>
MM

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

I didn't imply that at all. Read it again.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade deals;
and so that is what they will do.

The Bremoaners that allegedly want Brexit done and dusted are going to be
sorely disappointed.

Keema's Nan

2019-10-07 19:47:35 UTC

Post by MM
<quote>
First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every day
Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face it.
Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way.
Forget who wins the next General Election.
That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a frightful
mess of a situation.
Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal.
No deal = instant 3rd country status.
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all
of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the
outside, wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
frictionless trade.
No deal = resentment. And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal
The Irish Border
The Financial Settlement
Citizens' Rights.
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade
deals.
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and
within the EU.
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more
Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals
will be countenanced.
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR. It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now. We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only
then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like
today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some
medicines, for example, the government themselves admit this.
Shortages usually lead to higher prices too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.
Why are they even considering No Deal? At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, and that's that
you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal. But after
a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals, there
are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and
with each and every service (WTO only covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who
wins the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it, and thereafter the
only remaining issues are who gets to try to be in charge of
minimising the mess.
The politicians don't want you to know all this, they skirt around it
instead. Hold them to account - take back your own control.
No deal must be stopped.
Please do what you can.
Talk to your MP - demand no deal be taken off the table, demand a
genuine deal be pursued. Demand that necessary compromises be made.
Tell them how you'll vote differently if this isn't done.
Demonstrate. Call in on radio shows and raise these issues. Raise
these issues online, on social media etc (please feel free to copy
and paste this, no worries!).
Do this for the sake of yourselves and future generations.
Please, please help stop this no deal nuttiness!
Thank you. :)
</quote>
MM

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

I didn't imply that at all. Read it again.

I have; and you did.The idea that there would be nothing but negotiations and
deals for many years if we cancelled Brexit are highly unlikely.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade deals;
and so that is what they will do.

The Bremoaners that allegedly want Brexit done and dusted are going to be
sorely disappointed.

And now the backtracking begins.

Pamela

2019-10-08 11:36:37 UTC

Post by MM
<quote>
First posted on 2.10.19 but I'm going to repost it each and every
Forget revocation of Article 50...not going to happen, let's face
it. Forget a second referendum, too many obstacles in the way.
Forget who wins the next General Election.
That issue decides only which party gets to 'administer' a
frightful mess of a situation.
Please, just for a moment, let's focus on No Deal.
No deal = instant 3rd country status.
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries,
all of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the
outside, wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
frictionless trade.
No deal = resentment. And we will be the ones asking for a trade
deal with the EU as an independent country. First things to be
discussed: The Irish Border
The Financial Settlement
Citizens' Rights.
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise
trade deals.
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and
within the EU.
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of
more Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade
deals will be countenanced.
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR. It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now. We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse,
only then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow
will be like today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be
shortages of some medicines, for example, the government
themselves admit this. Shortages usually lead to higher prices
too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.
Why are they even considering No Deal? At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms, and that's
that you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal.
But after a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even
simple deals, there are so many details to consider in each and
every good listed, and with each and every service (WTO only
covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who
wins the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it, and thereafter
the only remaining issues are who gets to try to be in charge of
minimising the mess.
The politicians don't want you to know all this, they skirt
around it instead. Hold them to account - take back your own
control.
No deal must be stopped.
Please do what you can.
Talk to your MP - demand no deal be taken off the table, demand a
genuine deal be pursued. Demand that necessary compromises be
made. Tell them how you'll vote differently if this isn't done.
Demonstrate. Call in on radio shows and raise these issues. Raise
these issues online, on social media etc (please feel free to
copy and paste this, no worries!).
Do this for the sake of yourselves and future generations.
Please, please help stop this no deal nuttiness!
Thank you. :)
</quote>
MM

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals
for many years.

At least you have now accepted Brexit will happen.

I didn't imply that at all. Read it again.

I have; and you did.The idea that there would be nothing but
negotiations and deals for many years if we cancelled Brexit are highly
unlikely.

Post by Pamela
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

We will be out, and trade negotiators get paid to negotiate trade
deals; and so that is what they will do.

The Bremoaners that allegedly want Brexit done and dusted are going to
be sorely disappointed.

And now the backtracking begins.

Whichever way you slice it, there are going to be some very unhappy
Brexiteers. Too bad.

Norman Wells

2019-10-07 13:35:24 UTC

Those who want Brexit "done" on 31st October are going to be very
disappointed when there will be nothing but negotiations and deals for
many years.
No Deal makes post-Brexit negotiations harder and more protracted.

It may, on the contrary, increase their urgency.

Both sides wnat a deal. Remove the distraction of the Withdrawal
Agreement and we can get on with discussing what matters, ie trade,
rather than have the EU try to dictate a specific and limiting order of
events.

Post by Pamela
By the way I can't find this in Google. What's the source?

When something's unreferenced, it usually means it's from somewhere
totally biassed, written by someone who has no credentials, and
appearing on an obscure platform with no credibility.

Happy to be proved wrong though, as always.

tim...

2019-10-07 13:09:11 UTC

and what does that mean?

Are you suggesting it's a bad thing?

please show your working

Post by MM
No deal = trade deals no longer valid within the EU 27 countries, all
of whom now have a veto on ratification of any treaty.

As they will if we leave with a deal

Post by MM
No deal = UK no longer a member of any EU-negotiated trade deals,
these all need to be renegotiated again.

This is already in hand. About half have already been agreed. More will do
so once they see that we are actually leaving (what's the point of them
spending diplomat's time in negotiating for a deal, that will be torn up if
we stay in)

Post by MM
No deal = We have to enter into treaties/trade deals from the outside,
wanting to get in...reducing our leverage.

No, it increases our leverage because we have the option of walking away, so
the other side can't just give us a bum deal and expect us to just roll over

That most certainly isn't the case with May's deal

Post by MM
No deal = initially trading on WTO terms.
Increased bureaucracy and checks and tariffs = anything but
frictionless trade.

Yes, that's understood by those advocating it

Post by MM
No deal = resentment.

and the current deal doesn't?

Post by MM
And we will be the ones asking for a trade deal
with the EU as an independent country.

But they will need a deal too as No Deal harms them.

Post by MM
The Irish Border

Of course

but it will be discussed by parties with equal strength - i.e. either side
can walk away if it isn't resolved

At the moment the EU are saying "this is the arrangement that we want and
you have to accept it, tough titties if you don't like it!".

Post by MM
The Financial Settlement

Who cares. It's trivial in the great scheme of things.

Post by MM
Citizens' Rights.

Good, we want agreement on that at least as much as they do

Post by MM
No Deal = years and years of excruciatingly slow to finalise trade
deals.

Why?

IMHO if we don't get a deal within 2-3 years we will never do so. All the
pain on our side will have been spent and we will have moved on to other
trading relationships.

Post by MM
No Deal = Getting new deals on worse terms than we had with and within
the EU.

Why's that then?

Again show your working

Are you talking about 3rd countries or EU countries

For many countries we will get a better deal than we will from inside the EU
because we are quite happy to let these third countries sell us their
agricultural produce (which in some cases is all that they have to trade
with us) whereas from within, the EU is reluctant to open up agriculture to
free competition and vetoes deals that go too far in that direction.

Post by MM
No deal does not mean that we "Got Brexit Done"

Yes it does.

Post by MM
Getting Brexit Done through no deal is only the beginning.... of more
Brexit (The Irish Border, The Financial Settlement and
Citizens' Rights will need to be negotiated before any trade deals
will be countenanced.

No The Irish border will be resolved of the overall trade deal (as it
should have been in the leaving negotiations)

There will be no "the Irish border has to be settled first" condition. The
EU will no longer have any cards to force that as a policy.

Post by MM
No deal leads to an 8% drop in GDP according to the impartial and
independent OBR.

1) that not a drop of GDP, it's a lower rise than would otherwise occur.

2) It's 8% over many years and predicated upon there being a slower rise in
population than otherwise. Overall PC GDP stays about the same. TMITS will
not notice.

Post by MM
It's hard for us to imagine things being any
different to how they are right now.

Of course things will be different

but there will be good things to go with the bad.

Post by MM
We people are like that. But
things we take for granted can and will change, for the worse, only
then will we be up in arms about it. We imagine tomorrow will be like
today, after a no-deal it won't be - there will be shortages of some
medicines,

will there?

Well we'll just have to wait to find out, won't we.

Post by MM
for example, the government themselves admit this.
Shortages usually lead to higher prices too.
No Deal is the real enemy of the people, in my opinion.

It's the enemy of the elites for sure. Not convinced it's the enemy of the
people

Post by MM
Why are they even considering No Deal?

because the EU haven't offered us an acceptable deal

and we don't want to get tuned over and shafted,.

Post by MM
At the moment we should be
worried and angry that they are even contemplating it.

why?

Post by MM
There's a reason countries don't trade on WTO terms,

but 100s do

Post by MM
and that's that
you normally get much better terms as part of a trade deal.

If this Trade deal is such a great thing then the EU will come running to us
for one, won't they

just like they are running to New Zealand (the 53rd largest country in the
world) for one, when the reality is that we sell bugger all to NZ

Post by MM
But after
a crash out, it will take years to negotiate even simple deals,

why?

Trade deal can, and have been done in 2-3 years

There's no reason to suspect that willing parties can't do that just because
we have "Crashed out"

Post by MM
there
are so many details to consider in each and every good listed, and
with each and every service (WTO only covers goods).
The issues of Article 50 Revocation, a second referendum, and who wins
the next GE are actually pretty irrelevant if No Deal passes.

The latter is very relevant

I wouldn't want Corbyn in charge of negotiating deals with ROW, he will just
give them everything that they want and win us nothing

Post by MM
We would be seriously, seriously hamstrung by it,

disagree

Therefore rest of nonsense irrelevant

tim

abelard

2019-10-07 15:13:48 UTC