Discussion:
ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.
(too old to reply)
Ebenezer T. Squint
2003-08-29 18:51:22 UTC
Permalink
If Pres. Arthur can do an ISOT, I guess the floodgates are open, so...

ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.

POD Dec. 31, 2000:

The ASBs are celebrating another year of meddling with human history,
fascinating timeline experiments, and good clean fun. One of the intoxicated
aliens stumbles into the ISOT control panel and hits a bunch of buttons at
random. "Oops! Wonder what I did?"

David Doyle is bringing in his lobster catch. He shouldn't be working at
midnight on New Year's Eve, but his family needs the money since the cod
fishery collapsed. He sees the lighthouses in St. John's harbour in the
distance through the sleet. Suddenly a wall of light appears between his
boat and the land, like the Aurora Borealis come down to the ocean's
surface. A second later it disappears. Doyle can still see the outline of
the coast, but the lighthouses are gone. As he comes nearer, he sees that
ALL the buildings are gone!

Precisely at midnight, all over Newfoundland, there are power failures as
the lines from the hydroelectric dams on the mainland are cut. Those who
still have power or batteries notice that all radio and television
broadcasts from the outside world have stopped. All telephone lines to the
mainland have gone dead. Everyone on the Internet suddenly has access only
to the handful of local websites and newsgroups.

Panic spreads quickly as the Islanders fear the worst, that the rest of the
world has been obliterated in a thermonuclear exchange. As the hours pass,
the Provincial authorities try to keep order in St. John's and find out what
is happening. A call from the Faculty of Science at Memorial University
informs the shocked Premier and his cabinet that the date is Jan. 1, 1000AD!

Incoming ships and planes fail to appear, and ougoing ones (those that don't
run out of fuel) return, reporting that there is nowhere to go. Within hours
CBC Newfoundland reports the unbelieveable truth to the public, that the
Island of Newfoundland (minus Labrador) has gone back 1000 years in time!

As the pointless debate begins on how it happened, more immediate problems
are becoming apparent. The Island's economy begins to collapse immediately,
since all imports and exports have ceased. The Newfoundland government
assumes control of the military and all other Federal institutions, and
declares that Canadian currency is still legal tender, although the
government that printed it no longer exists. Distraught foreigners marooned
on Newfoundland are granted citizenship and given such assistance as they
require. Gradually, as order is restored, the Island economy makes the
painful shift toward self-sufficiency. As the weeks and months pass, horses
are bred to tow the vehicles that run out of fuel, and motor boats are
refitted with sail. Much of the power grid is restored as new generators are
turned on and fuel reserves are requisitioned for them, power rationing is
announced, and plans are made for new small dams and windmills.

How does the Island deal with the loss of trade from the rest of the world?
Thanks to geographical records, everyone knows where all the resources are,
but is any attempt made to exploit them? Petroleum, coal and gas might be
extracted and refined, but owners of motor vehicles will still face the
long-term problem of no replacement parts. Is there a large-scale return to
steam power? Libraries can be searched for the technical plans to build any
industry or service the Island might require, but which ones will be
considered a priority? Which ones (eg. medicines, electrical equipment,
small engines) are within feasibility for the approximately half-million
population?

How does Newfoundland popular culture deal with its sudden and complete
isolation? How does it help Newfoundlanders adjust to their new situation?
Is there an overwhelming sense of nostalgia for the world left behind?

In 2000AD, Newfoundland is a minor province of an average country, but in
1000AD it might as well be Atlantis. Does the Newfoundland government
declare a policy of non-interference with the outside world? How many
curious Newfoundlanders ignore this declaration and go off looking for
adventure out of a desire to remake the world in their image (or sheer
boredom?)

Will some adventurous-feeling Newfoundlanders decide to sail to the American
mainland and try to set up their own empires? How many of these have any
success, and how many are treated to a Ponce de Leon impersonation? Of the
successful ones, what happens when their empires collapse from imported
diseases?

What does Leif Ericsson tell the other Icelanders when he returns from this
"Vinland?" Do other Newfies save him the trip? Does anyone decide to cross
the Atlantic with firearms and try to put an end to the Viking raids?

Does the Newfoundland Catholic Church recognize Pope Sylvester II as its
nominal head? Do irresponsible Protestants decide to try and inspire an
early Reformation?

If the Government of Newfoundland does decide to meddle with the outside
world, or at least try to undo the damage done by these adventurers, does it
attempt to establish contact with the monarchies of Western Europe? Do the
Kings welcome the opportunity to advance their technology hundreds of years
ahead of their rivals? Or does Europe conclude that Satan himself has
established an island realm across the sea, burn the ambassadors at the
stake and refuse all further contact?

Finally, what does Canada 2000AD do with a Newfoundland that has suddenly
been repopulated with a few thousand Beothuks?
President Chester A. Arthur
2003-08-29 19:58:27 UTC
Permalink
Subject: ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.
Date: 8/29/2003 2:51 PM Eastern Daylight Time
If Pres. Arthur can do an ISOT, I guess the floodgates are open, so...
Norman Spinrad was not endorsing Mein Kampf. Alice Randall was not endorsing
Gone with the Wind.

I know I'm not in the caliber of those writers, but I had hoped the intent
behind what I'd written was a little more obvious than that.

Oh well, I've learned my lesson. Magic magic magic! And let's spit in history's
eye and call it on-topic.
Coyu
2003-08-29 20:38:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
If Pres. Arthur can do an ISOT, I guess the floodgates are open, so...
Norman Spinrad was not endorsing Mein Kampf. Alice Randall was not endorsing
Gone with the Wind.
I know I'm not in the caliber of those writers, but I had hoped the intent
behind what I'd written was a little more obvious than that.
You're much better than Spinny, Chet. Haven't read Ms. Randall.

But this subgenre is like a fsckin' Ebola zombie. Because of reader
expectations, many people are willing to accept nearly any amount of
implausible power fantasy as long as it has ISOT cumshots on a
regular schedule. It doesn't _matter_ whether the fantasy is moral
or immoral. Just as long as you have the cumshot.

(I was going to use a Pavlov's bell metaphor, but I don't think it's
the *salivary* gland in play here.)

I respect your artistic intention to take down ISOT till the rubble
bounces. But you don't want to be Samson in the temple.

Possibilities:

USA 2002 ISOT 1942, the We Now Know version. But this would be
needlessly cruel to Dave Knudson, and would probably cause screaming
conniption fits among the wingnut-slash-fanboy contingent on shwi.

Hmmm. Feature, not bug? No no no.

Endless variations of the "nothing happens" ISOT. A vacant lot, 20
years back. A cubic mile of Antarctic ice. Post ten for every one
ISOT some goober makes. (Not you, my dear Mr. Squint.) Make them as
undramatic as possible.

The problem is, _any_ drama involving an ISOT situation is suitable
for the ISOT Wank. A sordid little frisson of intertemporal ooooh.
What, doesn't the world have enough lingerie catalogs?

Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives. (Personal violence to Steverino in the past, no matter how
comical the situation you come up with, is unacceptable.)
Ebenezer T. Squint
2003-08-29 21:04:07 UTC
Permalink
<snip>
Post by Coyu
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
I know I'm not in the caliber of those writers, but I had hoped the intent
behind what I'd written was a little more obvious than that.
I wasn't trying to belittle your ISOT, Mr. President. I'm sure you had the
best intentions.

<snip>
Post by Coyu
Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives.
Seems to be a lot of end-of-the-summer silliness and OT-ness around here,
and I guess I got caught up in the moment. Now that it's out of our systems,
back to serious AH. :)
Charles Talleyrand
2003-08-30 01:00:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives.
There are Magic In History posts here because a useful portion of the people
here like such posts. If someone were to post such an article to
rec.arts.sci-fi.written or rec.arts.sci-fi.science or some such place,
and then to report that the audience there was receptive, then maybe the
Magic In History posts would move there.

The problem is that those places would probably tend to discuss the method
(how ISOT forms, what physics are needed) and not the history. If you
want to actually discuss the histories that might arrive, soc.history.what-if
seem the place. Heck, isn't it even in the charter or FAQ?

It's an experiment one might try. Heck, I'll probably try it when I am next
in the mood to post such things.
Post by Coyu
Just as long as you have the cumshot.
Not really the imagry I'm looking for.

-C.M.Talleyrand
James Nicoll
2003-08-30 13:15:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives.
Wouldn't it be easier to just ignore ISOT threads?
Yes, but not necessarily as much fun.

The traditional way to kill subgenres is to write a parody
so on-spot and scathing that the possibility of writing in the genre
is killed for generations. The canonical example is _Don Quixote_
and it may be the only example. Certainly _Bill the Galactic Hero_
didn't manage to kill off MilSF and neither did _The Iron Dream_.

Actually another method is to have TV and films in the genre.
Because by their nature visual media are stupider [1] than print, certain
simplifying actions will be committed on the works adapted and due to
of the social ecology of films and tv other changes will occur Because.
Since far more people see movies than read, the manner in which genres
are presented in films will become the default expectation for the genre
in question and if (as seems inevitable) the few film watchers who read
decide to dabble in the books, the more they differ from the film
conventions the less pleased the reader will be. Eventually the films
and TV take over that spot in the entertainment ecology and the print
genre withers and dies. See cowboy books.

ObWI: Dino De Laurentis' _Lest Darkness Fall_ [1975], followed by
Irwin Allen's _Time Quake!_ (based on _October the First is Too Late_)
and then followed by Aron Spelling's _Paratime Blue_ (loosely based on
the Piper stories) in which two Paratime cops patrol the timestreams
preventing crimes and chatting up cute blondes.




1: By which I mean less well adapted to communication intellectual ideas,
such as 'this is how combustion works' and better adapted to communicate
simple emotional ideas like 'I am on fire'.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
mike
2003-08-31 00:54:51 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Nicoll
ObWI: Dino De Laurentis' _Lest Darkness Fall_ [1975], followed by
Irwin Allen's _Time Quake!_ (based on _October the First is Too Late_)
And this would be worse than OTLs _Time Tunnel_ in what way?

**
mike
**
Mad Bad Rabbit
2003-08-31 01:15:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Nicoll
ObWI: Dino De Laurentis' _Lest Darkness Fall_ [1975], followed by
Irwin Allen's _Time Quake!_ (based on _October the First is Too Late_)
Will these outdo OTL's "Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure"
(in terms of historical bogosity) ?
Post by James Nicoll
;K
Raymond Speer
2003-08-31 13:41:17 UTC
Permalink
I must part company from people who hold that time travel (either by an
individual or by a group) is a genre that ought to perish. I have no
allergy to time machines of any sort (not even the clunky mechanism of
Mark Twain by which a blow to the head sends Hank Morgan to a different
era).

There are lots of things I disagree with Mr. Sterling on /_1_/, but I
fail to agree with the premise that the initial set-up of _Island in the
Sea of Time_ inevitably leads to right-wing wanks about the exploitation
of power over subhumans. If SM Stirling wrecked his car in the drive
from Omaha to Denver, and then Eric Flint & David Drake wrecked their
pick-up following the same route, would that be reason for Coyu to
advise everybody else to avoid Interstate Eighty? I don't think so. A
better driver could take that same road without mishap.

Frex, Chester Allan Arthur's tale of a 1930 Mississippi transplanted to
1860s is _ISOT_ done right. I encourage President Arthur to continue
that tale for a series of vignettes.

=====ENDNOTE

/_1_/ His acceptance of the myth that a Euro could blow on an Original
American pre-1492 and kill the O.A.; his utter ignorance of democratic
practices that leads to his islanders' mayor becoming a virtual absolute
monarch; his belief in A Right Solution to which alternative plans are
absurd deviations cooked up by Bad Guys; his overestimate of what a
small town from the 20th century could do to shape raw materials into
finished products; his racist assumption that Egyptians and Babylonians
aren't as innovative as their neighbors to the North; and his
fascination with lesbian sex.
a***@yahoo.com
2003-08-31 19:25:07 UTC
Permalink
On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 08:41:17 -0500 (CDT), ***@webtv.net (Raymond
Speer) wrote:

[snip]
/_1_/[snip]
his racist assumption that Egyptians and Babylonians
aren't as innovative as their neighbors to the North;
Hm, I missed that part in his ISOT novels. Every civilization outside
of Nantucket appears to be at roughly the same level of technology at
first. The Babylonian leadership, with some resistance from the
priestly class, appear eager to quickly adopt technology and ideas
from their Nantucket allies. Egypt certainly is unwilling to do
either, but in OTL there are many examples of civilizations that
failed to adapt quickly enough even despite pressures from enemies
(later Ottoman and Ming empires come to mind). What is more
unrealistic is that the Achaeans are so quickly coopted by an
outsider.
and his fascination with lesbian sex.
My dear MTV-deprived Raymond, your mores have fallen behind the times.
He is merely describing what will become a cultural norm.
a***@yahoo.com
2003-09-01 07:00:59 UTC
Permalink
On 31 Aug 2003 19:29:03 GMT, ***@aol.comgentboss (President
Chester A. Arthur) wrote, making an executive decision to keep an
Subject: Re: Killing a subgenre (was ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.)
Date: 8/31/2003 3:25 PM Eastern Daylight Time
and his fascination with lesbian sex.
My dear MTV-deprived Raymond, your mores have fallen behind the times.
He is merely describing what will become a cultural norm.
Naah, too easy.
Excellent decision, Mr. President!
Coyu
2003-08-31 21:51:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Raymond Speer
There are lots of things I disagree with Mr. Sterling on /_1_/, but I
fail to agree with the premise that the initial set-up of _Island in the
Sea of Time_ inevitably leads to right-wing wanks about the exploitation
of power over subhumans. If SM Stirling wrecked his car in the drive
from Omaha to Denver, and then Eric Flint & David Drake wrecked their
pick-up following the same route, would that be reason for Coyu to
advise everybody else to avoid Interstate Eighty? I don't think so. A
better driver could take that same road without mishap.
Well, IMO ISOT is not like I-80. It's more like a twisty mountain road
that locals call the Via Dolorosa, that you're motoring along at 120
kph when you go around the bend and see this *wall* of crucifixes that
mark a two hundred foot drop onto a poultry farm, said wall conveniently
blocking your view of the two on-coming army trucks that are taking up
all possible space on the road ahead.

A good driver probably will survive. Does this mean the road is safe?
Post by Raymond Speer
Frex, Chester Allan Arthur's tale of a 1930 Mississippi transplanted to
1860s is _ISOT_ done right. I encourage President Arthur to continue
that tale for a series of vignettes.
Here's another subgenre: pizza guy, lonely woman. Boom chicka bow-wow.

In skilled hands (dare I say, in Chet's hands) PGLW fiction needn't
devolve into Little Rob bathroom reading. One might even get a New
Yorker (or more likely, Esquire) story out of it. But the vast _vast_
majority of PGLW fiction is going to be one-handed reading material.

Same for ISOT.
Post by Raymond Speer
and his fascination with lesbian sex.
Take a look when Steverino introduces female point-of-view characters.
They literally check off the "am I a lesbian or not?" box in their
internal monologues within the first few paragraphs of their
introduction.

Yes, it's a little peculiar. Consider:

"Rod Blaine rubbed his nose thoughtfully. _Experimenting with my
classmates at the Academy really didn't do anything for me_, Blaine
thought. _I'll be glad when Sally gets back._"

"'It's those strange hotel rooms, babe,' Jack Ryan joked. 'They'll
do it every time.' But underneath his banter was a current of tension.
Could he tell his wife about the strong male hands of the attendants
at Wiesbaden that lovingly washed him after his near-fatal helicopter
crash? Could she know what he thought of while they were making love?
Fearfully Jack Ryan dispelled these thoughts from his mind."

And so on.
Charles Talleyrand
2003-09-01 04:33:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
In skilled hands (dare I say, in Chet's hands) PGLW fiction needn't
devolve into Little Rob bathroom reading. One might even get a New
Yorker (or more likely, Esquire) story out of it. But the vast _vast_
majority of PGLW fiction is going to be one-handed reading material.
Your last post in this thread had cumshots. This post has masterbation.
It's a good thing this is a child-free all-adult area.

-C.M.Talleyrand
Who doesn't want to get into a net.fight
Coyu
2003-09-01 09:17:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Talleyrand
Post by Coyu
In skilled hands (dare I say, in Chet's hands) PGLW fiction needn't
devolve into Little Rob bathroom reading. One might even get a New
Yorker (or more likely, Esquire) story out of it. But the vast _vast_
majority of PGLW fiction is going to be one-handed reading material.
Your last post in this thread had cumshots. This post has masterbation.
It's a good thing this is a child-free all-adult area.
Obviously, since you have objected to my imagery twice, you're
uncomfortable with the analogy.

But you're also one of shwi's worst posters when it comes to magic
box crap.

Maybe, just maybe, some part of you realizes the connection.
Charles Talleyrand
2003-09-02 02:54:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Obviously, since you have objected to my imagery twice, you're
uncomfortable with the analogy.
But you're also one of shwi's worst posters when it comes to magic
box crap.
Maybe, just maybe, some part of you realizes the connection.
Maybe, just maybe, that's full of crap.

I believe that I have posted "magic box crap" and that none of
it has any significant sexual imagery. In fact, I believe that I have
never posted anything with serious sexual imagery.

You have.

BTW, my average post is not "magic box crap". I think you
just tend to remember them more.
Coyu
2003-09-02 03:21:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Talleyrand
Post by Coyu
Obviously, since you have objected to my imagery twice, you're
uncomfortable with the analogy.
^^^^^^^
Post by Charles Talleyrand
Post by Coyu
But you're also one of shwi's worst posters when it comes to magic
box crap.
Maybe, just maybe, some part of you realizes the connection.
Maybe, just maybe, that's full of crap.
I believe that I have posted "magic box crap" and that none of
it has any significant sexual imagery. In fact, I believe that I have
never posted anything with serious sexual imagery.
You apparently aren't reading for content.

You like posting your power and time fantasies. I consider that
analogous to you posting your sexual fantasies. I ain't interested
in any of them; they're all equally off-topic.

Do they come from the same psychological root? I don't know in
your case, but in some posters they clearly do.
Post by Charles Talleyrand
BTW, my average post is not "magic box crap". I think you
just tend to remember them more.
Because you seem to put the most effort into them. "No, my magic
box really works like this! Why aren't you playing by my rules?!"
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-01 12:47:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Raymond Speer
I must part company from people who hold that time travel (either by an
individual or by a group) is a genre that ought to perish. I have no
allergy to time machines of any sort (not even the clunky mechanism of
Mark Twain by which a blow to the head sends Hank Morgan to a different
era).
Time travel, either forwards or backwards, makes for entertaining
-fiction-. Backward time travel is most likely impossible (given that
General Relativitiy is largely correct). See Deser's paper on the
matter. Backward time travel is a modern fairy tale. Period.

Backward time travel has no proper place in serious alternate history
studies.

Bob Kolker
Andrew Criddle
2003-09-01 20:01:05 UTC
Permalink
***@webtv.net (Raymond Speer) wrote in message news:<21277-3F51FAFD-***@storefull-2355.public.lawson.webtv.net>...

<SNIP>
Post by Raymond Speer
/_1_/ His acceptance of the myth that a Euro could blow on an Original
American pre-1492 and kill the O.A.;
Whatever SM Stirling's intent at the time it becomes reasonably
clear in later books that the prediction of extinction of the
Central Americans from disease made in ISOT, proves somewhat
exaggerated.
It is possible that we should regard the prediction as a
deliberate mind-game to drive to suicide the ecological zealot to
whom it is made.

Andrew Criddle
Faeelin
2003-09-02 15:12:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Criddle
<SNIP>
It is possible that we should regard the prediction as a
deliberate mind-game to drive to suicide the ecological zealot to
whom it is made.
Clever, but do you think that Steve could think of that?
Sophia
2003-08-30 16:37:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
But this subgenre is like a fsckin' Ebola zombie.
If only we had a voodoo priest to lay the monster back to rest.

Because of reader
Post by Coyu
expectations, many people are willing to accept nearly any amount of
implausible power fantasy as long as it has ISOT cumshots on a
regular schedule. It doesn't _matter_ whether the fantasy is moral
or immoral. Just as long as you have the cumshot.
An nasty image but true. ISOT is often fetishistic literature (nothing
wrong with that per se of course, in it's place), but the fetish isn't
about sex, it's about power, and unearned, bullying power at that.
There's a reason why ISOT's almost always degenerate into drooling
about weaponry and lovingly described turkey shoots.
Post by Coyu
I respect your artistic intention to take down ISOT till the rubble
bounces. But you don't want to be Samson in the temple.
USA 2002 ISOT 1942, the We Now Know version. But this would be
needlessly cruel to Dave Knudson,
I have actually considered writing this before now, but decided it
would come across as a personal attack on Mr Knudson, who is a
gentleman I respect.

and would probably cause screaming
Post by Coyu
conniption fits among the wingnut-slash-fanboy contingent on shwi.
Hmmm. Feature, not bug? No no no.
This on the hand seems definitely a bonus.
Post by Coyu
<...>
Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives. (Personal violence to Steverino in the past, no matter how
comical the situation you come up with, is unacceptable.)
We tried rational argument as to why it's inappropriate for SHWI and
got nowhere, so the only course left is to deconstruct it; identify
its mechanisms and tropes and show why they stupid and intellectually
bankrupt. Full literary deconstruction would probably go over the
heads of those who like to fantasise about how easily a modern fleet
could wreak havoc on a 1790s wooden one (*), but parody and mockery
are powerful tools.

(*) USS Enterprise vs HMS Victory, one of the most distasteful threads
I have read on SHWI
Sophia
Ivan Hodes
2003-08-30 22:59:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sophia
Post by Coyu
USA 2002 ISOT 1942, the We Now Know version. But this would be
needlessly cruel to Dave Knudson,
I have actually considered writing this before now, but decided it
would come across as a personal attack on Mr Knudson, who is a
gentleman I respect.
There's also the BoP to think of, although I suppose it would be
implicit, which is the best kind.
Too, it's more than a little facile to use the (brief) American
experience in Iraq as evidence of how the US of 2002 would treat
conquered 1942 Axis powers...
Post by Sophia
and would probably cause screaming
Post by Coyu
conniption fits among the wingnut-slash-fanboy contingent on shwi.
Hmmm. Feature, not bug? No no no.
This on the hand seems definitely a bonus.
Mildly smug & self-congratulatory joking aside, is it really?
Provoking shrieking and angry responses being a bonus, that is? I
would think that the point here is to try & maintain mannered
discourse about this 'history' business. Not to say we shouldn't post
controversial stuff--see my support of Anthony Mayer's "The Dirty
War"--but not for the sake of it being controversial and inflammatory.
Post by Sophia
We tried rational argument as to why it's inappropriate for SHWI and
got nowhere, so the only course left is to deconstruct it; identify
its mechanisms and tropes and show why they [are] stupid and intellectually
bankrupt.
Uh, yeah, that'll hold 'em. Haven't we (most effectively, you, as it
happens) already done this?
Post by Sophia
how easily a modern fleet
could wreak havoc on a 1790s wooden one (*), but parody and mockery
are powerful tools.
(*) USS Enterprise vs HMS Victory, one of the most distasteful threads
I have read on SHWI
This is getting more than a little silly. I assume you're talking
about the silly Enterprise vs. Ship-X thought-experiment thread?
While it was, as I said, silly, it actually revealed some mildly
interesting things about naval technology that I for one didn't
know--frex that modern aircraft carries don't have much in the way of
armaments. I understand that that kind of hardware discussion might
not be to your liking, but *this* is supposed to be more distasteful
than the Holocaust denial, the calls for mass murder of Muslims (where
you can literally sense the sexual pleasure)[1], the grotesque
distortions of history (perpetrated by folk from all sorts of
political backgrounds), the long threads of personal attacks, the
defences of pederasty, the descends into insanity, etc. etc.??? Come
now.

Ivan Hodes
Thomas Womack
2003-09-01 08:47:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
The problem is, _any_ drama involving an ISOT situation is suitable
for the ISOT Wank. A sordid little frisson of intertemporal ooooh.
What, doesn't the world have enough lingerie catalogs?
Anyway. I throw down the gauntlet to shwi: how would _you_ kill the
ISOT genre? Down in flames, till it is only a whisper in the Google
archives. (Personal violence to Steverino in the past, no matter how
comical the situation you come up with, is unacceptable.)
I think the answer is to take the ISOT in the other direction: to talk
at great length about how completely at a loss the US of 2003 is in
the peacefully unified world of 2317, any of whose neighborhood
policeman can easily disarm a carrier battle group and have it
transported by heavy lifter to a convenient museum location in the
middle of Nevada.

Alternatively drop the Eritrea of 2281, happily equipped with
nanofactories enough to render the industry of the US irrelevant, home
at the time to the revolving presidency of the Planetary Union, and
equipped with the neighborhood policemen above, into our time-line and
watch what happens.

It's much less fun if the balance of power is on the side of people
that you can't identify with, brutal resistance is obviously and
bloodlessly futile, and peaceful resistance against overwhelming
benevolence no fun at all. Doesn't have a sufficient dampening effect
on the lesbian sex, of course, and (since referring to the future) is
explicitly off-topic for SHWI.

Tom [who sold off all his SMStirling and vowed never to read, let
alone buy, any of his again, after about the last-but-three of these
discussions]
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-03 14:09:06 UTC
Permalink
That sort of ISOT [the ones where future societies ISOT to the present--Ed.] has never been explored, yet I find it more
fascinating than the obverse.
The problem is, those kinds really actually *aren't* historical, in
that they involve future societies which must needs be completely
fictional. No interaction between fiction and the historical process,
so not AH. These I would fight tooth and nail (metaphorically) as
off-topic.

Ivan Hodes
kamil
2003-09-04 09:41:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ivan Hodes
That sort of ISOT [the ones where future societies ISOT to the present--Ed.] has never been explored, yet I find it more
fascinating than the obverse.
The problem is, those kinds really actually *aren't* historical, in
that they involve future societies which must needs be completely
fictional. No interaction between fiction and the historical process,
so not AH. These I would fight tooth and nail (metaphorically) as
off-topic.
Maybe.

These type of thought experiments in how we would react, give us
understanding how the third world can and does react to the first
world.

First Contract by Greg Costikyan is a book about advanced aliens
dealings with primitive (third world by comparison) earth.

Reading this book made me realize just how a corrupting effect and
other negative effects the first world has on the third world, without
acting in any overtly negative way. This is a perspective I could not
gain as I could not really put myself into the mindset of a newly
discovered tribe or group.

Such senarios have much to teach us.

Kamil
Noel
2003-09-04 13:16:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by kamil
Post by Ivan Hodes
That sort of ISOT [the ones where future societies ISOT to the present--Ed.] has never been explored, yet I find it more
fascinating than the obverse.
The problem is, those kinds really actually *aren't* historical, in
that they involve future societies which must needs be completely
fictional. No interaction between fiction and the historical process,
so not AH. These I would fight tooth and nail (metaphorically) as
off-topic.
Maybe.
These type of thought experiments in how we would react, give us
understanding how the third world can and does react to the first
world.
First Contract by Greg Costikyan is a book about advanced aliens
dealings with primitive (third world by comparison) earth.
Reading this book made me realize just how a corrupting effect and
other negative effects the first world has on the third world, without
acting in any overtly negative way. This is a perspective I could not
gain as I could not really put myself into the mindset of a newly
discovered tribe or group.
Such senarios have much to teach us.
---Ouch. The book's point was exactly the _opposite_
of the lesson you took away from it.

Which leads me to believe that such scenarios might
not have anything to teach us.

Best,

Noel
kamil
2003-09-05 00:00:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Noel
Post by kamil
Post by Ivan Hodes
That sort of ISOT [the ones where future societies ISOT to the present--Ed.] has never been explored, yet I find it more
fascinating than the obverse.
The problem is, those kinds really actually *aren't* historical, in
that they involve future societies which must needs be completely
fictional. No interaction between fiction and the historical process,
so not AH. These I would fight tooth and nail (metaphorically) as
off-topic.
Maybe.
These type of thought experiments in how we would react, give us
understanding how the third world can and does react to the first
world.
First Contract by Greg Costikyan is a book about advanced aliens
dealings with primitive (third world by comparison) earth.
Reading this book made me realize just how a corrupting effect and
other negative effects the first world has on the third world, without
acting in any overtly negative way. This is a perspective I could not
gain as I could not really put myself into the mindset of a newly
discovered tribe or group.
Such senarios have much to teach us.
---Ouch. The book's point was exactly the _opposite_
of the lesson you took away from it.
* Selling 70% of solar systems wealth for the equivalent of a galactic
encyclopedia on CD.
* Total economic chaos
* US president bribed with billions of dollars and presumably other
positions in democratic government.
* Extraterritoriality (alien captain shooting down government police
forces which try to pursue a criminal with a ticket on a ship)
* An industrial collapse of most native earth based manufacturing.
* A similar collapse in culture and art as tries to sell genuine
highly valued earth art to galactic tourists.
* The general corrupting effect ultra rich tourists have.

In general the average person was worse of before the alien contact
then after, until the hero came up with strategies for earth to
compete.

All these show us what problems face the third world.
The book like history of say South Korea (which was poorer than
Ethiopia in 1960) examples of how to get out of the trap and use the
contact to really improve the situation.


Do You understand the negative as well as the positvie effects of such
a situation?
Post by Noel
Which leads me to believe that such scenarios might
not have anything to teach us.
Best,
Noel
Noel
2003-09-05 16:12:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
Post by kamil
Post by Ivan Hodes
That sort of ISOT [the ones where future societies ISOT to the present--Ed.] has never been explored, yet I find it more
fascinating than the obverse.
The problem is, those kinds really actually *aren't* historical, in
that they involve future societies which must needs be completely
fictional. No interaction between fiction and the historical process,
so not AH. These I would fight tooth and nail (metaphorically) as
off-topic.
Maybe.
These type of thought experiments in how we would react, give us
understanding how the third world can and does react to the first
world.
First Contract by Greg Costikyan is a book about advanced aliens
dealings with primitive (third world by comparison) earth.
Reading this book made me realize just how a corrupting effect and
other negative effects the first world has on the third world, without
acting in any overtly negative way. This is a perspective I could not
gain as I could not really put myself into the mindset of a newly
discovered tribe or group.
Such senarios have much to teach us.
---Ouch. The book's point was exactly the _opposite_
of the lesson you took away from it.
* Selling 70% of solar systems wealth for the equivalent of a galactic
encyclopedia on CD.
* Total economic chaos
* US president bribed with billions of dollars and presumably other
positions in democratic government.
* Extraterritoriality (alien captain shooting down government police
forces which try to pursue a criminal with a ticket on a ship)
* An industrial collapse of most native earth based manufacturing.
* A similar collapse in culture and art as tries to sell genuine
highly valued earth art to galactic tourists.
* The general corrupting effect ultra rich tourists have.
In general the average person was worse of before the alien contact
then after, until the hero came up with strategies for earth to
compete.
All these show us what problems face the third world.
The book like history of say South Korea (which was poorer than
Ethiopia in 1960) examples of how to get out of the trap and use the
contact to really improve the situation.
Do You understand the negative as well as the positvie effects of such
a situation?
---DAMMMIT! I just spent 45 minutes
composing an essay about why these
scenarios tell us nothing, and the
computer ate it. "Internal server
error" my ass.

Alright, Kamil, I've got to be briefer.
This is probably good. Don't take the
brusqueness personally.

(Your last sentence was unnecessarily
snarky, my friend.)

"First Contract" is a parable that uses
international trade theory to illustrate
that trade between poor countries and rich
countries is good for poor countries. The
initial economic and political impact of
First Contact is deliberately written to
be ludicrous. This is for two reasons.
First, Costikyan is using humor to make
a point. Sort of like what Paul Krugman
does, only more so. Second, by making
the collapse ludicrously and ridiculously
massive, he further hammers home the point
that Earth is much better off for being
able to trade with more-advanced societies.

E.g., for all the awful collapse of the
Guatemalan indigenous indigo dye industry
(or, hell, it's inefficient and protected
heavy industries), Guatemala is better off
because it can trade with Canada.

Everybody besides Mukerjii acts like an
idiot because that's _funny_. Mukerjii's
"strategies" are the only possible option.
Costikyan is not writing one of these neo-
fascist Randian fantasies in which a single
sabio Ubermensch saves the day. Rather, the
whole point is to show that trade makes poor
countries richer despite themselves. It
ain't like Mukerjii's strategies were any-
thing other than screamingly obvious, given
the situation. (For those who didn't get
the point, there's a dramatic reason Costi-
kyan had Mukerjii start making plastic doo-
dads in a maquiladora in Mexico.)

Comparative advantage. Costikyan is using
humor to teach Ricardian trade theory. Full
stop.

The book provides a useful allegory for
modern-current-right-now-ahorita-este-
momento trade between (say) Paraguay and
Switzerland. It say nothing about the
effects of the Spanish Empire on the
Arawaks. It provides neither facts nor
theory upon which to judge the effects
of such contact. It's portrayal of the
negative effects is, quite obviously, a
joke. I mean, c'mon, Kamil. More serious-
ly, there's no theory behind that part,
unlike the second half of the book, in
which Earth becomes richer than ever
before based on selling cheap plastic
shoes to space aliens.

Kind of like the way Guatemala has become
richer than ever before (albeit not very
rich) selling cheap plastic shoes to space
aliens, or Canadians, or whoever.

You've taken away from the book the exact
opposite conclusion from the one Costikyan
was trying to make, which is, simply,
"Globalization is Good." Using his comical
set up to make a serious argument is, well,
silly. Like I said, there is neither fact
nor theory in that part of the book, although
there are plenty of giggles and guffaws.

Which is what Costikyan intended, of course.

If you want to make an argument about the
effects of contact between more advanced
and less advanced cultures, then use actual
historical examples of contact between more
advanced and less advanced cultures. See,
frex, the masterpiece by Mike Ralls and Doug
Muir on the effects of the Spaniards encounter-
ing a Mesoamerican civilization more advanced
than OTL's Mexica. But don't take a book
written to make a humorous point about contemp-
orary globalization to make serious arguments
about the "corrupting effect and other negative
effects the first world has on the third world."

It just isn't intellectually sensible. ¿Me ex-
plico? Don't take anything personally: I thought
your point was good enough to spend (oh shit!)
90 minutes on.

Anyway, Carlos could have said all this much
better, but I'm doing my bit to try to keep
magic boxes off of SHWI through relentless
intellectual hammering.

Best,

Noel

P.S. You're a college student, maybe
recently graduated, right? You seem like a very
smart guy, so I don't believe for a minute that
you "could not really put [your]self into the
mindset of a newly discovered tribe or group."
Lots of postmodernists in the history department
there?
James Nicoll
2003-09-05 16:21:16 UTC
Permalink
In article <***@posting.google.com>,
Noel <***@itam.mx> wrote:
snip
Post by Noel
You've taken away from the book the exact
opposite conclusion from the one Costikyan
was trying to make, which is, simply,
"Globalization is Good."
I'd say it's more "Globalization _can_
be good, in the long run." Consider the incentive
they have at the end of the book not to miss the
target date and imagine what happens if despite
their best plans and intentions they miss it
anyway.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
Sydney Webb
2003-09-06 06:14:03 UTC
Permalink
Noel wrote:

<snip>
WI Japan never colonized Taiwan, and it
fell into German hands?
Then it falls into Japanese hands, anyway, in 1914.

Unless, of course, Australia gets there first. Formosa then becomes one
big, happy Nauru.

- Syd, almost forgot the "Mwa-ha-ha!"
Tony Bailey
2003-09-06 23:36:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sydney Webb
Unless, of course, Australia gets there first. Formosa then becomes one
big, happy Nauru.
- Syd, almost forgot the "Mwa-ha-ha!"
So AH challenge - Maximum Australia?
--
Tony Bailey
Mercury World Travel
Mercury Travel Books
Bruce Munro
2003-09-08 22:37:48 UTC
Permalink
How many suffering lands can we arrange to be put under the
Australian boot, anyway?
POD: What with one thing and another, after the Great
Eurasian War of 1939-1947, Japan finds itself divided between
two administrative zones: the North, run by the Soviets, and the
South, originally UKian but later Australian because the UK decided
it had more pressing concerns elsewhere.
Any notion what the administratice costs of running Japan for the
first couple years was OTL, and how large the Australian budget was at
the time?
Wouldn't the second determine the first? Or at least put limits
on it?
I'm just wondering if they will raise objections to having the cost of
running Japan dumped on them. Also, someone is going to have to pay
for an army to defend South Japan from North Japan's Peerless Leader.

Bruce Munro
James Nicoll
2003-09-09 02:43:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bruce Munro
How many suffering lands can we arrange to be put under the
Australian boot, anyway?
POD: What with one thing and another, after the Great
Eurasian War of 1939-1947, Japan finds itself divided between
two administrative zones: the North, run by the Soviets, and the
South, originally UKian but later Australian because the UK decided
it had more pressing concerns elsewhere.
Any notion what the administratice costs of running Japan for the
first couple years was OTL, and how large the Australian budget was at
the time?
Wouldn't the second determine the first? Or at least put limits
on it?
I'm just wondering if they will raise objections to having the cost of
running Japan dumped on them.
Speaking hypothetically, I'd guess if Australia was stuck with
Japan (As the UK is off trying to pursuade India to forget all these
silly 'self-determination' ideas or something) the first idea would be
to make the occupation pay for itself. How is an interesting question.
Post by Bruce Munro
Also, someone is going to have to pay
for an army to defend South Japan from North Japan's Peerless Leader.
See above.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
Ebenezer T. Squint
2003-09-09 05:27:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
<snip>
- Syd, almost forgot the "Mwa-ha-ha!"
How many suffering lands can we arrange to be put under the
Australian boot, anyway?
POD: What with one thing and another, after the Great
Eurasian War of 1939-1947, Japan finds itself divided between
two administrative zones: the North, run by the Soviets, and the
South, originally UKian but later Australian because the UK decided
it had more pressing concerns elsewhere.
Oz will have its hands full when the PRJ tries to reunite the Empire à la
OTL-Korea 1950.

Does this also mean Canada has taken over the duties of occupying the FRG?
::boggle::
(although, ditto "mwa-ha-ha")
Andrew Gray
2003-09-09 14:45:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Does this also mean Canada has taken over the duties of occupying the FRG?
(although, ditto "mwa-ha-ha")
Sorry, coffee not working: FRG?
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany); the bit that wasn't the
GDR/DDR... if the US didn't have an occupation zone, who got it? Canada
would seem an obvious choice...
--
-Andrew Gray
***@bigfoot.com
cernunnos
2003-09-09 15:52:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Gray
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Does this also mean Canada has taken over the duties of occupying the FRG?
(although, ditto "mwa-ha-ha")
Sorry, coffee not working: FRG?
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany); the bit that wasn't the
GDR/DDR... if the US didn't have an occupation zone, who got it? Canada
would seem an obvious choice...
And why would this be a problem? well, for non germans.
James Nicoll
2003-09-09 15:45:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Gray
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Does this also mean Canada has taken over the duties of occupying the FRG?
(although, ditto "mwa-ha-ha")
Sorry, coffee not working: FRG?
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany); the bit that wasn't the
GDR/DDR... if the US didn't have an occupation zone, who got it? Canada
would seem an obvious choice...
Or France. That should work out well.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
Andrew Gray
2003-09-09 16:10:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Nicoll
Post by Andrew Gray
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany); the bit that wasn't the
GDR/DDR... if the US didn't have an occupation zone, who got it? Canada
would seem an obvious choice...
Or France. That should work out well.
Didn't France have an occupation zone anyway, OTL?
--
-Andrew Gray
***@bigfoot.com
James Nicoll
2003-09-09 16:00:26 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Gray
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Does this also mean Canada has taken over the duties of occupying the FRG?
(although, ditto "mwa-ha-ha")
Sorry, coffee not working: FRG?
Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany); the bit that wasn't the
GDR/DDR... if the US didn't have an occupation zone, who got it? Canada
would seem an obvious choice...
This seems to be a horribly misguided post-War policy TL, so it seems
sad to let Canada off entirely.

[Brief unexamined assumptions: WWII w/o USA. Britain determined
to hold onto Empire or what was the war for? The White Dominions are going
along with this for some reason. Empire has Tubes and isn't sharing them,
although Canada probably has them as well]

How about the UK requests Canada to administer Palistine? And
someplace else hot and tropical, because Canadians are so used to the
tropics.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
Andrew Gray
2003-09-09 16:16:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Nicoll
This seems to be a horribly misguided post-War policy TL, so it seems
sad to let Canada off entirely.
[Brief unexamined assumptions: WWII w/o USA. Britain determined
to hold onto Empire or what was the war for? The White Dominions are going
along with this for some reason. Empire has Tubes and isn't sharing them,
although Canada probably has them as well]
How about the UK requests Canada to administer Palistine? And
someplace else hot and tropical, because Canadians are so used to the
tropics.
Well, it's obvious, really. Canada administers Palestine, and the
Brazilians get Austria to look after...

In fact, now I think about it, Canada would look after Libya - it's nice
and warm, like Palestine, but Palestine is going to get lots of Jewish
immigration, and we want occupation troops capable of dealing with
racial tensions by the expedient manner of being so used to them. Roll
on, the South African/Rhodesian Multinational Force...

[erk, I feel evil.]
--
-Andrew Gray
***@bigfoot.com
James Nicoll
2003-09-09 16:30:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Andrew Gray
Post by James Nicoll
This seems to be a horribly misguided post-War policy TL, so it seems
sad to let Canada off entirely.
[Brief unexamined assumptions: WWII w/o USA. Britain determined
to hold onto Empire or what was the war for? The White Dominions are going
along with this for some reason. Empire has Tubes and isn't sharing them,
although Canada probably has them as well]
How about the UK requests Canada to administer Palistine? And
someplace else hot and tropical, because Canadians are so used to the
tropics.
Well, it's obvious, really. Canada administers Palestine, and the
Brazilians get Austria to look after...
Huh.

Speaking of Brazil, assuming a longer war with no US, can we use
Brazil's involvement on the Allied side after Aug 1942 to build up Brazilian
industry and economy?

If they capitalize well enough on the War to leave it as a Power
or even a Great Power, Hitler's snake comment [1] might be as well known
a mistake as declaring war on the USA in OTL.
Post by Andrew Gray
In fact, now I think about it, Canada would look after Libya - it's nice
and warm, like Palestine, but Palestine is going to get lots of Jewish
immigration, and we want occupation troops capable of dealing with
racial tensions by the expedient manner of being so used to them. Roll
on, the South African/Rhodesian Multinational Force...
I was hoping to highlight Canadian anti-semitism of that era
but SA/R works too.
Post by Andrew Gray
[erk, I feel evil.]
"Dark Commonwealth"?

James Nicoll

1: When Hitler heard Brazil was in on the Allied side, he made a crack
like "Brazil will fight Germany when cobras smoke pipes", which is why one
of the arm patches used by Brazilian troops in Europe was a pipe-smoking
snake.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
James Nicoll
2003-09-06 15:08:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by James Nicoll
snip
Post by Noel
You've taken away from the book the exact
opposite conclusion from the one Costikyan
was trying to make, which is, simply,
"Globalization is Good."
I'd say it's more "Globalization _can_
be good, in the long run." Consider the incentive
they have at the end of the book not to miss the
target date and imagine what happens if despite
their best plans and intentions they miss it
anyway.
---Hah! Almost forgot about that bit.
It's a good book; I highly recommend it.
Even if you have your doubts about global-
ization, it's a rollicking fun ride.
But now we're totally OT! So ... WI space
aliens ... no ... WI cheap plastic toys ...
nope ... got it. Gets right to the point.
WI Japan never colonized Taiwan, and it
fell into German hands?
That's a perfectly valid WI but the one I
would have gone for is WI the Galactic Federation
contacts us and turns out to be run by Strossian
superintelligences?

At Worldcon he commented that entities that
were much smarter than us might be appear quite friendly
(In the manner I apparently do to every feral cat and
skunk[1] within ten kilometers) but whenever there was
a conflict between what they wanted and what we wanted
they would always turn out to be a dozen steps ahead
of us. So despite our best efforts, we soon find that
the principles the GF wants us to adopt are being adopted,
even if we don't quite understand how it is that came to
happen.



1: Skunks make good pets, although they are not the sharpest
pencil in the box. Too many cases of rabies amongst the local
skunks for me to risk petting them and I am not sure if adult
feral skunks understand domestication.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
kamil
2003-09-06 00:34:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by Noel
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
Post by kamil
These type of thought experiments in how we would react, give us
understanding how the third world can and does react to the first
world.
First Contract by Greg Costikyan is a book about advanced aliens
dealings with primitive (third world by comparison) earth.
Reading this book made me realize just how a corrupting effect and
other negative effects the first world has on the third world, without
acting in any overtly negative way. This is a perspective I could not
gain as I could not really put myself into the mindset of a newly
discovered tribe or group.
Such scenarios have much to teach us.
---Ouch. The book's point was exactly the _opposite_
of the lesson you took away from it.
* Selling 70% of solar systems wealth for the equivalent of a galactic
encyclopedia on CD.
* Total economic chaos
* US president bribed with billions of dollars and presumably other
positions in democratic government.
* Extraterritoriality (alien captain shooting down government police
forces which try to pursue a criminal with a ticket on a ship)
* An industrial collapse of most native earth based manufacturing.
* A similar collapse in culture and art as tries to sell genuine
highly valued earth art to galactic tourists.
* The general corrupting effect ultra rich tourists have.
In general the average person was worse of before the alien contact
then after, until the hero came up with strategies for earth to
compete.
All these show us what problems face the third world.
The book like history of say South Korea (which was poorer than
Ethiopia in 1960) examples of how to get out of the trap and use the
contact to really improve the situation.
Do You understand the negative as well as the positive effects of such
a situation?
Alright, Kamil, I've got to be briefer.
This is probably good. Don't take the
brusqueness personally.
No Problem. I apologize in advanced for any brusqueness as I have am
not eloquent and have difficulty with the written form, leading me to
adopt a rather list of points and abrupt posting style.
Post by Noel
(Your last sentence was unnecessarily
snarky, my friend.)
I'm sorry you took it that way, it was not meant to be snarky.

First of all I would like to clarify a few points.

I understand Comparative advantage
and its role in Ricardian trade theory.
Post by Noel
P.S. You're a college student, maybe
recently graduated, right? You seem like a very
smart guy, so I don't believe for a minute that
you "could not really put [your]self into the
mindset of a newly discovered tribe or group."
Lots of postmodernists in the history department
there?
I have graduated BSc in Computing Science almost 2 years ago.
(What a fascinating but economically disastrous decision that was)
The majority of my arts options were in economics specifically
microeconomics, which I discovered and found fascinating.

I put in a significant amount of time trying to come up with why there
is such a wide discrepancy in the economies first world former second
world and third world countries.

The difference in the business culture, corruption, social
institutions of third world, former second world and the first world
is so great it is difficult to comprehend.

Both my parents run (very) small business in Canada although they
could and were offered positions that make more money working for
someone else. On both sides of my family our relatives in Poland
started in 90's and are successful small businessmen.

We have 3 times tried to exploit different opportunities of businesses
that require both part Polish and Canadian relationship. Members of
our family in Poland (who are running and expanding their own
successful small businesses there now and at the time) could liaison
at any time, as well as us in Canada spend significant time in Poland
setting this up.

Small businesses have to deal with the mafia, corruption,
dysfunctional legal system we were prepared to face these challenges.
Each of our opportunities was killed by corruption and a
dysfunctional, irrational and irresponsible business culture

We came to the conclusion that the only way we could partner or do
business with a small business in Poland was if one of us moved there.

Large-scale businesses generally do not have these problems and or
they can be easier to overcome, the situation is improving.

This pathological culture resulted from communism were many Poles
considered it patriotic duty to be corrupt and stick it to communism
and were/are proud of this.


My understanding of the third world is that these problems are a lot
worse, and are not improving, and I could not understand why not,
This book provided insight into this through this device.
Post by Noel
"First Contract" is a parable that uses
international trade theory to illustrate
that trade between poor countries and rich
countries is good for poor countries. The
initial economic and political impact of
First Contact is deliberately written to
be ludicrous. This is for two reasons.
First, Costikyan is using humor to make
a point. Sort of like what Paul Krugman
does, only more so. Second, by making
the collapse ludicrously and ridiculously
massive, he further hammers home the point
that Earth is much better off for being
able to trade with more-advanced societies.
E.g., for all the awful collapse of the
Guatemalan indigenous indigo dye industry
(or, hell, it's inefficient and protected
heavy industries), Guatemala is better off
because it can trade with Canada.
Everybody besides Mukerjii acts like an
idiot because that's _funny_. Mukerjii's
"strategies" are the only possible option.
This seams obvious to us in the first world now
With examples of the tiger economies and
Classical economic training having no real competition.
(Marxism discredited)

How obvious was it to the third world in 1900 - 1950s?
Post by Noel
Costikyan is not writing one of these neo-
fascist Randian fantasies in which a single
sabio Ubermensch saves the day. Rather, the
whole point is to show that trade makes poor
countries richer despite themselves. It
ain't like Mukerjii's strategies were any-
thing other than screamingly obvious, given
the situation. (For those who didn't get
the point, there's a dramatic reason Costi-
kyan had Mukerjii start making plastic doo-
dads in a maquiladora in Mexico.)
I do not regard that book as a
Randian fantasy with Ubermensch.
Post by Noel
Comparative advantage. Costikyan is using
humor to teach Ricardian trade theory. Full
stop.
The book provides a useful allegory for
modern-current-right-now-ahorita-este-
momento trade between (say) Paraguay and
Switzerland. It say nothing about the
effects of the Spanish Empire on the
Arawaks. It provides neither facts nor
theory upon which to judge the effects
of such contact. It's portrayal of the
negative effects is, quite obviously, a
joke.
I mean, c'mon, Kamil. More serious-
ly, there's no theory behind that part,
Can you expand on this point? I think
there is some theory behind this part.
as the destabilizing and corrupting
effects follow logically. Why do you
believe the effects were jokes?

I have read theories that attribute the
economic growth and power of the
first world countries mainly to strong
enforceable property rights and
non-corrupt legal system enabling the
creation of stock markets and loans
secured against property resulting
with much easier access to capital.

It seemed that this foundation is
threatened by corrupting and
disrupting effects of a much richer economy.
Post by Noel
unlike the second half of the book, in
which Earth becomes richer than ever
before based on selling cheap plastic
shoes to space aliens.
I may not of been clear I totally agree
with the second part of the book, I consider
the first part insightful as well.
Post by Noel
Kind of like the way Guatemala has become
richer than ever before (albeit not very
rich) selling cheap plastic shoes to space
aliens, or Canadians, or whoever.
You've taken away from the book the exact
opposite conclusion from the one Costikyan
was trying to make, which is, simply,
"Globalization is Good." Using his comical
set up to make a serious argument is, well,
silly. Like I said, there is neither fact
nor theory in that part of the book, although
there are plenty of giggles and guffaws.
Which is what Costikyan intended, of course.
If you want to make an argument about the
effects of contact between more advanced
and less advanced cultures, then use actual
historical examples of contact between more
advanced and less advanced cultures. See,
frex, the masterpiece by Mike Ralls and Doug
Muir on the effects of the Spaniards encounter-
ing a Mesoamerican civilization more advanced
than OTL's Mexica. But don't take a book
written to make a humorous point about contemp-
orary globalization to make serious arguments
about the "corrupting effect and other negative
effects the first world has on the third world."
I am not overly interested in the cultural effect of meeting an
advanced culture but mostly as it effects economics of both places.
Post by Noel
It just isn't intellectually sensible. ¿Me ex-
plico?
Don't take anything personally: I thought
your point was good enough to spend (oh shit!)
90 minutes on.
It took my at least twice as long to respond.
Post by Noel
Best,
Noel
Thanks

Kamil
Noel
2003-09-07 18:08:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
Everybody besides Mukerjii acts like an
idiot because that's _funny_. Mukerjii's
"strategies" are the only possible option.
This seams obvious to us in the first world now
With examples of the tiger economies and
Classical economic training having no real competition.
(Marxism discredited)
How obvious was it to the third world in 1900 - 1950s?
---Uh ... um ... sorry, but I have no idea
what you're getting at. I understand that
there were a lot of protectionist and inter-
ventionist ideas floating around. That
doesn't alter my point. An economy that
was open would see people concentrating
in whatever the comparative advantage was.
Full stop. How voters or governments then
decided to set trade policy is a whole
'nother story.
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
Costikyan is not writing one of these neo-
fascist Randian fantasies in which a single
sabio Ubermensch saves the day. Rather, the
whole point is to show that trade makes poor
countries richer despite themselves. It
ain't like Mukerjii's strategies were any-
thing other than screamingly obvious, given
the situation. (For those who didn't get
the point, there's a dramatic reason Costi-
kyan had Mukerjii start making plastic doo-
dads in a maquiladora in Mexico.)
I do not regard that book as a
Randian fantasy with Ubermensch.
---That twasn't clear from your post.
Sorry if I took you the wrong way.
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
I mean, c'mon, Kamil. More serious-
ly, there's no theory behind that part,
Can you expand on this point? I think
there is some theory behind this part.
as the destabilizing and corrupting
effects follow logically. Why do you
believe the effects were jokes?
---Uh ... because they were completely
ridiculous, and deliberately written to
be completely ridiculous. Dude! You
didn't really take that part of the book
seriously, did you? It was all totally
over the top! I mean ... uh ...
Post by kamil
I have read theories that attribute the
economic growth and power of the
first world countries mainly to strong
enforceable property rights and
non-corrupt legal system enabling the
creation of stock markets and loans
secured against property resulting
with much easier access to capital.
It seemed that this foundation is
threatened by corrupting and
disrupting effects of a much richer economy.
---Oh, you mean in the real world?

Maybe. Sometimes. Not always. Contact
with a much richer economy has reduced
corruption in Mexico. Who knows? No
theory here, just a lot of theorizing,
which is a different thing.
Post by kamil
Post by Noel
unlike the second half of the book, in
which Earth becomes richer than ever
before based on selling cheap plastic
shoes to space aliens.
I may not of been clear I totally agree
with the second part of the book, I consider
the first part insightful as well.
---I just consider it funny.

Best,

Noel
Phil Edwards
2003-09-04 07:42:35 UTC
Permalink
How do we deal with a Newfoundland, say,
which is so far in advance of us scientifically and in civilization,
as to be completely alien? How do we cope - develop cargo cults?
worship them? try panicky and completely ineffective resistance?
James Tiptree Jr looks at this in a couple of her short stories. Ask
over on rasfw - someone will know what I'm talking about. (More
generally, it's an interesting thought, but it's not history.)

Phil
--
Phil Edwards ***@amroth.zetnet.co.uk
"This group is dominated by weird leftist
social studies teacher types." - John Freck
Fleetlord Hart
2003-09-02 17:23:44 UTC
Permalink
Dear God, not this flamefest again...

Without naming names, it seems that Some People were not present when
our current FAQ'er, Mr. Mayer, took a poll regarding the topicality of
the Wide-Area Timeshift[1]. That discussion eventually reached the
conclusion that WATs were on-topic, if not as highly regarded as the
more subtle WIs. Some People need to accept this consensus and get the
frell over it.

Some Other Blokes, specifically those who are avid fans of the WAT,
should keep in mind that WATs tend to reach predictable conclusions
and have an annoying tendency to attract unsavory characters, much
like WIs about the U.S. Civil War. While this does -not- render the
WAT inherently "bad" any more than it renders ACW discussions "bad",
Blokes considering posting a WAT scenario should first stop and think
about whether this new WAT adds something new to the NG or merely goes
over well-trodden ground.

With that said, can we please close this thread and get on with life?

-Joe Hart, awaiting rotten tomatos from both sides...

[1] I think part of the reason this debate is so persistant is the
NG's unfortunate convention of referring to Wide-Area Timeshifts by
the name of a S.M. Stirling novel in that genre. I say unfortuante
becuase S.M.S. is a) not the sole originator of the concept, and b)
considered by many posters, including this one, to be disgustingly
evil, for reasons I shall not repeat here. Perhaps a change in
nomenclature is in order?
James Nicoll
2003-09-02 17:30:13 UTC
Permalink
In article <***@posting.google.com>,
Fleetlord Hart <***@iit.edu> wrote:

snip
Post by Fleetlord Hart
[1] I think part of the reason this debate is so persistant is the
NG's unfortunate convention of referring to Wide-Area Timeshifts by
the name of a S.M. Stirling novel in that genre. I say unfortuante
becuase S.M.S. is a) not the sole originator of the concept, and b)
considered by many posters, including this one, to be disgustingly
evil, for reasons I shall not repeat here. Perhaps a change in
nomenclature is in order?
Hoylist is in use for another purpose but what about
"Octoberist Historical Agglomerations"? After the Hoyle, of
course.
--
It's amazing how the waterdrops form: a ball of water with an air bubble
inside it and inside of that one more bubble of water. It looks so beautiful
[...]. I realized something: the world is interesting for the man who can
be surprised. -Valentin Lebedev-
Jack Linthicum
2003-08-30 16:16:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
If Pres. Arthur can do an ISOT, I guess the floodgates are open, so...
ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.
The ASBs are celebrating another year of meddling with human history,
fascinating timeline experiments, and good clean fun. One of the intoxicated
aliens stumbles into the ISOT control panel and hits a bunch of buttons at
random. "Oops! Wonder what I did?"
David Doyle is bringing in his lobster catch. He shouldn't be working at
midnight on New Year's Eve, but his family needs the money since the cod
fishery collapsed. He sees the lighthouses in St. John's harbour in the
distance through the sleet. Suddenly a wall of light appears between his
boat and the land, like the Aurora Borealis come down to the ocean's
surface. A second later it disappears. Doyle can still see the outline of
the coast, but the lighthouses are gone. As he comes nearer, he sees that
ALL the buildings are gone!
Precisely at midnight, all over Newfoundland, there are power failures as
the lines from the hydroelectric dams on the mainland are cut. Those who
still have power or batteries notice that all radio and television
broadcasts from the outside world have stopped. All telephone lines to the
mainland have gone dead. Everyone on the Internet suddenly has access only
to the handful of local websites and newsgroups.
Why not 11.57? or 12:18? AST means Atlantic Standard Time not Alien
Space Bat Time. What are the ASBs doing celebrating New Years? Do they
have closing hours?
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Panic spreads quickly as the Islanders fear the worst, that the rest of the
world has been obliterated in a thermonuclear exchange. As the hours pass,
the Provincial authorities try to keep order in St. John's and find out what
is happening. A call from the Faculty of Science at Memorial University
informs the shocked Premier and his cabinet that the date is Jan. 1, 1000AD!
Incoming ships and planes fail to appear, and ougoing ones (those that don't
run out of fuel) return, reporting that there is nowhere to go. Within hours
CBC Newfoundland reports the unbelieveable truth to the public, that the
Island of Newfoundland (minus Labrador) has gone back 1000 years in time!
Librarians all over the island rush down to their libraries and hide
the Island in the Sea of Time paperbacks on their exchange shelf.
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
As the pointless debate begins on how it happened, more immediate problems
are becoming apparent. The Island's economy begins to collapse immediately,
since all imports and exports have ceased. The Newfoundland government
assumes control of the military and all other Federal institutions, and
declares that Canadian currency is still legal tender, although the
government that printed it no longer exists. Distraught foreigners marooned
on Newfoundland are granted citizenship and given such assistance as they
require. Gradually, as order is restored, the Island economy makes the
painful shift toward self-sufficiency. As the weeks and months pass, horses
are bred to tow the vehicles that run out of fuel, and motor boats are
refitted with sail. Much of the power grid is restored as new generators are
turned on and fuel reserves are requisitioned for them, power rationing is
announced, and plans are made for new small dams and windmills.
How does the Island deal with the loss of trade from the rest of the world?
Thanks to geographical records, everyone knows where all the resources are,
but is any attempt made to exploit them? Petroleum, coal and gas might be
extracted and refined, but owners of motor vehicles will still face the
long-term problem of no replacement parts. Is there a large-scale return to
steam power? Libraries can be searched for the technical plans to build any
industry or service the Island might require, but which ones will be
considered a priority? Which ones (eg. medicines, electrical equipment,
small engines) are within feasibility for the approximately half-million
population?
How does Newfoundland popular culture deal with its sudden and complete
isolation? How does it help Newfoundlanders adjust to their new situation?
Is there an overwhelming sense of nostalgia for the world left behind?
The Irish Descendants write a new song "Where Were You when this
Shithole Finally Went to Hell?", it is covered by 12 groups before
some realizes there is no market outside Newfoundland.
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
In 2000AD, Newfoundland is a minor province of an average country, but in
1000AD it might as well be Atlantis. Does the Newfoundland government
declare a policy of non-interference with the outside world? How many
curious Newfoundlanders ignore this declaration and go off looking for
adventure out of a desire to remake the world in their image (or sheer
boredom?)
Will some adventurous-feeling Newfoundlanders decide to sail to the American
mainland and try to set up their own empires? How many of these have any
success, and how many are treated to a Ponce de Leon impersonation? Of the
successful ones, what happens when their empires collapse from imported
diseases?
Collecting the bodies of the dead Indians as they work their way down
the coast.
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
What does Leif Ericsson tell the other Icelanders when he returns from this
"Vinland?" Do other Newfies save him the trip? Does anyone decide to cross
the Atlantic with firearms and try to put an end to the Viking raids?
Leif gives up trying to explain to these Irish drunks that he is a
Greenlander, that Vikings are old-hat and could he have another slug
of that stuff in the square bottle. And by the way now that its empty
could he have the bottle too?
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Does the Newfoundland Catholic Church recognize Pope Sylvester II as its
nominal head? Do irresponsible Protestants decide to try and inspire an
early Reformation?
If the Government of Newfoundland does decide to meddle with the outside
world, or at least try to undo the damage done by these adventurers, does it
attempt to establish contact with the monarchies of Western Europe? Do the
Kings welcome the opportunity to advance their technology hundreds of years
ahead of their rivals? Or does Europe conclude that Satan himself has
established an island realm across the sea, burn the ambassadors at the
stake and refuse all further contact?
Every man jack with a boat goes out to the Banks and catches a boat
load of cod and hauls it back to the shore. Any surplus and all the
fish guts are dumped on the local Canadian Fisherys Department office
and the home of Gerry Byrne.
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Finally, what does Canada 2000AD do with a Newfoundland that has suddenly
been repopulated with a few thousand Beothuks?
Kill them, same as last time. First learn the language, try giving
them medicine and then sell them iron shovels to bury their dead.
President Chester A. Arthur
2003-09-01 16:54:57 UTC
Permalink
Subject: Re: Killing a subgenre (was ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.)
Date: 9/1/2003 11:06 AM Eastern Daylight Time
I'd say ISOTs are more like one of many exits on the s.h.w.i. highway,
where readers are free to take that exit and stop in the rest area to
stretch their legs or drive on to the next exit down the road.
The problem is that some people insist on dragging a "Road Closed" sign
across the exit and become upset when other people simply drive around
the sign.
I'd stay out of this, but it's my fault the discussion got re-opened. If I'm
going to make others wade through, I shouldn't be afraid to get my own feet
dirty.

Yes. Some people insist on posting alternate history to this alternate history
newsgroup, whereas others do not. The divide is actually right there. RASFW has
a high population of idiots, true, but so do all newsgroups, there's no reason
why you can't post there[1].

I too know the call of ahistorical posting here: it's so damn erudite that even
the most ignorant posting is likely to get at least one clever response. But
this one kind of posting has run thin. It's just the one crowd, now.
Looks like this thread is another attempt at turning s.h.w.i. into
soc.history.our.treefort.keep.out. "No Grrls or ISOTs Allowed!"
Yep, and here comes the part where you[2] question the maturity of people
trying to keep SHWI on-topic. Next comes "Get a girlfriend/life/you're a Nazi!"
Or maybe you'll call me a PC thug like Mike Miller. Monty Python quotes will
probably come up.


[1] I'm sorry, James, that was low.
[2] Not you you. Well, come to think of it, yes, you.


----

"What a shame wood doesn't grow on trees, otherwise you could burn that
for warmth."
-Syd Webb
Ed Stasiak
2003-09-01 22:58:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Yes. Some people insist on posting alternate history to this
alternate history newsgroup, whereas others do not.
ISOTs are alternate history.
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
I too know the call of ahistorical posting here: it's so damn
erudite that even the most ignorant posting is likely to get at
least one clever response.
The #1 and #2 replies in this thread are from you and Coyu.

If y'all had simply ignored it, everybody else probably would
have also, instead it turned into... this.
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Yep, and here comes the part where you[2] question the maturity
of people trying to keep SHWI on-topic. Next comes "Get a
girlfriend/life/you're a Nazi!" Or maybe you'll call me a PC
thug like Mike Miller.
Nope, I'm only questioning why you are incapable of ignoring
a thread that is clearly labeled ISOT, who is twisting your
arm and making you read it?
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Monty Python quotes will probably come up.
"No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!"
(ok, ya got me there)
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-01 23:21:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
ISOTs are alternate history.
No. They are science fiction.

Bob Kolker
David Johnston
2003-09-02 06:27:59 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 01 Sep 2003 23:21:04 GMT, "Robert J. Kolker"
Post by Robert J. Kolker
Post by Ed Stasiak
ISOTs are alternate history.
No. They are science fiction.
Alternate history is science fiction.
cernunnos
2003-09-02 06:32:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by David Johnston
On Mon, 01 Sep 2003 23:21:04 GMT, "Robert J. Kolker"
Post by Robert J. Kolker
Post by Ed Stasiak
ISOTs are alternate history.
No. They are science fiction.
Alternate history is science fiction.
Ah, dont say that. there are a few here who hold there noses up at science
fiction and take umbrage at anyone comparing AH to it.
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-02 08:53:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by cernunnos
Ah, dont say that. there are a few here who hold there noses up at science
fiction and take umbrage at anyone comparing AH to it.
Some science fiction is also alternatie history. For example
-Aristotle's Gun-. What makes it sci fi is how a time line traveler got
from our time line to the past and created a new time line. Science
fiction that invokes the many worlds hypothesis (explicitly or
implicitly) would fall into the category of alternate history.

Bob Kolker
Jussi Jalonen
2003-09-02 08:57:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by cernunnos
Ah, dont say that. there are a few here who hold there noses up at science
fiction and take umbrage at anyone comparing AH to it.
So? If you find the atmosphere objectionable, there are separate
groups which are specifically dedicated to science fiction, and which
are the correct places for discussions regarding science fiction.

Personally, I consider this to be a _history_ group, as the name
indicates, and the fact that alternate history also happens to be one
of the traditional topics of sci-fi is, IMO, irrelevant to that issue.




Cheers,
Jalonen
Ed Stasiak
2003-09-02 18:19:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jussi Jalonen
Post by cernunnos
Ah, dont say that. there are a few here who hold there
noses up at science fiction and take umbrage at anyone
comparing AH to it.
So? If you find the atmosphere objectionable, there are separate
groups which are specifically dedicated to science fiction, and which
are the correct places for discussions regarding science fiction.
Personally, I consider this to be a _history_ group, as the name
indicates, and the fact that alternate history also happens to be one
of the traditional topics of sci-fi is, IMO, irrelevant to that issue.
But the point of a What If is to discuss the historical ramifications
of an alternative timeline and the place to do that is s.h.w.i., where
the people are "into" history and everybody knows each other and
gets along with each other (more or less).

If a sci-fi group is the "correct" place for ISOTs, then _everything_
we discuss in s.h.w.i. should be taken elsewhere and this group should
be allowed to wither away.

Want to talk about an alt-WWII?
Take it to soc.history.war.world-war-ii.

Want to discuss how the Civil War could have been different?
Then soc.history.war.us-civil-war is waiting for you.

Alt-Vikings in America?
Soc.history.medieval is place ya want to be.

Roman steam engines?
Soc.history.ancient or maybe soc.history.science.

Ect, ect, ect... All the above groups are the "correct" place to
discuss those subjects and _any_ What If y'all can come up will be
better served in a specialized group devoted to that particular
period/device/person/whatever that ya want to talk about.

Maybe I've missed them, but where are the ISOTs (or other threads)
that turn into debates _about_ the method of teleportation or
discussions of magic in an ATL? IMO, all this bitching about
evil ISOTs is a cure looking for a disease.
Jussi Jalonen
2003-09-03 08:44:38 UTC
Permalink
But the point of a What If is to discuss the historical ramifications of an
alternative timeline and the place to do that is s.h.w.i., where the people
are "into" history and everybody knows each other and gets along with each
other (more or less).
Right on. This is a perfectly accurate statement, and frankly, I don't
see just why you proceed to make a false analogy.
If a sci-fi group is the "correct" place for ISOTs, then _everything_ we
discuss in s.h.w.i. should be taken elsewhere and this group should be
allowed to wither away.
First off, I didn't specifically mention ISOT-scenarios in my comment,
I was referring to science fiction in general, and I made it clear
that I, myself, don't want this to turn into a science fiction
newsgroup. I can live with an occasional ISOT scenario, especially
since they are rather rare nowadays, but if there are people who wish
to turn this into an actual science fiction forum where scenarios
based on magic and fantasy would be day-to-day practice, and where
samples from the latest pulp novel by Stirling or whoever would be
posted and discussed on regular basis... well, frankly, they should go
somewhere else.
Want to talk about an alt-WWII?
Take it to soc.history.war.world-war-ii.
See, Ed, this, and the other examples you gave, is where you make your
mistake. Scenarios which deal with alternate Second World War, U.S.
Civil War, Viking expeditions or whatever are, as long as they are
based on at least a remotely plausible and realistic historical
premise or point of divergence are, as the name indicates,
_historical_, and therefore on-topic for this group - which, the last
time I checked, is a history forum, as the name "soc.history.what-if"
rather explicitly indicates. I honestly can't see on what basis you
jumped to the conclusion which you just made.




Cheers,
Jalonen
Ed Stasiak
2003-09-03 17:42:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jussi Jalonen
If a sci-fi group is the "correct" place for ISOTs, then _everything_ we
discuss in s.h.w.i. should be taken elsewhere and this group should be
allowed to wither away.
First off, I didn't specifically mention ISOT-scenarios in my comment,
I was referring to science fiction in general, and I made it clear
that I, myself, don't want this to turn into a science fiction
newsgroup. I can live with an occasional ISOT scenario, especially
since they are rather rare nowadays,
IMO s.h.w.i is hardly in danger of turning into a sci-fi group.

As you say, ISOT timelines are not very common and this thread
(ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 AD) received only _one_ reply that
was directly related to the title, and even then Mr.Linthicum
was razzing the poster.
Post by Jussi Jalonen
but if there are people who wish
to turn this into an actual science fiction forum where scenarios
based on magic and fantasy would be day-to-day practice,
If someone posts a totally stupid TL where magic is an integral
part of the story, the people in this group are perfectly capable
of just ignoring it or (more likely) ripping the poster a new one
for being OT.

As Mr. Webb points out down thread, out of 101 threads, 92% of them
can be classified as "traditional" WIs and Mr. Curtis points out in
the thread titled "ISOT's are declining in popularity on s.h.w.i"
that people are becoming less and less interested in them anyway, so
I don't see what the problem is.

If someone doesn't like a particular TL the way to kill it is to
ignore it, let it die on the vine from a lack of replies.
Post by Jussi Jalonen
and where
samples from the latest pulp novel by Stirling or whoever would be
posted and discussed on regular basis... well, frankly, they should go
somewhere else.
I personally don't mind people posting samples from published
alt.hist. stories since the discussions that result can still be
very informative (and the ragging Sterling gets here can be funny
as hell) but this isn't a big deal for me one way or the other.
Post by Jussi Jalonen
Want to talk about an alt-WWII?
Take it to soc.history.war.world-war-ii.
See, Ed, this, and the other examples you gave, is where you make your
mistake. Scenarios which deal with alternate Second World War, U.S.
Civil War, Viking expeditions or whatever are, as long as they are
based on at least a remotely plausible and realistic historical
premise or point of divergence are, as the name indicates,
_historical_, and therefore on-topic for this group - which, the last
time I checked, is a history forum, as the name "soc.history.what-if"
rather explicitly indicates. I honestly can't see on what basis you
jumped to the conclusion which you just made.
My gripe is that ISOTs are also on-topic and this argument has
already been hashed out (put ISOT in the title) and that despite
the ASB mechanism that is used to start a thread of that type,
the resulting discussion is still wholly historical.

IMO the important point this is this; Had this thread not devolved
into the same tired argument, would you have even bothered to read
or reply to the original post? The problem _isn't_ ISOTs, its people
_complaining about_ ISOTs.
Jack Linthicum
2003-09-03 23:00:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
As you say, ISOT timelines are not very common and this thread
(ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 AD) received only _one_ reply that
was directly related to the title, and even then Mr.Linthicum
was razzing the poster.
Since I have been mentioned by name I will offer the opinion that
these things will die of their own if you just let them hit the floor.
Monty Python was mentioned in one post and I find most of the ISOTs (I
prefer to follow Dr. Flint and call them Assiti works) are as silly as
the Python discovery that the residents of some London suburb must
have found their way from another London suburb by a highway that was
truly obvious. Until we get the residents of Catal Huyuk show up in
someplace like Cincinnati and take over I will live with the SF story
of the two scientists who "time balance" by going into the Roman past
and getting killed while their "balancers" end up as ward heelers in
New York.
The Horny Goat
2003-09-04 06:03:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jussi Jalonen
See, Ed, this, and the other examples you gave, is where you make your
mistake. Scenarios which deal with alternate Second World War, U.S.
Civil War, Viking expeditions or whatever are, as long as they are
based on at least a remotely plausible and realistic historical
premise or point of divergence are, as the name indicates,
_historical_, and therefore on-topic for this group - which, the last
time I checked, is a history forum, as the name "soc.history.what-if"
rather explicitly indicates. I honestly can't see on what basis you
jumped to the conclusion which you just made.
Exactly. Since I'm responding to Jussi (and I'm a Canadian) I'll offer
a NON-science fiction WI: "WI the 1942 Dieppe raid had been properly
executed and was considered in every way a success?"

No science fiction content there - just a WW2 operation executed with
a different outcome than OTL.

[In my opinion the main result besides quite a few non-dead Canadians
would be not really all that much different from OTL - that the
Anglo-American forces would have learned the lessons they learned from
Dieppe and applied them as OTL. Given the need to win the Battle of
the Atlantic that probably does NOT mean a Normandy landing much
before OTL...]

This is a huge difference from "What if the Canadians triumphed at
Dieppe due to airpower in the form of ISOT A-10s blasting everything
in the area to smithereens"
Andrew Gray
2003-09-04 16:13:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by The Horny Goat
[In my opinion the main result besides quite a few non-dead Canadians
would be not really all that much different from OTL - that the
Anglo-American forces would have learned the lessons they learned from
Dieppe and applied them as OTL. Given the need to win the Battle of
the Atlantic that probably does NOT mean a Normandy landing much
before OTL...]
Hmm. Two possible outcomes of a successful Dieppe:

1/ The radar station put out of action OTL was occupied, dismantled and
recovered as planned - OTL, the unit sent was fought off, but cut power
cables causing the station to go out of action. This caused details of
the problem to have to be sent in clear, and a secondary station
started, giving significant information to the Allies about the German
radar lines. If the station was occupied, there was a RAF radar
technician travelling with the Canadians who had been instructed to
examine it in detail and recover anything interesting; this would,
presumably, be obvious to the Germans once the Canadians withdrew, and
as such could cause interesting things to happen wrt the radar line that
didn't OTL - they would, ATL, know it had been compromised. Alternately,
of course, one lucky engagement could stop the few Canadians and the
tech well short of the station, and never have it go offline... this
would well put back the development of the radar-jamming techniques
significantly. And this is quire plausible even in an otherwise
sucessful raid...

2/ The Allies are seen to have *sucessfully* landed a regimental-sized
force on the Continent, occupied a port, and withdrawn in good order.
Compared to OTL, this is quite a black mark on the German army; there's
a possiblity for some heads to roll, in the short term, and in the long
term it may cause troops to be held closer to the beaches (the reserves
were based some tens of miles away at Dieppe, IIRC) or the defences to
be made stronger than OTL as insurance.
--
-Andrew Gray
***@bigfoot.com
Errol Cavit
2003-09-04 21:29:37 UTC
Permalink
The Horny Goat <***@home.com> wrote in message news:<***@4ax.com>...
<snip>>
Post by The Horny Goat
Exactly. Since I'm responding to Jussi (and I'm a Canadian) I'll offer
a NON-science fiction WI: "WI the 1942 Dieppe raid had been properly
executed and was considered in every way a success?"
No science fiction content there - just a WW2 operation executed with
a different outcome than OTL.
[In my opinion the main result besides quite a few non-dead Canadians
would be not really all that much different from OTL - that the
Anglo-American forces would have learned the lessons they learned from
Dieppe and applied them as OTL. Given the need to win the Battle of
the Atlantic that probably does NOT mean a Normandy landing much
before OTL...]
But would they learn the same lessons? What are the chances of
deciding that capturing a port for D-Day is "a goer". This leads to a
rather different Overlord. What are the possible candidates? Is
Cherboug is too far for good fighter cover?

Cheers
Errol Cavit
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-02 08:44:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by David Johnston
Alternate history is science fiction.
No it isn't. Winston Churchill's essay on the South Winning the Civil
War was not sci fi at all. There was no science invoked as in -The Guns
of the South-.

Bob Kolker
Noel
2003-09-02 01:32:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Yes. Some people insist on posting alternate history to this
alternate history newsgroup, whereas others do not.
ISOTs are alternate history.
---My turn, Chet!

Definitions aren't right or wrong, only useful or
not useful. Your definition of AH includes all time
travel stories and fantasies. It is not a useful
definition for a "soc" newsgroup. You can always
take it to alt.history.what-if. Which exists, by
the way.

A definition of AH which remains inside the boundaries
of a "soc" group deals only with things that could have
happened. Impossible thought experiments are permissible
only within the context of trying to think through the
results of a plausible POD. "WI India Street suddenly
appeared in the middle of London in 1756 does not
apply."

More generally, once you admit that ISOTs are AH,
you also have to admit "WI the Romans had tanks?"
or "WI helicopters dropped greenbacks onto Pancho
Villa's army in 1915?" or "WI I had a magic pin?"
There is no way to delimit it further without
being arbitrary.

Therefore, ISOTs aren't AH. Period. People have
decided to allow it on the NG, but that's a different
thing. Ditto, some are intelligent thought experiments
(Mr. Knudson's efforts, of which I am a fan) but that's
a different thing. You like 'em (although I admit to
not understanding why, since only Mr. Knudson's have
been remotely interesting), but that's a different
thing.
Post by Ed Stasiak
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
I too know the call of ahistorical posting here: it's so damn
erudite that even the most ignorant posting is likely to get at
least one clever response.
The #1 and #2 replies in this thread are from you and Coyu.
If y'all had simply ignored it, everybody else probably would
have also, instead it turned into... this.
---"This" is a correct claim that ISOTs are fantasies,
and therefore do not illustrate history or historical
processes. They are, BY DEFINITION, ahistorical. They
therefore do not belong on a "soc" NG.

You have made a logically inconsistent claim, which is
that you can admit ISOT but then prohibit other fantasy
scenarios. Unfortunately, that's logically impossible.
If you had admitted that and then went back to, "But I like
'em, and want 'em here" or provided an argument about
how they illustrate certain facets of the process of
history, then I never would have stuck my face in.
If you admit the former now, or provide a coherent
argument, then I'll withdraw. Otherwise, you're at
"fault" for prolonging this thread.
Post by Ed Stasiak
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Yep, and here comes the part where you[2] question the maturity
of people trying to keep SHWI on-topic. Next comes "Get a
girlfriend/life/you're a Nazi!" Or maybe you'll call me a PC
thug like Mike Miller.
Nope, I'm only questioning why you are incapable of ignoring
a thread that is clearly labeled ISOT, who is twisting your
arm and making you read it?
---I'd prefer not to have junk cluttering up my
screen. If I wanted ISOT, I could have gone to
alt.history.what-if. I don't want fantasy or
time travel or logical impossibilities, which
is why I am here in a _soc_ NG. I believe Chet
and Carlos feel the same way. There. You have
an answer.

Best,

Noel
Charles Talleyrand
2003-09-02 03:11:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Noel
More generally, once you admit that ISOTs are AH,
you also have to admit "WI the Romans had tanks?"
or "WI helicopters dropped greenbacks onto Pancho
Villa's army in 1915?" or "WI I had a magic pin?"
There is no way to delimit it further without
being arbitrary.
If you have to admit any POD is alternate history, you also
have to admit "What if a 1000 comets filled the sky
as Ceasar crossed the Rubicon?" and "What if an intelligent
society of Mastadons-derivities was discovered in the Amazon
Basin in 1855?" There is no way to delimit it further without
being arbitrary.

Therefore, we pick and choose the PODs that are interesting, and
hopefully ignore the others. What I find odd is that some people
cannot simply ignore the stuff they don't like, especially when it is
clearly labeled.
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-02 08:57:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Talleyrand
If you have to admit any POD is alternate history, you also
have to admit "What if a 1000 comets filled the sky
as Ceasar crossed the Rubicon?" and "What if an intelligent
society of Mastadons-derivities was discovered in the Amazon
Basin in 1855?" There is no way to delimit it further without
being arbitrary.
One can set the divide at either physical possibility (we insist that
all alternate worlds have the same physical laws as ours) or logical
consistency. We reject any logically inconsistent world out of hand. One
one insists on the same big bang for all possible alternative worlds
then one gets into questions of many world lines branching from quantum
events and into the question of free will.

The classical WI rests squarely on free will. So and so decided this way
instead of that way.

Bob Kolker
SwimLFS
2003-09-02 11:50:54 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Talleyrand
If you have to admit any POD is alternate history, you also
have to admit "What if a 1000 comets filled the sky
as Ceasar crossed the Rubicon?" and "What if an intelligent
society of Mastadons-derivities was discovered in the Amazon
Basin in 1855?" There is no way to delimit it further without
being arbitrary.
Yeah, umm, but, nope. Noel's point was that PoDs the spring up under
soc should be dependent on plausible alternative outcomes based on
historical social circumstance. Therefore, would-be Peshawar
Lancers/Roman Empire belongs not to Soc.history.what-if, but
alt.what-if, as the comets don't reflect trends or behaviors of the
late Roman Republic or early Empire.

Likewise, the discovery of Mastadon sapiens in 1855 is also
goboldy-gook in soc heading. Their existence could be, at most, a
secret history, or science fiction, a la _The Lost World_, but not
alternate history in the soc sense as intellegent mastadons don't
derive from trends that fall under the soc. heading, but rather
science/evolution. So, you mastadon sapiens could go under
sci.evolution.what-if, but not here.
Post by Charles Talleyrand
Therefore, we pick and choose the PODs that are interesting, and
hopefully ignore the others. What I find odd is that some people
cannot simply ignore the stuff they don't like, especially when it is
clearly labeled.
Some people are paying for bandwidth, Chuckles. Further, ISOT and
various other things often happen to attract, umm, unsavory persons. I
won't argue causation between ISOTs and trolls, but ISOTS are a
certain sort of fanboy wankfest that is unappealing and unseemly from
an intellectual standpoint based on what soc is. While I can learn
from Anthony Mayers's "Ikhwan as-Safa'" or Johnathan Eldenstein's
"Spinoza in Turkey" I cannot learn anything from "ISOT 2002 X to 1492"
save that the author may have some certain prejudices and interests in
redressing certain past greivances, as certain printed material by
certain special authors informs us.

Cheers

L
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-02 21:52:10 UTC
Permalink
Such
delimitations are explicitly required
by the "soc" prefix on this newsgroup.
Noel--Does this mean we can't, or rather shouldn't, use natural
disasters as a POD? I'm confused.

Ivan Hodes
SwimLFS
2003-09-03 01:47:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ivan Hodes
delimitations are explicitly required
by the "soc" prefix on this newsgroup.
Noel--Does this mean we can't, or rather shouldn't, use natural
disasters as a POD? I'm confused.
I'm not Noel, and this question is not addressed to me, so caveat
that.

Based on his definition, depends on the natural disaster. Things that
require the Hand of God or serious Deus Irae action, such as massive
comet strike or other non-human caused interstellar go-gaw, not so
much. They are not perticularly historically instructive, as they all
lead to variations of Noah's Ark, with location, cast, and abilities
being the singular variables.

However, localized weather or broad storm fronts may prove
interesting. We can talk about the impact rain on Agincourt or the
weather patterns that made Dunkirk success, and how those variables
altered the decisions of people on the ground.

Install a massive stormfront over France and the Beleux in a certain
week in June 1940, and we don't get Panzers in Paris, but rather a
static front. Butterfly the temperature in Russia so that it is much
warmer in 1812 or 1940, and the invader does better. Those, I'd
assume, we'd allow, as it would start by asking the question "How
influential was weather in X event?" or "How did X type of weather
change Y's decisions during the Epsilon Campaign?" Most of which
involve a degree of human agency, thus enjoy the soc. heading.
Depending on how far you take it, these could end up in
sci.weather.what-if.

ObWi 1: It's drier when the Duke of Kent goes wandering about in 1820.
He lives to see Victoria to the throne. Effects?

ObWi 2: Heavier snow in the Alps during the winter of 50-49 BC. It
melts, the Rubicon floods. Caesar can't cross the Rubicon. Other than
the obvious linguistic switchage, what's the impact?

Cheers

L
Sydney Webb
2003-09-03 12:52:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ivan Hodes
Such
delimitations are explicitly required
by the "soc" prefix on this newsgroup.
Noel--Does this mean we can't, or rather shouldn't, use natural
disasters as a POD? I'm confused.
Luke's point - that 'soc' is just as important a determinant of what we
should post on s.h.w-i as 'history' and 'what-if' - is a telling one.
Is it one that has been subconsciously informing our TLs up until now?

As always, I see myself as an everyman, or everywoman, of s.h.w-i What
PoDs does Syd use?

Title PoD
===== ===

Another Day at the Office Carthaginians and Celts kick Rome's toga

Restaurants and Criticism Change meeting between two Shwinies goes
horribly wrong

Til We Have Built Jerusalem Theodor Herzl makes New Jersey the target of
the Basel Program

Foundation Pope Anastasius makes his friend Pelagius a
missionary bishop to Ireland

Imagine... John Lennon at 60 Moon-dog John does a Reagan and survives

Civil War WI: No September 6 What the title says
Declaration

JATYWWS Leonardo invents the steam train

Thaxted The Roberts family moves south

WI Darren Cantuar? John Major nominates Gough as ABoC

Nerd WI TI remains a software house

FADBTL Part 3.14159 Hitler drowns as a baby

Letter and Papers from Prison Israel does an Adolf Eichmann on Henry
Kissinger

A Fist Full of Austrians A magic book changes Freddie von Hayek's
Part 5 life

On His Majesty's Most Secret Frederick the Wise drowns as a baby
Service in 1463

Submission (various) No Islam but a Norse counterpart

10 Late Classical PoDs Various but no natural disasters

Zimbabwe WI Leonardo, again

The Trial of Ernst Röhm What the title says

WI Socrates himself is A different Xanthippe
particularly missed?

WI Operation Urgent Omelet? The US Marines liberate the Falklands

Alternate American Geography South America is named 'Brazilasia'

Foucault and Alternative Various, including a magical
History 'crossroads'

Fatimid Industrial Revolution Fatimids exploit coal and iron in Bihar
in Sind

Henry IV Part I Edward the Black Prince lives 5 years
longer and marries again

SHWI - The Opera Operation Sealion is launched

WI SHWI the CCG What the title says

Roman Roads Weather related - one of Claudius'
triremes blown off course

The Allohistoryville Horror Bad men write magical WIs

Inevitable Victory Four separate PoDs see Germany win WWI

Michael V Reigns Longer Michael V is a more cautious reformer

WI Australian AH? Australian posters on s.h.w-i

Condom WI Mechai "Mr Condom" Viravaidya dies
in 1974

A Kaddish for Saul of Tarsus Surfeit

WI Prime Minister Eddie Ward? Eddie elected Deputy PM in 1946

SHWI Peace Prize II: Zionist mullahs
Non-violent Resistance

WI: Rock music combined with Greater US success in Vietnam
strong nationalism?

WI Earlier Fusion? What the title says - Protectionists
and Free-traders come together sooner

Tantalum TL An Australian-led Coltan cartel

WI: Avoiding the Evils and F**d doesn't do a Reagan and survive
Triumphs of the Ford
Administration

WI: ABS? Anyone but Sophronius is chosen as
Patriarch of Jerusalem in 634

WI True Love Waits Arthur does not marry Catherine
of Aragon

WI Kulturkampf? More successful Know Nothings

WI: Borealia Vancouver chosen as Britain's post-AWI
prison colony

Yet Another Sports WI Arko chooses TISM over Tina Turner for
the NSWRL jingle

ATL Intersections of Church England disestablishes the OTC
and State

WI George S Patton Were George S Patton is magically
Alive Today resurrected

Alternative Dog Tax Wars Not what the title says - instead
a different outcome to the DTW of 1898

Alternate Evil Australians Various, involving political choices

A Different Titokowaru's War Völkner not murdered

The Monstrous Regiment of Bunting stays in charge of PM&C
Aussies

Alternative Led Zeppelin Sandy Denny joins the boys

Supercomputing WI Surfeit

For Want of a Helicopter Higher bodycount peace-keeping in Somalia

WI A Different 18th Amendment Socialism entrenched in US constitution

Martian WI Otto I loses at Lech River

Kurosawa's Camera Surfeit

Revisionism Tanner eschews revanchism

PR and Propaganda Edward Bernays dies in a car accident
in 1910

WI Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr What the title says
dies at Balls Bluff?

A Damn' Good Six Inches Macedonians have better weapons

Kristofferson's Rule Kit Columbus brings psychotherapy from
the New World

St Bernard of Clairvaux WI William loses at Hastings

Evil Englishmen WIs Surfeit

Chartism WI Treasure of the GNCTU doesn't abscond
with the funds

WI: The Tax Man Cuban Missile Crisis goes hot

From Geneva With Love As OHMMSS. (But FGWL Part 0 has magical
golems)

Who Won the 30 Year War, Early Imperialist victory
Anyway

WI No Bangorian Controversy? Benjamin Hoadley has a lovely time,
the day he went to Bangor

Turkish WIs Mihail Mouskos marries Glykeria

Foster Family WI John Watson Foster takes a bullet during
the ACW

Nappies, Diapers and Spinola Genoese lose the Battle of Lepanto

Luncheon Vouchers WIs Luncheon vouchers available in the USA

WI Enduring Hittite Boogie? What the title says. (But, and it's a
big but, the post also includes a
'magic wayback machine')

WI No Blood for Figs? Cato eats some bad mushrooms

The Good 42nd President Bush the elder is assassinated in
ambiguous circumstances

The Trial of Aristophanes Aristophanes, rather than Socrates
goes on trial for his life

A Bucket of Warm Spit VPOTUS is the key executive position in
the US Government

WI Different Secular Saints No cult of the astronaut

The Conversion of Hidalgo Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla enters
a monastery

The Empire of Sugar Cane Civilisation develops in the Western
Highlands of New Guinea

Saint Henry VIII Edmund Tudor lives longer

Marty Feldman Marty stays away from the pernicious,
deadly influence that is Hollywood

The other, other King Arthur Catherine Howard gives birth to a son

Enlightenment Isaac Newton's obsession with alchemy
veers towards biochemistry and botany

Democratising the Levellers Cromwell drinks lithium-rich water

Avoiding Louis XIV's Jules Mazarin observes his vows of
Industrial Revolution celibacy

The Passion of Fools, The Descent is launched
the Hope of Moment

Ten PoDs for Nauru Various

No belges frites for Chuck Marx is in Paris for 1848

WI no AI? Surfeit

Baruch Goldwater has different given names

Australian Surrealism Clyde Packer inherits his ee-vul
father's media empire

WI No Death of the Tory Party? Bromley takes charge

Enough Time Must Have Passed Bill Clinton and much of the US Senate
blown up in 1993

Great Renaissance Ladies Various

WI James VI dies early? Surfeit

Vale Lady Mosley Chamberlain stands up to Hitler
at Munich

WI No Deceased Wife's What the title says
Sister Act

The Magic Salad Bowl A magic salad bowl allows time travel

Scorpion and Felix Marx's unpublished novel is

* * * *

That's 101 WIs. Of these, seven have magic or a magical component. And
only one, "Roman Roads" has weather or a natural disaster as a POD.
Overall, the tally seems to be

soc.history.what-ifs 93
sci.meteorology.historical.what-if 1
rec.arts.fantasy.historical.what-ifs 6
And 'The Magic Salad Bowl':
rec.arts.sf.written 1

This gives a 92% rate of WIs that can be classified as
soc.history.what-ifs. And when we consider that one of those 91 is the
novel-length Thaxted ISTM then this might be an OK percentage for the
playful allohistorian.

OTOH, the current interpretation of the Charter, as given in the FAQ,
would allow natural disaster when used with care. But as a highly
conservative Tasmanian, almost Victorian, I have another test: Would I
want my sister living in this timeline? To most natural disaster PoDs,
along with non-Soc PoDs, the answer is often, "No!"

YMMV tender readers.

- Syd
Ebenezer T. Squint
2003-09-03 19:38:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Sydney Webb
As always, I see myself as an everyman, or everywoman, of s.h.w-i
What
Post by Sydney Webb
PoDs does Syd use?
Title PoD
===== ===
<snip some excellent past subject ideas>

I hope the more imaginative and prolific posters were taking notes.
Post by Sydney Webb
But as a highly
conservative Tasmanian, almost Victorian,
No pun intended, eh? :)
Sydney Webb
2003-09-04 12:34:10 UTC
Permalink
<snip>
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
Post by Sydney Webb
But as a highly
conservative Tasmanian, almost Victorian,
No pun intended, eh? :)
Obviously not. Otherwise I, too, would have used a smiley.

* * * *

Ed Stasiak wrote:

<snip>
Post by Ebenezer T. Squint
As Mr. Webb points out down thread, out of 101 threads, 92% of them
can be classified as "traditional" WIs
92% of *my* WIs are proper. That is: soc *and* history *and* what-if.

My assumption is that my posting record is typical. That I am an
'everywoman' whose posting patterns match those of other posters on
s.h.w-i But am I right?

This is where you come in, tender readers. Try this simple quiz - a
self-assessment to answer the question, "Is s.h.w-i on track?"

All you have to do is examine your last 101 WIs. Are at least 92% of
them, that is 93 WIs, purely historical without an element of
time-travel, magic or implausible natural disaster about them? If you,
and most of your fellows, can answer "Yes!" to this question then
s.h.w-i is indeed on track. Well done!

- Syd
Coyu
2003-09-01 18:29:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Well, IMO ISOT is not like I-80. It's more like a twisty mountain road
that locals call the Via Dolorosa, that you're motoring along at 120
kph when you go around the bend and see this *wall* of crucifixes that
mark a two hundred foot drop onto a poultry farm, said wall conveniently
blocking your view of the two on-coming army trucks that are taking up
all possible space on the road ahead.
I'd say ISOTs are more like one of many exits on the s.h.w.i. highway,
where readers are free to take that exit and stop in the rest area to
stretch their legs or drive on to the next exit down the road.
That's nice. ISOT is off-topic -- no history content -- but you compare
it to a rest area.

They're power fantasies with historical dressing, Ed.
The problem is that some people insist on dragging a "Road Closed" sign
across the exit and become upset when other people simply drive around
the sign.
Looks like this thread is another attempt at turning s.h.w.i. into
soc.history.our.treefort.keep.out. "No Grrls or ISOTs Allowed!"
Frankly, shwi could use more grrls. Then, when idiots make stupid
analogies here on shwi, say between rape and chastity belts and
public policy, said idiots would get slapped down hard by said grrls.

Oh, how I look forward to that day.
Post by Coyu
But the vast _vast_ majority of PGLW fiction is going to be
one-handed reading material.
What's "PGLW" fiction?
It's in the part you snipped. I can't help your lack of reading
comprehension.
These Cinamax versions are embarrassing to read, kinda like hearing
your grandparents talking about the day they had sex in the back seat
of their Studebaker... Yuck!
And now we see the level of maturity of a typical ISOT advocate.
Ed Stasiak
2003-09-01 23:00:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
That's nice. ISOT is off-topic
No its not.
Post by Coyu
-- no history content --
Sure there is, after the initial ASB teleportation of the person
or place into the past, its all alternative history from then on.
Post by Coyu
They're power fantasies with historical dressing, Ed.
You're probably right but many people still like 'em.
Coyu
2003-09-02 00:42:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
Post by Coyu
That's nice. ISOT is off-topic
No its not.
Post by Coyu
-- no history content --
Sure there is, after the initial ASB teleportation of the person
or place into the past, its all alternative history from then on.
Since THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TELEPORTATION INTO THE PAST, ISOT
scenarios are NOT HISTORICAL.

HTH.
Post by Ed Stasiak
You're probably right but many people still like 'em.
So?
Gareth Wilson
2003-09-02 08:06:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Since THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS TELEPORTATION INTO THE PAST, ISOT
scenarios are NOT HISTORICAL.
Well, there's no such thing as President Henry Wallace, either, so
presumably that scenario wasn't historical either.
Seriously, alternate history is, at best, another way of looking at
real history. And ISOT scenarios can do the same thing. Look at the
original Island in the Sea of Time and tell me with a straight face
that it doesn't have real historical (or archaeological, or
anthropological) content. Of course some of the content may be
_wrong_, but that's not the same thing. Now, I doing appreciate making
a distinction between "fantasy" and "realistic" changes to history,
but they can both illuminate real history, and they both have a place
on this newsgroup.

Gareth Wilson
http://www.gareth.wilson.name
Robert J. Kolker
2003-09-02 08:50:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Gareth Wilson
a distinction between "fantasy" and "realistic" changes to history,
but they can both illuminate real history, and they both have a place
on this newsgroup.
The classical WI hinges on a human decision. But there are WI-s which
depend on physically possible accidents. For example what if the
asteroid that landed in Tunguska hit a European city. Well, if one
allows physically possible accidents, would that allow ISOT-s. No. Why?
Because ISOT-s are not physically possible.

I am of the opinon that an admissible alternate world should be a
possible world. Worlds in which 1 + 1 do not equal 2 (assuming decimal
notation) cannot exist. So in addition to physical impossibility,
logical impossibliity should disqualify an alternate world. Good bye magic.

Bob Kolker
President Chester A. Arthur
2003-09-02 13:07:48 UTC
Permalink
Subject: Re: Killing a subgenre (was ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.)
Date: 9/2/2003 4:06 AM Eastern Daylight Time
But, Gareth, you're in favor of sterilizing ethnic minorities. Why should
anyone care what you think?


----

"What a shame wood doesn't grow on trees, otherwise you could burn that
for warmth."
-Syd Webb
Charles Talleyrand
2003-09-03 03:51:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
Subject: Re: Killing a subgenre (was ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.)
Date: 9/2/2003 4:06 AM Eastern Daylight Time
But, Gareth, you're in favor of sterilizing ethnic minorities. Why should
anyone care what you think?
Wow. He is! That's an interesting belief.
Phil Edwards
2003-09-04 07:47:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by President Chester A. Arthur
But, Gareth, you're in favor of sterilizing ethnic minorities. Why should
anyone care what you think?
This sums up what's wrong with the current shw-i enforcement style.
Reasoned scepticism and relevant critique: good (productive of debate
and interesting to read). Wilful deafness and character assassination:
bad (productive of flamewars and boring).

Phil
--
Phil Edwards ***@amroth.zetnet.co.uk
"This group is dominated by weird leftist
social studies teacher types." - John Freck
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-02 22:09:28 UTC
Permalink
The bottom line, at least to me, is that these arguments and
flamefests about what the group is about do more to detract from this
group than any amount of fantasy AH.
This is for me the main argument against the anti-ISOT crusaders. I
also disagree about the topicality of ISOTs if not their appeal, but
the main problem is, basically, threads like these: whinging about
ISOTs generates a great deal of noise/heat, and such signal/light as
was generated (i.e. an analysis of what this "AH" business is or is
not) was already posted on group several months ago.
And by the way, there are "grrls" lurking about, besides the known
handful. How to get them to post, I'm not sure, but I'll talk to one
or two I know that read here and ask; I think that, like me, they read
here because there's both entertainment and educational value to be
found (even in the ISoTs, as one poster who'd learned something even
from a thread that was ISoT and a clear power trip)
That'd be me. The most important part is the educative process,
innit? Learning about history and the historical process via the
study of historical alternatives. If an ISOT does this, then it's
good for shwi.

Ivan Hodes
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-03 14:00:54 UTC
Permalink
Now I know one could ask, "Hypothetically what would the effects of
ISOT 1910 Birmingham to 1096 Bruges be regarding the Flemish cloth
industry?" You could then get into a very meaty discussion on, f'rex,
the comparative lack of labor shortage in the middle ages that
obviated any need to mechanize and thus ask how the commercial world
of the time would respond. You could then get into a discussion of
the various cottage industries that grew up in the Middle Ages, and
whether or not there would be enough of a knowledge base in one city
to maybe substantially increase the agricultural yields of western
Europe.
But then, of course, the discussion would eventually reach a point of
increased European prosperity allowing Crusaders to kick major ass and
we would be right back were we started.
--Except we wouldn't, because we would have learned something in the
process! Which is, again, the point.
But I think everyone has gotten the "Ivan likes learning" point by
now, so my continuing to argue the metas of ISOT is only contributing
to the noise. I would ever so like these kinds of discussions, which
as I said are worse than actual ISOTs, to stop, so I'll just put in
one final plea for the anti-ISOTers (with whom, as I hope I make
clear, I generally sympathize WRT the value of most (but, crucially,
not all) ISOTs) to, if you'll pardon the language, sack up and deal
with the fact that ISOTs are on topic.

Ivan Hodes
Phil Edwards
2003-09-03 21:14:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ivan Hodes
I would ever so like these kinds of discussions, which
as I said are worse than actual ISOTs, to stop, so I'll just put in
one final plea for the anti-ISOTers (with whom, as I hope I make
clear, I generally sympathize WRT the value of most (but, crucially,
not all) ISOTs) to, if you'll pardon the language, sack up and deal
with the fact that ISOTs are on topic.
Strong disagreement here, both on whether ISOTs are on-topic and,
perhaps more importantly, on whether metathreads are noise. Way over
on alt.folklore.urban, a single off-topic post will generally be met
with three or four slappings-down, which may have no afu-relevant
material between the lot of them. If the OT poster defends his or her
conduct, all bets are off; metathreads about what is and isn't
off-topic can attract ten or fifteen different posters and flourish
for days on end, even if there's only one person on the, er,
controversial side of the argument. I don't think this is a bad thing
in itself - it fosters a sense of group community and collective
responsibility for the group's mores, as well as keeping the said
mores from degenerating into dogma. It certainly isn't worse than
letting OT posts go unchallenged.

Phil
--
Phil Edwards ***@amroth.zetnet.co.uk
"This group is dominated by weird leftist
social studies teacher types." - John Freck
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-04 03:29:03 UTC
Permalink
An intelligent response calls for an attempt at similar action on my
part, I suppose.
Post by Phil Edwards
Strong disagreement here, both on whether ISOTs are on-topic
I'm not sure why this is subjective--we the community discussed it,
came to the consensus that it was not, and now it's in the FAQ.
Obviously the dissidents are free to disagree, but ISTM that publicly
airing that disagreement (repeatedly) does more harm than good.
Post by Phil Edwards
and perhaps more importantly, on whether metathreads are noise.
Def. more important, but I never said metathreads are noise--just that
this particular subject is noise, because all it is (the topicality
bit) is rehashing old arguments that have already been, well,
defeated, in the democratic-marketplace-of-ideas kind of sense. (But
now we're onto meta-metathreads, right?)

[snip]
Post by Phil Edwards
It certainly isn't worse than
letting OT posts go unchallenged.
And now we come back to the crux of the whole thing, which is, ISOTS,
on-topic or not. The FAQ sez they are, and the FAQ is a document
forged by group consensus. So they're on topic. That's the last I"ll
say about topicality, but the meta-meta stuff is kind of neat.

Ivan Hodes
Phil Edwards
2003-09-04 07:51:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ivan Hodes
And now we come back to the crux of the whole thing, which is, ISOTS,
on-topic or not. The FAQ sez they are, and the FAQ is a document
forged by group consensus. So they're on topic.
Doesn't the FAQ say "well, OK, strictly speaking they're on-topic, but
they're a bit borderline and lots of people don't like them"? Which
isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

Perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate.

Phil
--
Phil Edwards ***@amroth.zetnet.co.uk
"This group is dominated by weird leftist
social studies teacher types." - John Freck
Ivan Hodes
2003-09-04 14:52:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Edwards
Post by Ivan Hodes
And now we come back to the crux of the whole thing, which is, ISOTS,
on-topic or not. The FAQ sez they are, and the FAQ is a document
forged by group consensus. So they're on topic.
Doesn't the FAQ say "well, OK, strictly speaking they're on-topic, but
they're a bit borderline and lots of people don't like them"? Which
isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.
Perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate.
But that's the thing...we already had this debate, a few months ago.
The current FAQ stance towards ISOTs is the result of that debate.
Why keep debating? Why not talk about alternate history instead?

Ivan Hodes
Mike Miller
2003-09-04 18:55:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Edwards
Perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate.
We had a FAQ Amendment debate. Now you stick an "ISOT" tag on ISOT WIs
so people who dislike ISOTs can avoid them. It seemed like a simple,
polite compromise to the matter. Why rehash all the old arguments
again when the FAQ and charter have already been amended to deal with
them?
Phil Edwards
2003-09-04 22:31:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Miller
Post by Phil Edwards
Perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate.
We had a FAQ Amendment debate. Now you stick an "ISOT" tag on ISOT WIs
so people who dislike ISOTs can avoid them. It seemed like a simple,
polite compromise to the matter. Why rehash all the old arguments
again when the FAQ and charter have already been amended to deal with them?
Looks like some people aren't happy with the compromise solution. The
question then is what people who aren't happy with an agreed solution
should do. I think we can agree that jumping up and down and saying
Waah is not ideal, but I'm not sure that shutting up and putting up
with it is that much better. Posting messages along the lines of
"actually, you know, I'm not sure we got the right compromise
solution, my reasons being a., b. and c." seems reasonable to me.

P "perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate (again)" E
--
Phil Edwards ***@amroth.zetnet.co.uk
"This group is dominated by weird leftist
social studies teacher types." - John Freck
Sydney Webb
2003-09-05 04:10:59 UTC
Permalink
kamil wrote:

<snip>
How about we schedual a debate on changes to FAQ every 6 months, not
after every ISOT post, and get back to posting ontopic ISOT or not.
Good call, Kamil. To give people time to prepare, let's schedule our
first semi-annual outbreak of free speech, say, a week from now.

* * * *

Having said that, I must maintain the right of my tender readers to
criticise my individual posts for whatever reason even, and I must
stress this, even if it is one of my Magic Salad Bowl posts.

Take f'rex, _Englightenment, Part V - Let Sense Be Dumb_. Enlightenment
wasn't a Magic Salad Bowl. And a handful of readers said some nice
things about that episode and the series as a whole. OTOH Part V
attracted considerable criticism and deservedly so. In order to explore
an AmRev without the intervention of the Heroic French Allies of OTL, an
Understanding between the aforementioned French and Perfidious Albion
was posited. Also, a French National Church was hurriedly arm-waved
without having dug deep enough foundations to support such a baroque
edifice. The more learnèd of my tender readers pointed out the
historical implausibility of both the Understanding and the Church. As
they should have.

So, if my readers may critique the plausibility of my proper WIs, on an
episode by episode basis, why should they not be allowed to critique my
Bowl-fic on the same basis?

ObSong: _Alternative History_ by Rigid Small Digits and Chris Williams

- Syd "inflatable egg-cup" Webb
Ed Stasiak
2003-09-05 04:35:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Phil Edwards
Post by Mike Miller
We had a FAQ Amendment debate. Now you stick an "ISOT" tag on ISOT WIs
so people who dislike ISOTs can avoid them. It seemed like a simple,
polite compromise to the matter. Why rehash all the old arguments again
when the FAQ and charter have already been amended to deal with them?
Looks like some people aren't happy with the compromise solution. The
question then is what people who aren't happy with an agreed solution
should do.
IMO, those people should go back to writing What Ifs (ISOT
threads are not preventing them from doing that) and quit
raining on other peoples parades.
Post by Phil Edwards
I think we can agree that jumping up and down and saying
Waah is not ideal, but I'm not sure that shutting up and
putting up with it is that much better.
S.H.W.I. FAQ:
"Since soc.history.what-if is an unmoderated newsgroup, there are no
enforceable rules. There is no official style guide. On the other hand,
we aspire to, and have often achieved, a high level of netiquette."
Post by Phil Edwards
P "perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate (again)" E
Constantly bitching and moaning about ISOT threads (that no one
is forcing them to read!) and disrupting the group with Reichstag
Fire tactics in the process, is hardly a "high level of netiquette".

Why should this behavior be rewarded?
Coyu
2003-09-05 04:43:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
Why should this behavior be rewarded?
I'm not rewarding you, Ed.
Kittykat
2003-09-08 23:49:06 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 04 Sep 2003 23:31:09 +0100, Phil Edwards
Post by Phil Edwards
Looks like some people aren't happy with the compromise solution. The
question then is what people who aren't happy with an agreed solution
should do. I think we can agree that jumping up and down and saying
Waah is not ideal, but I'm not sure that shutting up and putting up
with it is that much better. Posting messages along the lines of
"actually, you know, I'm not sure we got the right compromise
solution, my reasons being a., b. and c." seems reasonable to me.
Part of the problem may be the longtime readers and occasional posters
(like me) who aren't always willing to weigh in on the debate every
time it comes up like the five or six(teen) people who post a lot and
are vocal about getting rid of the things, but who in times of such
debate are willing to weigh in by saying, "I've been reading this
group for several years now (almost four, in my case, so yes, I'm a
junior reader), and I like some of the magic scenarios and would
prefer that they remain on-topic here unless there's really enough of
them and they're enough nuisance to start a new newsgroup for the
magic-type what-ifs."
Post by Phil Edwards
P "perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate (again)" E
Has that much changed since July? Really?
--
KittyKat (Jack V.)
Current reading: _The Victorious Opposition_, H. Turtledove
crkrjack at earthling dot net
Sweet and soft of voice
Pure in soul and kind of heart
The Lady called Jack
Robert-Joseph Frey
Noel
2003-09-04 23:55:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Miller
Post by Phil Edwards
Perhaps we should be having a FAQ Amendment Debate.
We had a FAQ Amendment debate. Now you stick an "ISOT" tag on ISOT WIs
so people who dislike ISOTs can avoid them. It seemed like a simple,
polite compromise to the matter. Why rehash all the old arguments
again when the FAQ and charter have already been amended to deal with
them?
---My hypothesis is that it was the sudden plague
of magic box scenarios, a heretofore unheard of
metastasis of the ISOT. Suddenly, allowing ISOTs
no longer seemed quite so benign.

Best,

Noel
Coyu
2003-09-05 04:41:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Noel
---My hypothesis is that it was the sudden plague
of magic box scenarios, a heretofore unheard of
metastasis of the ISOT. Suddenly, allowing ISOTs
no longer seemed quite so benign.
You got it.

What, "Whut if I had a Magic Pin" wasn't warning enough for y'all?
Graham
2003-09-04 23:11:14 UTC
Permalink
I agree that certain Meta- level discussions often quickly degenerate
into shouting matches, but I will have to cast my vote with Carlos on
this one (though probably not with his unnecessarily graphic imagery).
ISOT's are, and I know that there are honorable exeptions, by and
large power fantasies. The nature of the beast is that when you posit
folks with 20th/21st c. tech going back in time, the result is almost
always "Woo! Conquer the world!"
How about 'the other side of the coin' - countries from
the past coming forward in time? I think Dave Knudson
had an idea about the 1942 US coming to 2002 in his
'USA 2002 in 1942' thread. I would submit that the
'conquer the world' objections do not apply here.
Christopher Fardell
2003-09-02 08:56:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by Ed Stasiak
Sure there is, after the initial ASB teleportation of the person
or place into the past, its all alternative history from then on.
ASB-s are invoked to bypass physical laws. Essentially they are -magic-
creature that do the impossible.
It provides a reason for the alternate history to occur,
Post by Ed Stasiak
Post by Coyu
They're power fantasies with historical dressing, Ed.
You're probably right but many people still like 'em.
It is still science fiction.
It is both Alternate History and Science Fiction
Bob Kolekr
From Chris
Melek Taus
2003-09-02 19:27:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Coyu
Post by Coyu
Well, IMO ISOT is not like I-80. It's more like a twisty mountain road
that locals call the Via Dolorosa, that you're motoring along at 120
kph when you go around the bend and see this *wall* of crucifixes that
mark a two hundred foot drop onto a poultry farm, said wall conveniently
blocking your view of the two on-coming army trucks that are taking up
all possible space on the road ahead.
I'd say ISOTs are more like one of many exits on the s.h.w.i. highway,
where readers are free to take that exit and stop in the rest area to
stretch their legs or drive on to the next exit down the road.
That's nice. ISOT is off-topic -- no history content -- but you compare
it to a rest area.
They're power fantasies with historical dressing, Ed.
This must be the only thing I agree with Coyu about. ISOTs take away from
enjoying the NG. They are OK in moderation, but painful in excess! I would
be for a temporary ban on ISOTs. As far as a permanent ban, though, that is
something I would be hesitant about advocating ; the NG is cluttered with
too many self-styled Reichsfuhrers who want to put entire topics and genres
out of debate. This is a symptom of how SHWI is choking from a lack of new
blood. It is becoming as incestuous and closed off as European aristocracy.
Post by Coyu
The problem is that some people insist on dragging a "Road Closed" sign
across the exit and become upset when other people simply drive around
the sign.
Looks like this thread is another attempt at turning s.h.w.i. into
soc.history.our.treefort.keep.out. "No Grrls or ISOTs Allowed!"
Frankly, shwi could use more grrls. Then, when idiots make stupid
analogies here on shwi, say between rape and chastity belts and
public policy, said idiots would get slapped down hard by said grrls.
Be careful of asking for something - you might get it! An infusion of new
posters on SHWI - which are needed, of any gender - would undermine the
authority of those who style themselves the Reichsfuhrers of SHWI. They
would bring in new topics and discussions that would sweep away the narrow
minded totalitarians' power.
Post by Coyu
Oh, how I look forward to that day.
I look forward to that day too - but for different reasons...
President Chester A. Arthur
2003-09-02 20:03:32 UTC
Permalink
Subject: Re: Killing a subgenre (was ISOT Newfoundland to 1000 A.D.)
Date: 9/2/2003 3:27 PM Eastern Daylight Time
the NG is cluttered with
too many self-styled Reichsfuhrers who want to put entire topics and genres
out of debate.
Yes, you've caught me! I want to do away with ISOTs because I want to kill the
Jews! How perfectly on point.



----

"What a shame wood doesn't grow on trees, otherwise you could burn that
for warmth."
-Syd Webb
Coyu
2003-09-04 17:35:20 UTC
Permalink
Very funny game
too, but those of you who found Coyu's Clancy slash offensive probably
wouldn't like EtU either... (damn funny post, Coyu!)
[shuffles feet] Oh, gawrsh. I thought no one had noticed.

It's almost a legitimate what-if -- 'hard' tech fiction writers
characterize men the way Steverino characterizes women -- but I'm
blessed if I can think of a plausible PoD. I am thinking possibly
something involving T.E. Lawrence or Lyautey.
Noel
2003-09-06 16:21:59 UTC
Permalink
WI Japan never colonized Taiwan, and it
fell into German hands?
So. Germany gets an advanced colony! The first thing
they do, after shooting the nascent Republicans, is
to build breweries.
---Hmmmm.
OK, after that. Here the domestic political economy
gets a bit tricky. OTL Taiwan got turned into the
Japanese sugar island. But Germany grows beets. They
also used Taiwanese hydroelectric power to produce
aluminum, but demand was still limited before the
development of duraluminum... and World War One is
on the horizon.
---Don't forget rice; bigger even than sugar by
value, I believe.

Taiwan was just astounding, as colonies go.
Japanese subsidies to the local government
ceased in 1904; by 1922 it was sending tax
revenue _back_ to Tokyo. (Mississippi, take
note.) Massive trade surplusses. Real con-
sumption per person on the island rose 20
percent in 1910-40; real GDP per person
rose 55 percent. The place was financing
_Japan_.

But lest one think the place was squeezed
dry, note that over half of all Taiwanese
made it out of primary school by 1940.
Admitted, Japan itself hit this level in
_1891_, but Mexico didn't manage to get
half of primary-school-age children
_enrolled_ until 1960, let alone
graduated.
So I am a little at a loss on what they would do to
sponsor industries. They'd put Taiwan (they would
probably call it Formosa) under German colonial law,
which looking at its aftermath OTL does not seem
especially conducive to commercial development or
even coherent land claims.
---Hmmm. OTL, Japanese owned about a quarter
of Taiwan's land, and these claims were very
well defined.
Let's assume that the less bad option happens in
Taiwan. The Germans will have razed the old
Chinese clan structure, and the British won't be
amused by the crop of collaborators. (I could
make a case for the other direction too.)
---Or the Australians. OTOH, Taiwan is pretty
far away from Oz.
Now what? Sugar, tea, probably an attempt at
cheap cotton textiles; kind of a backwater.
Then comes 1941.
Noel, I don't think this is going to turn out much
like OTL Taiwan at all.
---It's interesting. How much of comparative
advantage is created and how much just happens?

Famous Taiwanese beer? All the rage in Oz and
Hawaii. Schmatta and shoes. Shiny wealthy cities;
rural poverty like ... uh ... Malaysia.

By the time 1945 comes along, and it's time
for Taiwan to join in the huge wave of econo-
mic growth that's about to happen, the island's
"comparative advantage" might look very very
different.

No, it won't be very much like OTL Taiwan at
all, although it might manage to become just
as rich by the end of the 20th century.

ObWI (admittedly a long shot): American Taiwan.

Best,

Noel
Ernest Cline
2003-09-07 00:35:05 UTC
Permalink
Clearly, A pre-Great War German Taiwan means that it will become a League of
Nations mandate after the war. Is there any chance for a Portugese mandate
of Formosa? It would be fitting since they gave it that name to let them
actually rule it for a spell. If so, is Portugal drawn into WW2 as a
result, or do the Japanese leave it alone as they did Macao in OTL?
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