I got another royal last night, Paul.

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters. Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't. It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the night.

It doesn't sound disturbing to me. It sounds like a normal session. Congrats on hitting the royal. I read once that the secret to getting a lot of royals is to play a lot of freakin' hands of vp... I paraphrase.

C

risky biz

2021-11-09 00:47:49 UTC

~ It doesn't sound disturbing to me. It sounds like a normal session. Congrats on hitting the royal. I read once that the secret to getting a lot of royals is to play a lot of freakin' hands of vp... I paraphrase.

Four quads in 15-20 minutes is a normal session? You must be banking tons. The closest I ever came before was quads an average of every 13 minutes on Super Triple Play/Super Double Double in one session. Two years ago, or so. I think that was about a 3 hour session. I still lost a little.

Yeah- lots of hand = lots of royals. The key is whether the lots of losing hands are offset enough by the royals to book a profit.

C Mayhem

2021-11-10 21:36:49 UTC

Four quads in 15-20 minutes is a normal session? You must be banking tons. The closest I ever came before was quads an average of every 13 minutes on Super Triple Play/Super Double Double in one session. Two years ago, or so. I think that was about a 3 hour session. I still lost a little.
Yeah- lots of hand = lots of royals. The key is whether the lots of losing hands are offset enough by the royals to book a profit.

4 quads in 15 minutes is lucky, but luck is normal. I'm sure it's happened to me a bunch of times. I remember reading a bit about randomness in coin flips. If you don't see a bunch of head or tail streaks, and some really long ones, the flips probably aren't random.

C

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 04:54:00 UTC

Post by risky biz
Four quads in 15-20 minutes is a normal session? You must be banking tons. The closest I ever came before was quads an average of every 13 minutes on Super Triple Play/Super Double Double in one session. Two years ago, or so. I think that was about a 3 hour session. I still lost a little.
Yeah- lots of hand = lots of royals. The key is whether the lots of losing hands are offset enough by the royals to book a profit.

Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.

risky biz

2021-11-11 11:04:19 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.

Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?

I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 17:17:02 UTC

Post by risky biz
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?

No, but I question whether our country will be a totalitarian style dictatorship within the next five years.

BTSinAustin

2021-11-11 20:08:26 UTC

Post by risky biz
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?

~ No, but I question whether our country will be a totalitarian style dictatorship within the next five years.
Coin flip.

Agree, plus the other coin flip on which side will be the one rounding up the dissenters.

It will be interesting to watch Australia and how willing their bureaucrats will be to relinquish the new dictatorial powers after the pandemic is over.

Dutch

2021-11-11 23:32:37 UTC

Post by risky biz
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?

No, but I question whether our country will be a totalitarian style dictatorship within the next five years.

The Jan 6 committee can prevent it from happening if the DOJ doesn't
drop the ball and allow witnesses to ignore subpoenas and the courts
allow them to slow-roll the investigation. Or Donald Trump could drop
dead, that would solve the problem.

I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

BillB

2021-11-11 23:41:15 UTC

Post by Dutch
Or Donald Trump could drop
dead, that would solve the problem.

I have a feeling he's getting pretty close to his last bucket of KFC.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 00:07:52 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

Dutch

2021-11-12 03:01:21 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-12 03:07:40 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It
is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much
hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

You are talking about one man from that party, as opposed to an entire party
that wants to control everything. Idiot.

Dutch

2021-11-12 03:27:05 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It
is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much
hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

You are talking about one man from that party, as opposed to an entire party
that wants to control everything. Idiot.

Every political party wants to control everything, that's why they fight
to win elections and by as much as possible. One man controlling
everything IS the problem, it's called Authoritarianism. <sigh> moron
</sigh>

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 04:59:54 UTC

Post by Dutch
Every political party wants to control everything, that's why they fight
to win elections and by as much as possible. One man controlling
everything IS the problem, it's called Authoritarianism. <sigh> moron
</sigh>

The Clintons and the Bushes were never opposing entities. It's always been one big act. They are together, part of one been plan to usher in world government. They are on the same team. Column A, and Column B. You'll never see it.

BillB

2021-11-12 05:12:39 UTC

That's the thing about paranoid delusions and hallucinations, nobody else can ever see them but you. But I think there is medication these days. You should talk to your doctor. Tell her what you just told us in your last couple of posts. You aren't allergic to rubber, are you?

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 04:53:43 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

I'm not talking about a party, or one man ruler. They are working for world government by an elite, an oligarchy, globalists. It will be THE STATE. Nobody is going to be "emperor of America". Nobody is going to be emperor of anything. All your life you have been trained to look at opposing groups. Like I said, a FAKE left-right paradigm. And there's no hope that you will ever figure it out. You're too old, and you're too stupid. They don't even try to hide it now, they talk openly about it, like Klaus Schwab and the New Reset. Why bother to try to hide it when most people are blind like you and can't see what's right in front of them.

Dutch

2021-11-12 06:41:23 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

Or, you believe some crazy bullshit.

BTSinAustin

2021-11-12 15:34:28 UTC

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

Or, you believe some crazy bullshit.

Irony meter overload.

Dutch

2021-11-12 22:36:38 UTC

Post by BTSinAustin

Post by Dutch
I know.. you meant the Democrats, but there is no authoritarian leader
among their ranks that I have seen.

No, you don't know. I did not mean the democrats. There is no "leader". It is a group. You cannot see beyond the fake right-left paradigm. Not much hope for you.

I wasn't talking about the right-left paradigm, I was referring to a man
who controls one party and will do anything to be Emperor of America.

Or, you believe some crazy bullshit.

Irony meter overload.

What crazy bullshit do I believe? Please elaborate, and don't make stuff up.

Tim Norfolk

2021-11-12 02:20:25 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 05:02:52 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.
Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

Risky, for once, you should listen to Tim. But just this once. lol

risky biz

2021-11-12 07:55:09 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

~ Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

Post by Tim Norfolk
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

In Paul's 1600 hands, then, he exceeded probability by 50%. Is that right?

How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?

Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 09:03:29 UTC

Post by risky biz
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?
Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

lol omg you got massacred if you played Double Bonus with no quads. It's an UGLY game. An ugly ugly game. Brutal. The thing is, tho, in Vegas, in the old days, DB was the game to play, if it was 10-7. In fact, before your time, Risky, Double Bonus on Bally Game Makers paid 400 for a SF instead of 250, so its return was even better, 100.52% instead of 100.17%. Plus, back then they were giving benefits. Now they don't give squat. The last time I played that game was at the Riviera. They had these old Ballys for years. It was a great play, plus I think they had a promo for new players, so it was even better. Oh man, video poker used to be juicy.

risky biz

2021-11-13 17:48:06 UTC

~ lol omg you got massacred if you played Double Bonus with no quads. It's an UGLY game. An ugly ugly game. Brutal.

I wouldn't call it a massacre. About 5,000 hands and I lost $1,000 playing single hand at a 25c denomination. That's 4,000 credits in 5,000 hands. I don't think that's a very large drawdown in such a high variation game.

I'll put it this way- I paid $1,000 to find out that I'll get fewer 4-of-a-kinds in Double Bonus than I'll get in Bonus Poker.

I think all the VP games are designed to return very close to the same percentage to the house on a monthly basis and the only real difference between one VP game and another is the variation.

On a related subject: a stereotypical hand shows up repeatedly in Bonus Poker. It's a 4-to-an-outside straight with a discard card. Why is the discard so often a 4? And it never fills to a straight. Like, NEVER. I'm going to begin keeping records on it. Every time it comes up I think, 'There it is again.' I'm going to start discarding all five cards to see what happens but I expect there will be no difference and that it's programmed for a loser hand.

I'm going to start keeping records on busted flush draws, too. And why does a flush draw show up so often as the next hand after a straight draw?

~ The thing is, tho, in Vegas, in the old days, DB was the game to play, if it was 10-7. In fact, before your time, Risky, Double Bonus on Bally Game Makers paid 400 for a SF instead of 250, so its return was even better, 100.52% instead of 100.17%. Plus, back then they were giving benefits. Now they don't give squat. The last time I played that game was at the Riviera. They had these old Ballys for years. It was a great play, plus I think they had a promo for new players, so it was even better. Oh man, video poker used to be juicy.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-13 18:41:13 UTC

Post by risky biz
I wouldn't call it a massacre. About 5,000 hands and I lost $1,000 playing single hand at a 25c denomination. That's 4,000 credits in 5,000 hands. I don't think that's a very large drawdown in such a high variation game.
I'll put it this way- I paid $1,000 to find out that I'll get fewer 4-of-a-kinds in Double Bonus than I'll get in Bonus Poker.
I think all the VP games are designed to return very close to the same percentage to the house on a monthly basis and the only real difference between one VP game and another is the variation.
On a related subject: a stereotypical hand shows up repeatedly in Bonus Poker. It's a 4-to-an-outside straight with a discard card. Why is the discard so often a 4? And it never fills to a straight. Like, NEVER. I'm going to begin keeping records on it. Every time it comes up I think, 'There it is again.' I'm going to start discarding all five cards to see what happens but I expect there will be no difference and that it's programmed for a loser hand.
I'm going to start keeping records on busted flush draws, too. And why does a flush draw show up so often as the next hand after a straight draw?

You had a bad session. Shit happens. Double Bonus is NOT a high variance game. Variance = 27. Triple Double Bonus, now THAT is high variance, variance = 97. And you do not get less quads in DB than you do in Bonus. Like Tim said, it's about the same. You lost 4000 coins, that's a royal. Like I said, you got massacred. Shit, happens. The main thing that makes it SEEM so bad is that you get one coin for two pair, unlike Bonus where you get two coins. Btw, variance for Bonus Poker is 19, just like 9-6 JoB. Double Double is 44. DW is 27. JW2p is 32.

You are wasting your time with all the worries in the last part of your post. If you want something to do with your time, learn all the fine points with software and study them. Otherwise, don't bother with video poker. Not trying to hurt your feelings, but I'm just telling you how it is.

Btw, it's mid-November, and I am about $2000 or a little less in the red for 2021 so far. I didn't play as much as usual, because of covid. It's been a long time since I had a losing year. I mentioned that I did not get any stimulus checks. That's because I won so much from video poker in 2019 that I did not qualify for stimulus check. Over qualified.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 09:17:09 UTC

Post by risky biz
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?

Last week, I played maybe five hours in two days, got one quad. And yes, I lost my ass. I'm still looking for it. I asked Security to check Lost & Found, but there was no ass there.

But forget about bad luck stories. Back in maybe 2015 or so I was up in the hills at a really nice Indian joint, stayed the night. I was playing Bonus Poker, got TWO STRAIGHT FLUSHES back-to-back. How's that? Probably never happen again in my life if I live to be 100.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 20:01:08 UTC

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

I don't know how to figure it, but I'm sure I could figure it out how often you get quads in DB. It's a weird game. I can say this. You break pairs to draw to open-ended straights, and you break two pair Aces-up to draw three to Aces. Straights pay 5 coins instead of the usual 4, and Quad Aces pays 800 instead of 125.

Tim Norfolk

2021-11-13 02:29:09 UTC

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

I doubt that those change the 1 in 423 very much.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-13 09:51:11 UTC

Post by Tim Norfolk
I doubt that those change the 1 in 423 very much.

I'm sure you're right. Thanks.

Tim Norfolk

2021-11-14 03:50:10 UTC

Post by Tim Norfolk
I doubt that those change the 1 in 423 very much.

I'm sure you're right. Thanks.

I ran the numbers on the Aces up example.

You will be dealt Aces up 19,008 out of 2,598,960 deals.

If you draw 3 cards to the Aces, you will hit quads 45 times out of 16,215 possible draws.

That comes to a probability of approximately 0.0000203

risky biz

2021-11-13 17:09:24 UTC

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

~ I doubt that those change the 1 in 423 very much.

Setting aside the calculations and the terminology, and what would be expected to happen based on a random deal, how much Double Bonus have you played?

risky biz

2021-11-13 17:12:15 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

~ Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

Post by Tim Norfolk
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

In Paul's 1600 hands, then, he exceeded probability by 50%. Is that right?
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?
Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

No, it is not correct. He exceeded the expectation by 50%. I did the probability calculation for you.

~ The hint should make no difference

The hint is all the difference. It isn't a math question, it's a gambling question. You think that's the same thing but it isn't.

, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.

How many hands per hour?

risky biz

2021-11-13 17:14:26 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

~ Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

Post by Tim Norfolk
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

In Paul's 1600 hands, then, he exceeded probability by 50%. Is that right?
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?
Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

~ No, it is not correct. He exceeded the expectation by 50%. I did the probability calculation for you.

Is 50% an insignificant difference?

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-13 17:40:38 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

~ Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

Post by Tim Norfolk
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

In Paul's 1600 hands, then, he exceeded probability by 50%. Is that right?
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?
Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

~ No, it is not correct. He exceeded the expectation by 50%. I did the probability calculation for you.
Is 50% an insignificant difference?

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

I watched a little old lady win a car/truck last night. She was so happy.

risky biz

2021-11-13 18:01:26 UTC

~ Just got home. I only played an hour. Put in $8400 coin-in. That's blazing. I didn't know I could play that fast but the numbers speak for themselves. I made 6 sets of quads. Plenty of full houses, and still only profit $200. And that came from the free play. I thought I only play 800 to 1000 hands per hour, but 8400 coin-in is over 1600 hands per hour. Like I said, I was blazing. But it's a new machine, bartop, and I don't fuck around.
Six quads in 1,600 hands doesn't cause you to question if it's a random deal?
I was at the casino, too, and, curiously I also got 6 quads, if I remember them correctly. One was dealt 7s. That was on two different machines. Not sure how long I played the VP machines, I was doing other things, too. But it was definitely longer than 1 hour and nowhere near 1,600 hands per hour. In fact, I think I was playing slower than usual. I may have played about the same number of hands as you.

You get quads in video poker about 1 in 423 hands.

~ Playing 1600 such hands and getting quads 6 times has a probability of (1600 choose 6)*(1/423)^6*(422/423)^1594, which is approximately 0.0926

Post by Tim Norfolk
So, it should happen a little over 9% of the time.

In Paul's 1600 hands, then, he exceeded probability by 50%. Is that right?
How about one session I played for 9 hours straight (first and last time ever). I never hit a single quad. What is the probability of that?
Hint for consideration: it was Double Bonus. That pays more on 4-of-a-kind.

~ No, it is not correct. He exceeded the expectation by 50%. I did the probability calculation for you.
Is 50% an insignificant difference?

The hint should make no difference, unless it significantly changes the strategy in the cases in which you might get quads.
How many hands per hour?

~ I watched a little old lady win a car/truck last night. She was so happy.

I've been called for the different drawings 5 times, I think, in the last 4 months in one of the casinos. I qualified for the final car drawing in one series (base model Ford Bronco) but didn't make the final 10 elimination. I would have taken the $25,000 cash. The car is about $28,000 but you have to pay sales tax in addition to the tax on the win. And I didn't want the Bronco anyway. I think the winner took the cash. At this casino, you are actually given the car. At Station Casinos, they buy you a 2-year lease.

risky biz

2021-11-12 07:55:19 UTC

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-12 09:08:36 UTC

Post by risky biz
What game?

Jacks-or-Better. That's the only game I can play that fast. The strategy is burned into my brain. I don't make mistakes either. And on the new bartops, I play the screen, not the buttons. People always tell me I'm making a mistake not learning how to play the buttons fast. Wtf, 1600 hph ain't too shabby. I do alright without all the advise from the know-it-alls.

Grunty

2021-11-09 13:14:54 UTC

...

No reply so far... A deafening silence.

BTSinAustin

2021-11-09 17:04:58 UTC

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Bill Vanek

2021-11-09 17:48:45 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Some machines are configured to shuffle and deal normal decks of cards, and
others are just slots. On the ones that deal from decks, the odds of being
dealt a royal are the same. One the slots versions, it’s however they’re
programmed. After the deal, though, things change because you don’t play a
machine the same as you’d play a hand in a poker game. So the overall odds
change considerably between playing every hand to draw to a royal, and
playing optimum strategy for the machine.

BTSinAustin

2021-11-09 17:59:38 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Thanks, that makes perfect sense. I've always wondered, the first cruise I ever went on was a tiny ship, 400ish passengers. The first night out a newlywed couple won something like 4 grand on a Royal. That got a lot of business for the casino since everyone heard about it.

Splashie

2021-11-09 18:52:43 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

I've got to think that's really common - people winning a jackpot on the first night of the cruise - for the exact reason you mentioned.

Michael

VegasJerry

2021-11-09 21:19:45 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

He’s right. Slots are different. They payoff for a poker hand is decided before
The cards are delt.

My son’s wife was offered a job with the Gaming Commission (she’s a CPA). The
stipulations was; you cannot gamble. She likes going out on the town and decided
to take a different State job, traveling to other states for Tax Collection.
There, she learned the shared rules for the casinos.

When you pull the handle on a slot machine, the win/lose and payoff is decided as
the wheels spin; or as the cards are being delt.

PAYOFF.

I wrote a Blackjack software program, (published in Commodore Power Play
Magazine, January 1985). Exact cards and perfect deal. Even the payoff
was correct, but it doesn’t have a problem with odds because you’ve won
or lost. Double or nothing. (i.e. Split & Blackjack of course, are different)

But, as Vanek says, “Slot versions are programed.” When you pull the handle
the payoff is decided before the wheels stop (or cards are delt). I wrote a
KENO program and used the same ‘procedure’ as the machine makers.

Graphically (if I can do this after a few glasses of wine), consider two columns
of numbers from 1 (at the bottom) and 100 at the top. Next to it another column
that’s the same.

Have your computer random a number between 0 and 100. That’s “N.”
Now random another number between 0 and N. There is your payoff.

I’ll not printout two columns of numbers here, (not while drinking), but keep them in
Your head. Obviously, the odds of hitting any number between 0 and 100 are even in
the first column. But trying to hit 100 in the Second column, isn’t, because you
were “Between 0 and N.

To hit 100 in the second column required a 1:100 chance of hitting 100. 1:100
to this the second 100 after hitting 1:100 in the first.

(At this point it’s obvious only Democrats can understand the odds of all this;
hitting the second 100).

So the payoffs are predicated on this increasing odds. 100/100 being the best.
So the slot machine decides what your payoff is, and selects the Bars, or Cards
that match that payoff.

In my KENO payoffs, I was generous because it was a home game (out of a
magazine) and the real KENO is the worst odd in Las Vegas.

risky biz

2021-11-09 23:12:44 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

~ Some machines are configured to shuffle and deal normal decks of cards, and

Post by Bill Vanek
others are just slots.

And which are the typical IGT Game King machines in your opinion?

On the ones that deal from decks, the odds of being

Post by Bill Vanek
dealt a royal are the same. One the slots versions, it’s however they’re
programmed. After the deal, though, things change because you don’t play a
machine the same as you’d play a hand in a poker game. So the overall odds
change considerably between playing every hand to draw to a royal, and
playing optimum strategy for the machine.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-09 23:18:22 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Some machines are configured to shuffle and deal normal decks of cards, and
others are just slots.

And which are the typical IGT Game King machines in your opinion?

NV law dictates decks of cards, unless they changed it. I have no idea which
states still allow slots type machines.

Post by risky biz
On the ones that deal from decks, the odds of being

Splashie

2021-11-09 23:24:09 UTC

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Interesting. Would you say that playing every hand to draw to a royal would be better if it is one of the slot-type machines since it is determined at the beginning of the hand whether you'll hit? Or are you referring strictly to the initial deal?

Michael

Bill Vanek

2021-11-09 23:44:52 UTC

Post by Splashie

Post by risky biz
There was one disturbing thing about it, though. I was playing quarters.
Single-hand, BP. I went to another casino and came back to the same machine
later. Played quarters again and something weird happened. I've never seen
it before. I hit quads four times in a twenty-minute or less period. After
both the third and fourth ones, I thought about quitting but curiosity got
the better of me. I kept playing to see if it would continue and it didn't.
It turned into a back-and-forth drag that kept slowly slipping down with
mediocre rebounds. I lost about $150 back and quit with a good win for the
night.

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the
odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Interesting. Would you say that playing every hand to draw to a royal would
be better if it is one of the slot-type machines since it is determined at
the beginning of the hand whether you'll hit? Or are you referring strictly
to the initial deal?
Michael

My understanding is that in the actual deck games, all five of your cards
along with the replacements for each card if you draw are determined when the
first coin is dropped in the game. That is to prevent the games from deciding
an outcome based on the amount of your bet. And I’m talking about NV. I
have no idea how the slots types are programmed, or about the laws that apply
to them in various locales.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 08:39:45 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
My understanding is that in the actual deck games, all five of your cards
along with the replacements for each card if you draw are determined when the
first coin is dropped in the game. That is to prevent the games from deciding
an outcome based on the amount of your bet. And I’m talking about NV.

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class 3 machine anyway.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 17:13:29 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I
seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class
3 machine anyway.

This was discussed here over the years more than once. It really makes no
difference that I can see, and in fact seems more fair that way. That
prevents the machine from picking a card after it knows what the player
needs, or at least giving that impression. As long as it’s actually random,
it makes no difference when the card is picked.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 17:31:55 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I
seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class
3 machine anyway.

I'm sure the real answer could be learned by writing to someone who knows for sure. Ask someone at IGT and let me know, I'm anxious to learn the truth before I die and go to Heaven and have to ask God. In the meantime, I'm willing to put a few sheckles on it. As I think I mentioned, it's possible some manufacturers in the past could have chosen all ten cards at the first opportunity. I'm almost certain that ain't the way it's done with modern machines, especially IGT, or Aristocrat, Scientific Games, etc.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 17:46:29 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I
seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class
3 machine anyway.

I'm sure the real answer could be learned by writing to someone who knows for
sure. Ask someone at IGT and let me know, I'm anxious to learn the truth
before I die and go to Heaven and have to ask God. In the meantime, I'm
willing to put a few sheckles on it. As I think I mentioned, it's possible
some manufacturers in the past could have chosen all ten cards at the first
opportunity. I'm almost certain that ain't the way it's done with modern
machines, especially IGT, or Aristocrat, Scientific Games, etc.

I’m sure not going to argue about it. VP has zero interest for me, and zero
also describes my knowledge of it these days. I am going on memory from when
I had a little interest in how it worked. If you are interested in the law
around this, you can just call the Gaming Control Board. That’s where I got
my information back in the day.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 17:58:13 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I’m sure not going to argue about it. VP has zero interest for me, and zero
also describes my knowledge of it these days. I am going on memory from when
I had a little interest in how it worked. If you are interested in the law
around this, you can just call the Gaming Control Board. That’s where I got
my information back in the day.

I've gone this far in life also without knowing for sure, so it would seem I don't give much of a fuck either. A significant wager might make me give more of a fuck. And to find out, I'd rather ask IGT than Gaming Control.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 18:06:30 UTC

I've gone this far in life also without knowing for sure, so it would seem I
don't give much of a fuck either. A significant wager might make me give more
of a fuck. And to find out, I'd rather ask IGT than Gaming Control.

I called IGT a couple of times. They appear to have no obligation to answer
any questions, and they didn’t. GCB always answered any question I had,
including in a long talk with one of the higher ups. A lot of things
surprised me concerning table games procedures, and, separately, cheating by
casinos.

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:19:14 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I
seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class
3 machine anyway.

~ This was discussed here over the years more than once. It really makes no

Post by Bill Vanek
difference that I can see, and in fact seems more fair that way. That
prevents the machine from picking a card after it knows what the player
needs, or at least giving that impression. As long as it’s actually random,
it makes no difference when the card is picked.

On the subject of 'knows'- a different game, Texas Hold'Em Heads Up. The only info still around is this dopey, uninformative IGT video:

What I found: when I was first to bet and bet every hand the machine would raise when I had relatively weaker hole cards and call when I had relatively stronger hole cards, folding occasionally when it had weak hole cards. Over and over again, no variation. Should I have not been suspicious and assumed that GCB was protecting me? It certainly seemed to me to be looking at my hole cards.

I was beginning to attempt to compile a database to determine the dividing line on its call/raise parameter but COVID intervened. Now I think these machines have disappeared or are about to. They were always right next to the poker rooms and were not played often.

Also: it will often bet into check/raises all the way to the river.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 22:48:35 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I
seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class
3 machine anyway.

On the subject of 'knows'- a different game, Texas Hold'Em Heads Up. The only
http://youtu.be/o_HOxk-aU6I
What I found: when I was first to bet and bet every hand the machine would
raise when I had relatively weaker hole cards and call when I had relatively
stronger hole cards, folding occasionally when it had weak hole cards. Over
and over again, no variation. Should I have not been suspicious and assumed
that GCB was protecting me? It certainly seemed to me to be looking at my
hole cards.

Protecting you from what? If you don’t know the programming code that GCB
approved for that game, you can’t know if IGT is in violation of anything.
If IGT is not obligated to give you a fair, random game based on a 52 card
deck, then you have nothing to complain about. That’s why I would never
play such a game - not unless someone honestly tells me how it is supposed to
work. The question is whether you are actually playing poker against the
game, or if it’s just a black box slot machine sort of thing.

Post by risky biz
I was beginning to attempt to compile a database to determine the dividing
line on its call/raise parameter but COVID intervened. Now I think these
machines have disappeared or are about to. They were always right next to the
poker rooms and were not played often.
Also: it will often bet into check/raises all the way to the river.

C Mayhem

2021-11-10 21:51:30 UTC

I doubt that. The rng is running gazzillions every second, constantly. I seriously doubt if the "draw cards" are predetermined. Not in a modern Class 3 machine anyway.

As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was exploitable.

C

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 21:59:54 UTC

As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was exploitable.
C

I think I did allow for that in this discussion, I don't want to search back for it. Nowadays, I'd bet my left nut that the draw cards are chosen the instant they are needed.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 22:50:06 UTC

Post by C Mayhem
As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace
discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was
exploitable.
C

I think I did allow for that in this discussion, I don't want to search back
for it. Nowadays, I'd bet my left nut that the draw cards are chosen the
instant they are needed.

No one is going to bet against you because no one here knows.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 23:01:21 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
No one is going to bet against you because no one here knows.

No one is going to bet against me because there are no gamb00lers on this poker newsgroup. I don't know the answer so it would be an even bet. Someone could find the true answer and then bet against me on a sure thing. Surely there are angle shooters on the group, heck, it's 90% democrat, they have no honor.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-11 01:26:38 UTC

Post by Satoshi Popinjay
I don't know the answer so it would be an even bet.

You might be hustling us.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 05:05:03 UTC

Post by Satoshi Popinjay
I don't know the answer so it would be an even bet.

You might be hustling us.

I just found this on the internet. So it must be true.

People with insufficient knowledge tend to believe that the RNG shuffles virtual cards. This is why we need to clarify, that, in fact, it generates a combination of numbers within a predetermined range on a constant basis.

If we take the Jacks or Better video poker game, each of the 52 cards included in the deck has a corresponding number (between 1 and 52). Whenever a player deposits coins or pushes the ”Bet One Credit” or ”Bet Max” buttons, the video poker machine's microprocessor collects five random numbers in a period as short as 1/1000 of a second, after which it ”translates” them into card images. Now the player has received a hand, which to begin the game with.

The first five cards are dealt in the above-mentioned manner by all video poker machines. However, different machines generate replacements for the cards a player wishes to remove in a different manner. Those machines, which were manufactured before the mid-1980s, use a ”parallel method of dealing”. What is specific about the latter is that the machine simultaneously selects the five cards comprising the hand and the five replacement cards for the draw. Every replacement card is linked to one of the cards in the original hand, while also being lined up behind it. Only when the player decides not to keep a card, the replacement card will be shown.

At the time these machines were made available to the public, there were people, who spoke against parallel dealing. The reason for it was the fact that the card a player needs to get a complete winning hand may turn out to be behind a card they kept, thus, they will not receive that card.

Later, between the mid-1980s and late 1990s, a new type of video poker machine was introduced, machines that use a ”serial dealing” method. This means that when the machine deals the five cards in the original hand, it also selects five replacement cards (which cannot be viewed), that are stacked in a sequential manner. Regardless of which card the player decides to get rid of, the first replacement card in the sequence is shown. In case the player desires to get rid of three cards, the first three replacements in the sequence will be shown.

There is another method of card dealing, known as ”five and five dealing”. In this case, the machine does not choose the replacement cards for the draw at the time when the original hand of five cards is dealt. After the first deal, the Random Number Generator continues producing combinations of numbers. Only when the player makes up his/her mind to keep particular cards, the RNG will choose replacements for cards, that have been discarded.

Tim Norfolk

2021-11-11 05:13:51 UTC

Post by Satoshi Popinjay
I don't know the answer so it would be an even bet.

You might be hustling us.

I just found this on the internet. So it must be true.
People with insufficient knowledge tend to believe that the RNG shuffles virtual cards. This is why we need to clarify, that, in fact, it generates a combination of numbers within a predetermined range on a constant basis.
If we take the Jacks or Better video poker game, each of the 52 cards included in the deck has a corresponding number (between 1 and 52). Whenever a player deposits coins or pushes the ”Bet One Credit” or ”Bet Max” buttons, the video poker machine's microprocessor collects five random numbers in a period as short as 1/1000 of a second, after which it ”translates” them into card images. Now the player has received a hand, which to begin the game with.
The first five cards are dealt in the above-mentioned manner by all video poker machines. However, different machines generate replacements for the cards a player wishes to remove in a different manner. Those machines, which were manufactured before the mid-1980s, use a ”parallel method of dealing”. What is specific about the latter is that the machine simultaneously selects the five cards comprising the hand and the five replacement cards for the draw. Every replacement card is linked to one of the cards in the original hand, while also being lined up behind it. Only when the player decides not to keep a card, the replacement card will be shown.
At the time these machines were made available to the public, there were people, who spoke against parallel dealing. The reason for it was the fact that the card a player needs to get a complete winning hand may turn out to be behind a card they kept, thus, they will not receive that card.
Later, between the mid-1980s and late 1990s, a new type of video poker machine was introduced, machines that use a ”serial dealing” method. This means that when the machine deals the five cards in the original hand, it also selects five replacement cards (which cannot be viewed), that are stacked in a sequential manner. Regardless of which card the player decides to get rid of, the first replacement card in the sequence is shown. In case the player desires to get rid of three cards, the first three replacements in the sequence will be shown.
There is another method of card dealing, known as ”five and five dealing”. In this case, the machine does not choose the replacement cards for the draw at the time when the original hand of five cards is dealt. After the first deal, the Random Number Generator continues producing combinations of numbers. Only when the player makes up his/her mind to keep particular cards, the RNG will choose replacements for cards, that have been discarded.

And those are all functionally equivalent, in terms of outcomes and their probabilities.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-11 06:06:35 UTC

Post by Satoshi Popinjay
I don't know the answer so it would be an even bet.

You might be hustling us.

I just found this on the internet. So it must be true.
People with insufficient knowledge tend to believe that the RNG shuffles
virtual cards. This is why we need to clarify, that, in fact, it generates
a combination of numbers within a predetermined range on a constant basis.
If we take the Jacks or Better video poker game, each of the 52 cards
included in the deck has a corresponding number (between 1 and 52).
Whenever a player deposits coins or pushes the ”Bet One Credit” or
”Bet Max” buttons, the video poker machine's microprocessor collects
five random numbers in a period as short as 1/1000 of a second, after which
it ”translates” them into card images. Now the player has received a
hand, which to begin the game with.
The first five cards are dealt in the above-mentioned manner by all video
poker machines. However, different machines generate replacements for the
cards a player wishes to remove in a different manner. Those machines,
which were manufactured before the mid-1980s, use a ”parallel method of
dealing”. What is specific about the latter is that the machine
simultaneously selects the five cards comprising the hand and the five
replacement cards for the draw. Every replacement card is linked to one of
the cards in the original hand, while also being lined up behind it. Only
when the player decides not to keep a card, the replacement card will be
shown.
At the time these machines were made available to the public, there were
people, who spoke against parallel dealing. The reason for it was the fact
that the card a player needs to get a complete winning hand may turn out to
be behind a card they kept, thus, they will not receive that card.
Later, between the mid-1980s and late 1990s, a new type of video poker
machine was introduced, machines that use a ”serial dealing” method.
This means that when the machine deals the five cards in the original hand,
it also selects five replacement cards (which cannot be viewed), that are
stacked in a sequential manner. Regardless of which card the player decides
to get rid of, the first replacement card in the sequence is shown. In case
the player desires to get rid of three cards, the first three replacements
in the sequence will be shown.
There is another method of card dealing, known as ”five and five
dealing”. In this case, the machine does not choose the replacement cards
for the draw at the time when the original hand of five cards is dealt.
After the first deal, the Random Number Generator continues producing
combinations of numbers. Only when the player makes up his/her mind to keep
particular cards, the RNG will choose replacements for cards, that have
been discarded.

And those are all functionally equivalent, in terms of outcomes and their probabilities.

Agreed, but I don’t know who would have won the bet. Sounds like no winner
to me.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 06:13:22 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
Agreed, but I don’t know who would have won the bet. Sounds like no winner
to me.

I just found the article on the internet. Tim still needs to run it by factcheckfucks.org

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 06:09:30 UTC

Post by Tim Norfolk
And those are all functionally equivalent, in terms of outcomes and their probabilities.

It would seem so.

Tim Norfolk

2021-11-10 23:46:28 UTC

Post by C Mayhem
As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace
discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was
exploitable.
C

I think I did allow for that in this discussion, I don't want to search back
for it. Nowadays, I'd bet my left nut that the draw cards are chosen the
instant they are needed.

No one is going to bet against you because no one here knows.

I wouldn't bet against him because I believe that he is correct. In fact, I recall from somewhere that the replacement cards are behind the displayed ones.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 23:53:05 UTC

Post by C Mayhem
As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace
discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was
exploitable.
C

I think I did allow for that in this discussion, I don't want to search back
for it. Nowadays, I'd bet my left nut that the draw cards are chosen the
instant they are needed.

No one is going to bet against you because no one here knows.

I wouldn't bet against him because I believe that he is correct. In fact, I
recall from somewhere that the replacement cards are behind the displayed
ones.

That would make him wrong. This has been discussed here, but it has been
years. A couple of posters have said that the game changed since then. I was
going by the old info.

risky biz

2021-11-11 11:07:33 UTC

As I recall, the earlier draw poker games had chosen cards to replace discards on the deal. This changed at some point. Maybe they figured it was exploitable.
C

~ I think I did allow for that in this discussion, I don't want to search back for it. Nowadays, I'd bet my left nut that the draw cards are chosen the instant they are needed.

How much would you want to cover the bet?

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 08:58:14 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
Some machines are configured to shuffle and deal normal decks of cards, and
others are just slots. On the ones that deal from decks, the odds of being
dealt a royal are the same. One the slots versions, it’s however they’re
programmed. After the deal, though, things change because you don’t play a
machine the same as you’d play a hand in a poker game. So the overall odds
change considerably between playing every hand to draw to a royal, and
playing optimum strategy for the machine.

Class 3 Slots, like in Nevada, are actually random. Yes, the result is decided at the moment you press/pull. But, for instance, there may be three physical reels, each with 22 symbols. If each symbol were equal, there would be 22x22x22 possibilities. There was a day. Nowadays, there is a virtual reel, with maybe 64 "stops", and each of the 64 stops points to one of the 22 symbols. But the 64 stops, ARE chosen randomly. They are not "programmed".

In places like Washington, New York, British Columbia, there are VLTs, video lottery terminals. It's the lottery. In places like Oklahoma, they have Class 2 games that run like Bingo, but simulate an actual random game. You can tell one of these machines by the presence of a small "bingo" thingy somewhere on the machine, usually near the keys. In California tribal casinos, some places have both, Class 3 and Class 2. Y'gotta pay attention.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 17:14:39 UTC

Class 3 Slots, like in Nevada, are actually random. Yes, the result is
decided at the moment you press/pull. But, for instance, there may be three
physical reels, each with 22 symbols. If each symbol were equal, there would
be 22x22x22 possibilities. There was a day. Nowadays, there is a virtual
reel, with maybe 64 "stops", and each of the 64 stops points to one of the 22
symbols. But the 64 stops, ARE chosen randomly. They are not "programmed".
In places like Washington, New York, British Columbia, there are VLTs, video
lottery terminals. It's the lottery. In places like Oklahoma, they have Class
2 games that run like Bingo, but simulate an actual random game. You can tell
one of these machines by the presence of a small "bingo" thingy somewhere on
the machine, usually near the keys. In California tribal casinos, some places
have both, Class 3 and Class 2. Y'gotta pay attention.

We seem to be talking about two different things. When I mention “slots
types”, I still mean video poker.

BTSinAustin

2021-11-10 17:29:19 UTC

Ok, you guys do know your gambling so I have another newb question. I have never placed a bet in a sports book, bookies yes. I know how the point spread works but what I don't know is when a bet has a positive or negative number. Like -200 or 125 or some such. What exactly does that mean? And why would you go that route instead of the spread? I assume its an odds thing? Yes I could google, but its more interesting the way you guys are describing things.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 17:52:05 UTC

-200 is the "Money Line". It's laying 2 to 1. The difference is where the House earns its edge. If you're betting with the House or a bookie, you might have to spot or take points but either way the bet might be -110, laying 110 to win 100. There's 20 cents difference, for the House.

Splashie

2021-11-10 18:22:45 UTC

Those are moneyline bets (no point spread) all based on $100. If the number is negative, you have to bet the amount listed to win $100. If the number is positive (underdog), you have to bet $100 to win the amount listed. Example: The Lakers are playing the Miami Heat tonight. Miami is a 4.5 point favorite and their moneyline is -190 while the Lakers are +160. So if you bet $190 on Miami moneyline, they can win by any amount and you'll get your bet back plus $100. If you bet $100 on the Lakers moneyline and they win outright, you get your bet back plus $160.

The main reason to play moneyline is if you like the underdog to win outright, it's better odds than taking them with the points.

Michael

BTSinAustin

2021-11-10 18:29:28 UTC

Post by Splashie

Those are moneyline bets (no point spread) all based on $100. If the number is negative, you have to bet the amount listed to win $100. If the number is positive (underdog), you have to bet $100 to win the amount listed. Example: The Lakers are playing the Miami Heat tonight. Miami is a 4.5 point favorite and their moneyline is -190 while the Lakers are +160. So if you bet $190 on Miami moneyline, they can win by any amount and you'll get your bet back plus $100. If you bet $100 on the Lakers moneyline and they win outright, you get your bet back plus $160.
The main reason to play moneyline is if you like the underdog to win outright, it's better odds than taking them with the points.
Michael

Makes perfect sense and is better written than the explanation I got from google after I posted. I assume the delta between 160 and 190 is the juice?

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 18:56:19 UTC

Post by Splashie

Those are moneyline bets (no point spread) all based on $100. If the number is negative, you have to bet the amount listed to win $100. If the number is positive (underdog), you have to bet $100 to win the amount listed. Example: The Lakers are playing the Miami Heat tonight. Miami is a 4.5 point favorite and their moneyline is -190 while the Lakers are +160. So if you bet $190 on Miami moneyline, they can win by any amount and you'll get your bet back plus $100. If you bet $100 on the Lakers moneyline and they win outright, you get your bet back plus $160.
The main reason to play moneyline is if you like the underdog to win outright, it's better odds than taking them with the points.
Michael

Good for arbitrage. When I first started online gambling in the early 2000s, I was in 100s of casinos. I regularly found arbitrage opportunities, especially with college games. Bet on Team A at -100, and bet at another book on Team B at +110. Bet properly and guarantee a profit no matter what. I had thousands all over the internet almost every day of the week. It got confusing, but I did well. One time I bet a hockey line where they had clearly fucked up. I bet quite a bit, and won my bet at the book that had the fucked up line. Looked for my balance, LOCKED OUT. Had to call and beg to get my money and promise not to "take advantage" of them again. The book was co-signed by Phil Helmuth, I figured one way or another I was going to get paid, either that or talk a lot of shit.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 17:40:42 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
We seem to be talking about two different things. When I mention “slots
types”, I still mean video poker.

So do I. I mentioned Class 2 and VLTs. Is there any other video poker that you think might be a "slot type"?

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 17:49:25 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
We seem to be talking about two different things. When I mention “slots
types”, I still mean video poker.

So do I. I mentioned Class 2 and VLTs. Is there any other video poker that
you think might be a "slot type”?

As I said in another post, I know nothing about this outside of the general
info I had some years ago. I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 18:00:08 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

I just mentioned four.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 18:09:09 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

I just mentioned four.

You are losing me. All that I saw was clearly about slots. You kept
mentioning reels. That has nothing to do with programming either type of VP.
What am I missing?

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 18:37:46 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

I just mentioned four.

You are losing me. All that I saw was clearly about slots. You kept
mentioning reels. That has nothing to do with programming either type of VP.
What am I missing?

There are Class 2 video poker games in Oklahoma, and here in California, that have a bingo game decide what your results will be. But the machine simulates what a truly random game based on cards, or reel stops, would look like. It looks like Nevada, but it ain't. It's bingo. Then, I mentioned VLTs, and that's a lottery pick, whether on a video poker game or a slot game. Pretty sure VLTs are offered in part of New York, state of Washington, and casinos in British Columbia.

Bill Vanek

2021-11-10 23:33:24 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

I just mentioned four.

You are losing me. All that I saw was clearly about slots. You kept
mentioning reels. That has nothing to do with programming either type of VP.
What am I missing?

There are Class 2 video poker games in Oklahoma, and here in California, that
have a bingo game decide what your results will be. But the machine simulates
what a truly random game based on cards, or reel stops, would look like. It
looks like Nevada, but it ain't. It's bingo. Then, I mentioned VLTs, and
that's a lottery pick, whether on a video poker game or a slot game. Pretty
sure VLTs are offered in part of New York, state of Washington, and casinos
in British Columbia.

Okay, that helps.

C Mayhem

2021-11-10 21:54:16 UTC

Post by Bill Vanek
I don’t even know if any states allow anything
other than VP with decks of cards these days.

I just mentioned four.

I have seen the "bingo thingy" in Oklahoma and Florida.

C

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 22:03:30 UTC

Post by C Mayhem
I have seen the "bingo thingy" in Oklahoma and Florida.
C

As I mentioned, we've got a few here near Fresno. Not vp, but slot games. I have always wanted to find a Class 2 video poker and see if it is true that if you break a dealt quads, you will draw quads. Or is that just bullshit?

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:32:55 UTC

Post by C Mayhem
I have seen the "bingo thingy" in Oklahoma and Florida.
C

~ As I mentioned, we've got a few here near Fresno. Not vp, but slot games. I have always wanted to find a Class 2 video poker and see if it is true that if you break a dealt quads, you will draw quads. Or is that just bullshit?

I mistakenly held a single high card once when I had a 4-card outside straight draw and I was dealt a straight. Hmmm.

VegasJerry

2021-11-09 20:32:57 UTC

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

.
Same, state law.

risky biz

2021-11-09 22:58:27 UTC

~ Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

The below probabilities are based on a random deal:

8/5 Bonus Poker — 99.17%
Hand Payoff Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 800 495443136 0.000025 0.019884
Straight flush 50 2129604264 0.000107 0.005342
4 aces 80 3903775812 0.000196 0.015667
4 2-4 40 10509866328 0.000527 0.021090
4 5-K 25 32688417336 0.001640 0.040997
Full house 8 229516869924 0.011514 0.092114
Flush 5 216873645000 0.010880 0.054400
Straight 4 223676319912 0.011221 0.044885
3 of a kind 3 1484391167856 0.074468 0.223405
Two pair 2 2577523603752 0.129308 0.258616
Jacks or better 1 4290810981444 0.215259 0.215259
Nothing 0 10860710822436 0.544855 0.000000
Total 19933230517200 1.000000 0.991660

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 08:34:12 UTC

Post by risky biz
8/5 Bonus Poker — 99.17%
Hand Payoff Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 800 495443136 0.000025 0.019884
Straight flush 50 2129604264 0.000107 0.005342
4 aces 80 3903775812 0.000196 0.015667
4 2-4 40 10509866328 0.000527 0.021090
4 5-K 25 32688417336 0.001640 0.040997
Full house 8 229516869924 0.011514 0.092114
Flush 5 216873645000 0.010880 0.054400
Straight 4 223676319912 0.011221 0.044885
3 of a kind 3 1484391167856 0.074468 0.223405
Two pair 2 2577523603752 0.129308 0.258616
Jacks or better 1 4290810981444 0.215259 0.215259
Nothing 0 10860710822436 0.544855 0.000000
Total 19933230517200 1.000000 0.991660

The above probabilities are based on a strategy, not a random deal. You may decide to simplify your strategy and ALWAYS hold KJ-offsuit over JT-suited. That would make the game easier to play, but it would not be perfect play. Say your hand is Ks Jh Th 8c 2d. Holding KJ would be the correct play. But if your hand was Ks Jh Th 6c 2d, the correct play would be holding the JT over the KJ, because the 8 interfered with the JT in the first hand and now you have a 6 instead of an 8 and that interference is not there. Now you keep the JT over the KJ. The 8 in the first hand was a "penalty card", specifically a "straight penalty".

The difference is minor but if you play perfect and make every penalty adjustment, the game will return 99.1660%, and if you play a simpler strategy, like always keeping KJ over JTs, it will return less. The probabilities would be different in many areas. There is only ONE perfect strategy, and Bonus Poker with an 8-5 is a complicated game. Jacks-or-Better with a 9-6 is actually much easier. There are only six hands that change in the Basic Strategy to the Perfect Strategy. In 8-5 Bonus, there are dozens.

Either way, most strategies will see a Royal about once in 40,000 hands, and that's true with almost every game. If you were playing the above game with a progressive, say the Royal was at 6000 instead of 4000, you would adjust your strategy and expect a Royal in approximately every 34,000 hands. Some of your adjustments would be breaking a pair of Jacks to draw two cards to a Royal, like in the hand Js Jd Ad Td 3h.

risky biz

2021-11-10 21:08:45 UTC

~ The above probabilities are based on a strategy, not a random deal.

But the strategy is based on the assumption of a random deal. Strategies can vary a little but the return differences are very minor assuming the person designing the strategy is trying to get the best possible return.

Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️

I play it 'wrong' and hold:
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

It isn't a strategy, it's an experiment. At $10 a hand I have to grit my teeth.

~ You may decide to simplify your strategy and ALWAYS hold KJ-offsuit over JT-suited. That would make the game easier to play, but it would not be perfect play. Say your hand is Ks Jh Th 8c 2d. Holding KJ would be the correct play. But if your hand was Ks Jh Th 6c 2d, the correct play would be holding the JT over the KJ, because the 8 interfered with the JT in the first hand and now you have a 6 instead of an 8 and that interference is not there. Now you keep the JT over the KJ. The 8 in the first hand was a "penalty card", specifically a "straight penalty".

The difference is minor but if you play perfect and make every penalty adjustment, the game will return 99.1660%, and if you play a simpler strategy, like always keeping KJ over JTs, it will return less. The probabilities would be different in many areas. There is only ONE perfect strategy, and Bonus Poker with an 8-5 is a complicated game. Jacks-or-Better with a 9-6 is actually much easier. There are only six hands that change in the Basic Strategy to the Perfect Strategy. In 8-5 Bonus, there are dozens.
Either way, most strategies will see a Royal about once in 40,000 hands, and that's true with almost every game. If you were playing the above game with a progressive, say the Royal was at 6000 instead of 4000, you would adjust your strategy and expect a Royal in approximately every 34,000 hands. Some of your adjustments would be breaking a pair of Jacks to draw two cards to a Royal, like in the hand Js Jd Ad Td 3h.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 21:48:42 UTC

Can't get a better return than perfect and since your numbers above total 0.991660 it must be built on the perfect strategy.

Post by risky biz
Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

Always split a high pair to draw to a 4-card SF. That looks expensive. I'll get back to you on this.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 22:24:56 UTC

Post by risky biz
Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

Always split a high pair to draw to a 4-card SF. That looks expensive. I'll get back to you on this.

That is a huge error.

Kd Qd Jd 9d Kh

11.7021 Kh Qh Jh 9h

7.6318 Kd Kh

6.7715 Kd Qd Jd

Holy fuck, that's a $5 mistake. Stop that shit, Risky.

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:30:06 UTC

Post by risky biz
Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

Always split a high pair to draw to a 4-card SF. That looks expensive. I'll get back to you on this.

That is a huge error.
Kd Qd Jd 9d Kh
11.7021 Kh Qh Jh 9h
7.6318 Kd Kh
6.7715 Kd Qd Jd
Holy fuck, that's a $5 mistake. Stop that shit, Risky.

See my correction post. Which is also an 'error' play. That's the point of the experiment.

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:28:14 UTC

Can't get a better return than perfect and since your numbers above total 0.991660 it must be built on the perfect strategy.

Post by risky biz
Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

~ Always split a high pair to draw to a 4-card SF. That looks expensive. I'll get back to you on this.

My error. No 4-card SF. I should have shown it as :
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 8♦️ K♥️

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 22:38:03 UTC

Can't get a better return than perfect and since your numbers above total 0.991660 it must be built on the perfect strategy.

Post by risky biz
Here's something I've started doing with this hand in Bonus Poker
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 9♦️ K♥️
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️

~ Always split a high pair to draw to a 4-card SF. That looks expensive. I'll get back to you on this.
K♦️ Q♦️ J♦️ 8♦️ K♥️

That's better, more like a 60 cent mistake instead of $5. lol

If it's a progressive at $4645, it's a coin-flip.

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-11 22:06:58 UTC

That's a stereotypical hand- it comes up as a K high 3SF, a 4Flush, and a high pair (the 'correct' hold). But one came up last night with a pair of aces. I held the aces and discarded the rest. I will continue holding aces and discarding the other high pairs as long as the test continues. That will make it less than 60 cents.

Why do you need a test? We've got software that gives us answers on demand. Tests are just reinventing the wheel.

C Mayhem

2021-11-10 21:31:06 UTC

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

The odds of being dealt a royal is roughly 1 in 650,000. It's pretty startling because the machine locks up and doesn't let you discard. I tend to think the machine has malfunctioned for a few seconds. The odds of drawing to a RF is strategy dependent. Strategy will change with game selection. roughly, every 40,000 hands for a game like Jacks or better with a maximum expected value strategy. More for double double.

C

Satoshi Popinjay

2021-11-10 21:54:42 UTC

Double Bonus is 48,000 hands. Of course, because of the "7" pay for Flush.

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:24:53 UTC

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

~ The odds of being dealt a royal is roughly 1 in 650,000. It's pretty startling because the machine locks up and doesn't let you discard. I tend to think the machine has malfunctioned for a few seconds.

This happened to me a few sessions ago in Super Triple Play/Super Double Double. I was dealt quad jacks with an ace kicker in 3-hand. I thought I hit the draw button accidentally but immediately realized that everything was held rather than discarded. Phew!

The odds of drawing to a RF is strategy dependent. Strategy will change with game selection. roughly, every 40,000 hands for a game like Jacks or better with a maximum expected value strategy. More for double double.
C

C Mayhem

2021-11-10 21:42:30 UTC

Knowing exactly nothing about Video Poker I have a question. What are the odds of hitting a Royal on a machine or is it the same as a deck of cards?

Oh, in many places, as Nevada, a machine representation of cards or dice is supposed to reflect the same odds as the real deal. So a machine game with a 52 card deck should have the same chances at all 52 cards as a real deck. In some places this is not necessarily the case. I see these games every once in a while.

C

risky biz

2021-11-10 22:38:52 UTC