Discussion:
New York City says electric cars are now the cheapest option
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Unum
2019-03-18 21:17:26 UTC
Permalink
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news

The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries). They want to know every penny
they’ll be spending over the course of a decade or so they might keep the
vehicle. EVs, because of their low fuel (electricity) costs and relative
simplicity (uncomplicated motors, fewer moving parts) are cheaper, on a
relative basis, than their conventional counterparts.

New York City released its numbers to the public. In what it calls the first
analysis of its kind, the city analyzed fuel and maintenance costs for
its 9,196 light-passenger vehicles in 2018. It found servicing costs with all-
electric vehicle models was less than for gas, hybrid, and hybrid plug-in models.

Despite slightly higher initial prices compared to the gas-powered Ford
Fusion, the Leaf saved the city $8,748, or 21% of the expected $41,328 for the
gasoline car. “All early indicators are that we are achieving the fuel,
emissions, and maintenance benefits of this exciting transition away from the
internal combustion engine,” the agency wrote.
R Kym Horsell
2019-03-18 21:39:41 UTC
Permalink
Unum <***@yourbusiness.com> wrote:
...
Post by Unum
Despite slightly higher initial prices compared to the gas-powered Ford
Fusion, the Leaf saved the city $8,748, or 21% of the expected $41,328 for the
gasoline car. "All early indicators are that we are achieving the fuel,
emissions, and maintenance benefits of this exciting transition away from the
internal combustion engine," the agency wrote.
Das unPOSSIBLE!
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Replying to @aropeik
Except no change in long term trend of Outer Hebrides tide gauge data. Less
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[The average of RQ stations around the UK shows an average ~3mm/yr since
1950 and after 1990 ~6mm/yr].
Chom Noamsky
2019-03-18 22:08:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries). They want to know every penny
they’ll be spending over the course of a decade or so they might keep the
vehicle. EVs, because of their low fuel (electricity) costs and relative
simplicity (uncomplicated motors, fewer moving parts) are cheaper, on a
relative basis, than their conventional counterparts.
New York City released its numbers to the public. In what it calls the first
analysis of its kind, the city analyzed fuel and maintenance costs for
its 9,196 light-passenger vehicles in 2018. It found servicing costs with all-
electric vehicle models was less than for gas, hybrid, and hybrid plug-in models.
Despite slightly higher initial prices compared to the gas-powered Ford
Fusion, the Leaf saved the city $8,748, or 21% of the expected $41,328 for the
gasoline car. “All early indicators are that we are achieving the fuel,
emissions, and maintenance benefits of this exciting transition away from the
internal combustion engine,” the agency wrote.
Nope.

EVs still lose because they have such hideously low residual values.

Typically they sell for 50% or less after just 36 mo and around 18%
after 60 mo.

Used conventional autos OTOH are worth double that of used EVs.

More than makes up for any saving in operating costs.

Some EV models are selling for just 25% of retail after 24 mo.

Yep, factor harsh depreciation into fleet TCO and EVs still end up
costing yer way more.

That's why 80% of EVs are leased, very few people actually want to own
one because of the depreciation whack.

I won't even get into the $7500 federal tax credit or the $2000 state
rebate in NY, which lowers EV fleet TCO on the backs of taxpayers.

Even with punitive carbon taxes, conventional autos are still a better deal.

When the EV incentive program was cut in Ontario recently, sales of
Nissan Leaf's went from 750/mo to 5/mo.

Given that consumers are generally the best judge of "bang for the
buck", that tells you everything you need to know about true EV economics.

Cue hissin' and spittin'
Unum
2019-03-19 17:48:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries). They want to know every penny
they’ll be spending over the course of a decade or so they might keep the
vehicle. EVs, because of their low fuel (electricity) costs and relative
simplicity (uncomplicated motors, fewer moving parts) are cheaper, on a
relative basis, than their conventional counterparts.
New York City released its numbers to the public. In what it calls the first
analysis of its kind, the city analyzed fuel and maintenance costs for
its 9,196 light-passenger vehicles in 2018. It found servicing costs with all-
electric vehicle models was less than for gas, hybrid, and hybrid plug-in models.
Despite slightly higher initial prices compared to the gas-powered Ford
Fusion, the Leaf saved the city $8,748, or 21% of the expected $41,328 for the
gasoline car. “All early indicators are that we are achieving the fuel,
emissions, and maintenance benefits of this exciting transition away from the
internal combustion engine,” the agency wrote.
Nope.
EVs still lose because they have such hideously low residual values.
Tesla, with a three-vehicle lineup that boasts the most miles per charge among
all current EVs, boasts excellent resale values. The top EV in this regard is
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years. That’s within striking distance of the model KBB cites as having
the best three-year trade in value among all vehicles
R Kym Horsell
2019-03-19 18:08:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics-which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
...
Post by Unum
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
internal combustion engine," the agency wrote.
Nope.
EVs still lose because they have such hideously low residual values.
Tesla, with a three-vehicle lineup that boasts the most miles per charge among
all current EVs, boasts excellent resale values. The top EV in this regard is
Tesla's Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years. That's within striking distance of the model KBB cites as having
the best three-year trade in value among all vehicles
And I think the bluebook on a late model Toyota is around 67% so "striking
distance" is pretty close.

So we have:

single unit resale running cost total cost
Toyota ~40k 26.8 0 13.2
Model 3 40k 25.6 -8.7 23.1
diff "10k" per unit

(The "costs" are consistently relative to the unmentioned avg running cost of
a vehicle).

No wonder NYC is interested in EV with an overall gain of 10k usd
per unit compared with a comparable Toyota ICE.

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[Late night news says "several" homes have been destroyed].

The egging that sparked change in Austroya 100 years ago
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ABC Southern Qld, 19 Mar 2019 9:41am
Vision of senator Fraser Anning hitting a teenager after he was egged at a
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But it is not the first time an egg has been aimed at a controversial
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During WWI, prime minister Billy Hughes toured southern Queensland to whip
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Power restored to 30k Sydney homes
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Cyclone Trevor: 220km/h winds recorded as storm hits far north Queensland
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Bret Cahill
2019-03-19 18:58:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries). They want to know every penny
they’ll be spending over the course of a decade or so they might keep the
vehicle. EVs, because of their low fuel (electricity) costs and relative
simplicity (uncomplicated motors, fewer moving parts) are cheaper, on a
relative basis, than their conventional counterparts.
New York City released its numbers to the public. In what it calls the first
analysis of its kind, the city analyzed fuel and maintenance costs for
its 9,196 light-passenger vehicles in 2018. It found servicing costs with all-
electric vehicle models was less than for gas, hybrid, and hybrid plug-in models.
Despite slightly higher initial prices compared to the gas-powered Ford
Fusion, the Leaf saved the city $8,748, or 21% of the expected $41,328 for the
gasoline car. “All early indicators are that we are achieving the fuel,
emissions, and maintenance benefits of this exciting transition away from the
internal combustion engine,” the agency wrote.
Nope.
EVs still lose because they have such hideously low residual values.
Tesla, with a three-vehicle lineup that boasts the most miles per charge among
all current EVs, boasts excellent resale values. The top EV in this regard is
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years. That’s within striking distance of the model KBB cites as having
the best three-year trade in value among all vehicles
Some of Tesla's value may be that it's _already_ a collector's item.

It won't console a tar gooper much but this effect will increase as larger auto companies come out with cheaper cars.


Bret Cahill
Chom Noamsky
2019-03-19 19:21:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years.
"expected" to? In other words weeze ain't git the "actual" part yet.

EVs Are Cheap to Run but Expensive to Own, Thanks to Abysmal Resale Values

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340530/evs-are-cheap-to-run-but-expensive-to-own-thanks-to-abysmal-resale-values/

Lease Undesirable Alternative: 80 Percent of EVs are Leased, Not Bought

For contrarians and possible risk-takers, there’s a strong argument in
favor of buying EVs used. At three years of age, some sell for as little
as 25 percent of their initial price and there are fewer wear parts,
other than the battery. Most combustion-engine cars retain 35-55 percent
of their value at three years of life.

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/261386-lease-undesirable-alternative-80-evs-leased-not-bough
Unum
2019-03-19 19:40:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years.
"expected" to?  In other words weeze ain't git the "actual" part yet.
chumpsky doesn't want anyone to look at EV's that became available recently.
EVs Are Cheap to Run but Expensive to Own, Thanks to Abysmal Resale Values
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340530/evs-are-cheap-to-run-but-expensive-to-own-thanks-to-abysmal-resale-values/
A report from two years ago that doesn't include cars you can
buy today. Things do change as time passes.
Lease Undesirable Alternative: 80 Percent of EVs are Leased, Not Bought
For contrarians and possible risk-takers, there’s a strong argument in favor
of buying EVs used. At three years of age, some sell for as little as 25
percent of their initial price and there are fewer wear parts, other than the
battery. Most combustion-engine cars retain 35-55 percent of their value at
three years of life.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/261386-lease-undesirable-alternative-80-evs-leased-not-bough
"many EVs were sold with $7,500 federal tax credits and some state rebates of
several thousand dollars. So a four-year-old $40,000 EV that cost $32,500
after the tax credit has an actual residual of 30 percent relative to the
selling price."

"EVs and plug-ins only have a few years of sales data and residual values that
can be tracked."
Chom Noamsky
2019-03-19 20:27:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Unum
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years.
"expected" to?  In other words weeze ain't git the "actual" part yet.
chumpsky doesn't want anyone to look at EV's that became available recently.
EVs Are Cheap to Run but Expensive to Own, Thanks to Abysmal Resale Values
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340530/evs-are-cheap-to-run-but-expensive-to-own-thanks-to-abysmal-resale-values/
A report from two years ago that doesn't include cars you can
buy today. Things do change as time passes.
Q: What has substantially changed in two years?

A: ____________________________________________
Post by Unum
Lease Undesirable Alternative: 80 Percent of EVs are Leased, Not Bought
For contrarians and possible risk-takers, there’s a strong argument in
favor of buying EVs used. At three years of age, some sell for as
little as 25 percent of their initial price and there are fewer wear
parts, other than the battery. Most combustion-engine cars retain
35-55 percent of their value at three years of life.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/261386-lease-undesirable-alternative-80-evs-leased-not-bough
"many EVs were sold with $7,500 federal tax credits and some state rebates of
several thousand dollars. So a four-year-old $40,000 EV that cost $32,500
after the tax credit has an actual residual of 30 percent relative to the
selling price."
So yer saying piss-poor EV residuals would be even worse without the
federal tax credit and the state rebates?
Post by Unum
"EVs and plug-ins only have a few years of sales data and residual values that
can be tracked."
Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf have been around since 2010, did a dog eat
the data?
Bret Cahill
2019-03-19 22:50:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chom Noamsky
Q: What has substantially changed in two years?
Cheaper batteries & more charging stations.
Unum
2019-03-20 19:01:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Chom Noamsky
Q: What has substantially changed in two years?
Cheaper batteries & more charging stations.
EV development moves forward at a rapid pace, and a report from 2 years
ago about cars that were purchased 5 years ago is worthless.
Bret Cahill
2019-03-20 19:10:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Chom Noamsky
Q: What has substantially changed in two years?
Cheaper batteries & more charging stations.
EV development moves forward at a rapid pace, and a report from 2 years
ago about cars that were purchased 5 years ago is worthless.
The growth rate of the steel industry in the U. S. was over 25% a year for 3 decades, 3 orders of magnitude between 1860 - 1890.

We're going to do it again with green energy.


Bret Cahill

Unum
2019-03-20 18:59:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
Post by Unum
Tesla’s Model 3, which is expected to retain 64.3% of its original worth after
three years.
"expected" to?  In other words weeze ain't git the "actual" part yet.
chumpsky doesn't want anyone to look at EV's that became available recently.
EVs Are Cheap to Run but Expensive to Own, Thanks to Abysmal Resale Values
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15340530/evs-are-cheap-to-run-but-expensive-to-own-thanks-to-abysmal-resale-values/
A report from two years ago that doesn't include cars you can
buy today. Things do change as time passes.
Q: What has substantially changed in two years?
A: ____________________________________________
What part of "doesn't include cars you can buy today" did chumpsky not understand?
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
Lease Undesirable Alternative: 80 Percent of EVs are Leased, Not Bought
For contrarians and possible risk-takers, there’s a strong argument in
favor of buying EVs used. At three years of age, some sell for as little as
25 percent of their initial price and there are fewer wear parts, other
than the battery. Most combustion-engine cars retain 35-55 percent of their
value at three years of life.
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/261386-lease-undesirable-alternative-80-evs-leased-not-bough
"many EVs were sold with $7,500 federal tax credits and some state rebates of
several thousand dollars. So a four-year-old $40,000 EV that cost $32,500
after the tax credit has an actual residual of 30 percent relative to the
selling price."
So yer saying piss-poor EV residuals would be even worse without the federal
tax credit and the state rebates?
chumpsky is whining about the actual selling price of the cars.
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Unum
"EVs and plug-ins only have a few years of sales data and residual values that
can be tracked."
Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf have been around since 2010, did a dog eat the data?
What part of "doesn't include cars you can buy today" did chumpsky not understand?
Bret Cahill
2019-03-19 19:27:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries).
There seems to be incident after incident where it's really obvious some large entity didn't do a spreadsheet, i.e., UPS taking a week to figger out the payback time for an electric truck would by 60% less than originally calculated or the Tesla battery actually saving Australian consumers millions more than in the sales pitch.

Not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.

It's too late in the day unconscionable for a Podunk town not to be doing them let alone a large city or corporation or utility.

Again, not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.


Bret Cahill
Chom Noamsky
2019-03-19 19:37:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries).
There seems to be incident after incident where it's really obvious some large entity didn't do a spreadsheet, i.e., UPS taking a week to figger out the payback time for an electric truck would by 60% less than originally calculated or the Tesla battery actually saving Australian consumers millions more than in the sales pitch.
Not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.
It's too late in the day unconscionable for a Podunk town not to be doing them let alone a large city or corporation or utility.
Again, not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.
Spreadsheets are pointless if yer don't actually include important line
items...

... like the $7500 federal tax credit
... like the $2000 NY state rebate
... like the atrocious residual value

Even with massive public financial assistance lowering the cost of EV
fleet ownership, the piss-poor residual value still makes them a bad deal.

Q: Why do governments HAVE TO PAY people to buy EVs, if they are
economically superior?
Bret Cahill
2019-03-19 19:56:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chom Noamsky
Post by Bret Cahill
Post by Unum
https://qz.com/1571956/new-york-city-says-electric-cars-cheapest-option-for-its-fleet/?utm_source=google-news
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics—which is of
particular interest to fleet owners, including municipal governments. While
average car buyers look at the sticker price, fleet owners focus on lifetime
costs (maintenance, fuel, and ancillaries).
There seems to be incident after incident where it's really obvious some large entity didn't do a spreadsheet, i.e., UPS taking a week to figger out the payback time for an electric truck would by 60% less than originally calculated or the Tesla battery actually saving Australian consumers millions more than in the sales pitch.
Not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.
It's too late in the day unconscionable for a Podunk town not to be doing them let alone a large city or corporation or utility.
Again, not doing a spreadsheet is like not counting the money in your pocket.
Spreadsheets are pointless if yer don't actually include
You certainly need to CAT (consider all things) but that shouldn't be too difficult in these battery cases.

Apparently Musk didn't even bother looking at the peak pricing of the utility.
JTEM is Remarkably Flexible
2019-03-19 21:20:53 UTC
Permalink
Anyone remember when CFL bulbs were going to save everyone
$2.6 billion a month because they use so much less energy plus
they last forever so you never buy new ones?

Funny, seems like EVs are the new CFLs...
Post by Unum
The total cost of ownership can be far cheaper for all-electrics
So nobody is saying that it is cheaper. they're saying that it can be
cheaper... based on circumstances that may not be realistic.

You've got to pay WAY more for an EV, battery life isn't that long, you
have to plan your entire life around charging your EV when you live in
the city...

It's 2019, nimrods. A deeded parking pace in NYC was going for about
$200,000.00 back in 2017:

https://www.brickunderground.com/live/owning-a-parking-spot-Brooklyn

NOTE: The above is talking about Brooklyn, not Manhattan. You can
actually pay way, Way, *Way* more than $200-$300 thousand for a
parking space.

Now why a deeded parking spot matters here is that an EV is absolutely
no good unless and until you have some place to plug one in. And, yes,
there's the Tesla charging station -- which isn't even free, certainly not
for the Model 3 -- but that takes an hour and if there's people in line in
front of you, well, it takes all day now doesn't it?

So the fact is that EVs are way more expensive to buy, they are far more
of a hassle than gasoline powered cars -- no comparison there -- they
have a lousy resale value (you lose all your money), the battery life isn't
that good, the only way to truly solve the charging issue is to throw
hundreds of thousands of dollars into a deeded parking space that lets
you charge overnight, or whenever you feel like it.

...you can rent a spot, but that's about $500 a month. Usually if you
want amenities, like a charger, they cost you a lot more.

I'm 4.5 hours from NYC and the situation is attrocious!

One apartment building near here charges $100 a month for off street
parking, $125 a month if you want to be in the garage and protected from
rain & snow and then $150 a month if you want a "Premium" spot close to
elevator & stairs. They don't offer charging stations and when they do,
does anyone want to lay odds on them being free?

We can conserve WAY more fuel than all the EVs combined by just
tightening up our fuel economy standards. A 10% increase in fuel economy
would eliminate TWICE AS MUCH CO2 as all the plug-ins on the road
combined, pretending we should care about CO2.

It's a much easier, more economical solution yet it's not even discussed.






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