EV to ICE Transition

[Rick C]

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.

"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"

" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"

"Why does it make so much noise?"

"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens". Now GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way to pay for electrons on multiple networks. It doesn't even include Electrify America. At one point GM was talking about working with Bechtel about a charging network.

I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market this may be straightened out. At least the charging connector is semi-standardized now.

Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C
Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens". Now GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way to pay for electrons on multiple networks. It doesn't even include Electrify America. At one point GM was talking about working with Bechtel about a charging network.
I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market this may be straightened out. At least the charging connector is semi-standardized now.
Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

Chevy Bolt won some "Best of" award for 2021 which naturally infuriated
the Musk fan club.

Tesla is the best EV to get if you're spending $40,000+ on a new car
cash or finance, or want to lease a base trim Model 3 at $6000 down,
$359 a month. That is to say all their products are out of the price
range of 90% of car shoppers.

[bitrex]

Post by bitrex

Everything is perspective.  If EVs were the norm with virtually every
home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same
charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to
ICE.
"Oil change?  Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it?  Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car?  That's at least 10
blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad?  Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe?
Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer
didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens".  Now
GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way
to pay for electrons on multiple networks.  It doesn't even include
Electrify America.  At one point GM was talking about working with
Bechtel about a charging network.
I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market
this may be straightened out.  At least the charging connector is
semi-standardized now.
Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

Chevy Bolt won some "Best of" award for 2021 which naturally infuriated
the Musk fan club.
Tesla is the best EV to get if you're spending $40,000+ on a new car
cash or finance, or want to lease a base trim Model 3 at $6000 down,
$359 a month. That is to say all their products are out of the price
range of 90% of car shoppers.

Forgot to add that Tesla owners seem to prefer it this way, it's a
luxury brand.

[John Larkin]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex

Everything is perspective.  If EVs were the norm with virtually every
home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same
charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to
ICE.
"Oil change?  Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it?  Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car?  That's at least 10
blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad?  Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe?
Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer
didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens".  Now
GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way
to pay for electrons on multiple networks.  It doesn't even include
Electrify America.  At one point GM was talking about working with
Bechtel about a charging network.
I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market
this may be straightened out.  At least the charging connector is
semi-standardized now.
Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

Chevy Bolt won some "Best of" award for 2021 which naturally infuriated
the Musk fan club.
Tesla is the best EV to get if you're spending $40,000+ on a new car
cash or finance, or want to lease a base trim Model 3 at $6000 down,
$359 a month. That is to say all their products are out of the price
range of 90% of car shoppers.

Forgot to add that Tesla owners seem to prefer it this way, it's a
luxury brand.

"These guys are losing money selling cars."

Tesla makes money reselling regulatory credits and gambling on
bitcoins.

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex

Everything is perspective.  If EVs were the norm with virtually every
home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same
charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to
ICE.
"Oil change?  Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it?  Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car?  That's at least 10
blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad?  Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe?
Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer
didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens".  Now
GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way
to pay for electrons on multiple networks.  It doesn't even include
Electrify America.  At one point GM was talking about working with
Bechtel about a charging network.
I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market
this may be straightened out.  At least the charging connector is
semi-standardized now.
Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

Chevy Bolt won some "Best of" award for 2021 which naturally infuriated
the Musk fan club.
Tesla is the best EV to get if you're spending $40,000+ on a new car
cash or finance, or want to lease a base trim Model 3 at $6000 down,
$359 a month. That is to say all their products are out of the price
range of 90% of car shoppers.

Forgot to add that Tesla owners seem to prefer it this way, it's a
luxury brand.

"These guys are losing money selling cars."
Tesla makes money reselling regulatory credits and gambling on
bitcoins.

You can stay in business a long time losing money on selling luxury
cars, though. Lamborghini lost money selling high-end cars for years or
decades, maybe, before VW Gruppe finally bought them out.

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex

Everything is perspective.  If EVs were the norm with virtually every
home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same
charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to
ICE.
"Oil change?  Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it?  Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car?  That's at least 10
blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad?  Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe?
Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"
I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at EVs and the Chevy dealer
didn't have much to say about charging, "Yes, charging happens".  Now
GM is talking about an integrated network even though it is just a way
to pay for electrons on multiple networks.  It doesn't even include
Electrify America.  At one point GM was talking about working with
Bechtel about a charging network.
I guess by the time they have a few serious contenders on the market
this may be straightened out.  At least the charging connector is
semi-standardized now.
Imagine how bad it would be to drive a hydrogen powered car!

Chevy Bolt won some "Best of" award for 2021 which naturally infuriated
the Musk fan club.
Tesla is the best EV to get if you're spending $40,000+ on a new car
cash or finance, or want to lease a base trim Model 3 at $6000 down,
$359 a month. That is to say all their products are out of the price
range of 90% of car shoppers.

Forgot to add that Tesla owners seem to prefer it this way, it's a
luxury brand.

"These guys are losing money selling cars."
Tesla makes money reselling regulatory credits and gambling on
bitcoins.

A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.

But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

[John Doe]

Post by Rick C
I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico

That sounds fun, to hear about.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.

Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!

You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

That is the point where there are so few ICE left on the roads that half the gas stations will have turned into ice cream parlors or 7-11s. I would really like to be in the room when the big chain gas stations are planning their futures.

What I'm really wondering about is if this transition will be like the impact of quartz digital devices on the watch market. It didn't take long at all for the Swiss to lose dominance in the watch market. Something similar could happen with EVs where some automakers simply can't make the transition and fade away.

BTW, it is just plain silly to think the low end EV cost is going to rise in the next 40 years unless there is some major disaster affecting a vital resource. EVs will continue to drop in price for the foreseeable future.

[u***@downunder.com]

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more
expensive than an ICE ?

The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four
motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD
can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few
more power transistors are required for charging.

At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full
with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be
integrated into a single chip.

Post by Rick C
That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.

Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
being activated or at least planned.

[bitrex]

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more
expensive than an ICE ?
The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four
motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD
can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few
more power transistors are required for charging.
At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full
with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be
integrated into a single chip.

Post by Rick C
That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.

Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
being activated or at least planned.

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
the US is about $40,000 as of 2021

<https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>

What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
cars that are quite good not a problem.

But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

[bitrex]

Post by bitrex

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C

Post by bitrex
What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

What makes you think that in the long run the EV would be more
expensive than an ICE ?
The EV drive train can be much simpler. You just need two or four
motors directly at the wheels, driven by 2-4 VFDs. Ultimately a VFD
can be made with a single IC controlling a few big IGBT/FETs. A few
more power transistors are required for charging.
At least in some pictures of Tesla electronics contained big PCBs full
with components, no wonder it costs so much, Most of it could be
integrated into a single chip.

That is such a silly thing to say.  If it's so terrible, why would
anyone make low end cars at all?  Simple, that's where the volume
is.  Very few car companies make only high end cars.  For every
$50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold.  Right now
people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US
at $20,000.

Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

Again, rather silly thing to say.  It's very easy to get out of a car
market, just stop making those cars!
You totally miss the point.  In even just 5 years, EVs won't be
"cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points.  In 10
years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper
than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the
cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
being activated or at least planned.

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
<https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>
What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
cars that are quite good not a problem.
But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

I don't think cars aren't quite the same situation as like laptop PCs
and cell phones where economies of scale lower the price so much over 10
years that the average consumer is like "Oh you can get one for $500
now? Well I'll buy three instead of one."

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C

You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
being activated or at least planned.

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
<https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>

This is a case where the average is not a good number to consider. Better would be the mode or even the median or actually, none of the above. Look at the car that sells the most. Even that is bogus as they group a wide range of styles into one model name with very different pricing.

Post by bitrex
What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
cars that are quite good not a problem.
But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

There's a good reason why you aren't in the auto manufacturing business.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 00:02:40 -0700 (PDT), Rick C

You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.

The most expensive component in an EV is the battery, but I expect the
price will go down, when new mines and battery factories are currently
being activated or at least planned.

There are a few sub-$20,000 cars. The average sale price of a new car in
the US is about $40,000 as of 2021
<https://www.financialsamurai.com/average-new-car-price/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20valuation%20analysts,0.3%25)%20from%20last%20month.>

This is a case where the average is not a good number to consider. Better would be the mode or even the median or actually, none of the above. Look at the car that sells the most. Even that is bogus as they group a wide range of styles into one model name with very different pricing.

One wonders how high the average sale price of a new car would have to
go up until "all numbers are bogus" ceases to be a good explanation. The
"car" that sells the most in the US is the Ford F-150 and its average
sale price is $47,000. You can buy a $30,000 F-150 but the number they
sell a year of the base trim is tiny.

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
What I'm saying is that yeah I think in 5-10 years the price on
components may come down enough that you can bang out $25,000 electric
cars that are quite good not a problem.
But the $25,000-car-buyer market segment effectively won't exist, there
will be more-or-less two types of new car buyer, those who can afford to
pay $50,000 for a new car, and those who can afford to pay
asymptotically $0 for a new car. So why are we trying to target the $0
market segment when we can just price it at $50,000.

There's a good reason why you aren't in the auto manufacturing business.

Yeah, I don't have the capacity to be endlessly full of shit the way
Elon Musk is, I'm not a good fit for the job, lol.

Tesla-cultism is weird. They really think this guy has got the future of
transport all figured out and it's not just a bunch of flailing around.

<Loading Image...>

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

What makes you think anyone will ever make an EV under 20k for domestic
sale? The low end of the market particularly cars is a thankless job and
margins are thin.

That is such a silly thing to say. If it's so terrible, why would anyone make low end cars at all? Simple, that's where the volume is. Very few car companies make only high end cars. For every $50,000 car sold there are a lot more $20,000 cars sold. Right now people are buying $35-$40,000 cars because there are none in the US at $20,000.

Post by bitrex
Aside from some brands like Mitsubishi and Daewoo and some of the
Chinese and Indian producers for purchase in those countries that's a
market segment everyone else want to get out of, not get into. New car
prices for cutting-edge cars go _up_, they don't go _down_.

Again, rather silly thing to say. It's very easy to get out of a car market, just stop making those cars!
You totally miss the point. In even just 5 years, EVs won't be "cutting edge" anymore and it will be about price points. In 10 years batteries will have advanced enough that an EV will be cheaper than an ICE for anything other than the lowest priced cars and the cost of operating an EV will more than make up for that easily.
That is the point where there are so few ICE left on the roads that half the gas stations will have turned into ice cream parlors or 7-11s. I would really like to be in the room when the big chain gas stations are planning their futures.
What I'm really wondering about is if this transition will be like the impact of quartz digital devices on the watch market. It didn't take long at all for the Swiss to lose dominance in the watch market. Something similar could happen with EVs where some automakers simply can't make the transition and fade away.
BTW, it is just plain silly to think the low end EV cost is going to rise in the next 40 years unless there is some major disaster affecting a vital resource. EVs will continue to drop in price for the foreseeable future.

"There is also evidence that suggests the price gap between electric
cars and gas-powered cars is closing even more. According to Quartz, the
average cost of a new car in June 2019 in the U.S. was $36,600. This was
a 2% increase from the year before. However, according to data from Cox
Automotive, the average cost of an electric vehicle decreased from
$64,300 to $55,600: a 13.4% decrease from the year before. And this drop
would be even more pronounced if most manufacturers were not still
focusing on making luxury electric vehicles."

<https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31544842/how-much-is-an-electric-car/>

I think it's a big leap to extrapolate 64k down to 55k, to 55k down to 35k.

Cuz I think the reason most manufacturers are focusing on luxury EVs is
they don't see that much money to be made at the low end, at least not
for first-world sale. So long as gas prices stay relatively low the
financial motivation isn't there, and Americans buy cars as much on
image as they do on pragmatism; the market for bare-bones cars is small
outside of fleets. A $25,000 EV is going to have significant compromises
made to hit that price point no way around it.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
are today.

They'll be replaced for most people with transport-as-a-service,
self-driving taxis, mass transit, bicycles, or walking, depending. For
the majority of the world's population this will probably be an
improvement as they've never owned a personal automobile anyway and
chances are they never will.

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
are today.

That is entirely realistic. There are no small number of people in cities who don't have cars and use one of the car services to share cars for shopping or whatever. Once cars are self driving this will be greatly enhanced by the cars not needing to sit around waiting for someone in the local area to come to them like rental vehicles. Instead the cars will operate like taxis coming to the user.

Not saying this will be any time soon. I think Elon said it would be the end of 2020 which was BS clearly. But maybe in 5 or 10 years. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Post by bitrex
They'll be replaced for most people with transport-as-a-service,
self-driving taxis, mass transit, bicycles, or walking, depending. For
the majority of the world's population this will probably be an
improvement as they've never owned a personal automobile anyway and
chances are they never will.

Maybe. But if you can't afford to own a car, you likely can't afford to use/share a car very often either. Mass transit is about the low cost end of transportation and that's still not inexpensive. But in comparison to owning a car it is cheaper.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
A real Marxist would be uninterested in what car any particular person
drives; whether they drive a zero-emissions luxury Tesla that makes them
feel good about saving the Earth or an F-450 that gets 4 mpg, or whether
they use paper or plastic at the store because the glossy sign tells
them it's better to use paper. It's of no interest to them. "Fuck the
machines, we want the machines that are making them" is an expression.
But since I would be unlikely to be a very good Marxist by any measure I
will continue to drive my "budget"-priced not-electric, not-gas sedan
like the snob I am. or whatever.

Whenever people talk about driving a Tesla because they want to "virtue signal" or whatever, I realize they have never driven a Tesla, not in a meaningful way. I'm looking at relocation to Puerto Rico and I was thinking I'd leave the car here, but transporting the car is not that much money. It's a nice car in so many ways. By the time the Harleys can't find a gas station within range EVs will be under $20,000 and the fuel savings will be enough that no one can afford to drive an ICE.

An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
are today.

That is entirely realistic. There are no small number of people in cities who don't have cars and use one of the car services to share cars for shopping or whatever. Once cars are self driving this will be greatly enhanced by the cars not needing to sit around waiting for someone in the local area to come to them like rental vehicles. Instead the cars will operate like taxis coming to the user.
Not saying this will be any time soon. I think Elon said it would be the end of 2020 which was BS clearly. But maybe in 5 or 10 years. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Sort of assumes there's anyone really trying to solve any kind of
overarching "problem" in the auto industry. There are car companies,
they make cars and they want to sell cars. The one that make gas cars
and electric cars would like to sell a lot of gas and electric cars. The
ones that just make electric cars like Tesla would like to sell a lot of
those. The "problem" is how do we make next year's model so that we make
more money on it than the previous one, or for Tesla just how do we
consistently make some cash selling cars.

IMO they're not really deeply invested in this long term
shift-the-paradigm stuff despite all the PR to the contrary, they wanna
sell cars. That's what they do. If at some point it seems more
profitable to do something else they may do that but not before. If the
paradigm shifts then it shifts, if it don't it don't, they finally don't
have the power to shape how the future goes as much as is popularly
imagined by the PR-bedazzled public.

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex
They'll be replaced for most people with transport-as-a-service,
self-driving taxis, mass transit, bicycles, or walking, depending. For
the majority of the world's population this will probably be an
improvement as they've never owned a personal automobile anyway and
chances are they never will.

Maybe. But if you can't afford to own a car, you likely can't afford to use/share a car very often either. Mass transit is about the low cost end of transportation and that's still not inexpensive. But in comparison to owning a car it is cheaper.

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
are today.

That is entirely realistic. There are no small number of people in cities who don't have cars and use one of the car services to share cars for shopping or whatever. Once cars are self driving this will be greatly enhanced by the cars not needing to sit around waiting for someone in the local area to come to them like rental vehicles. Instead the cars will operate like taxis coming to the user.
Not saying this will be any time soon. I think Elon said it would be the end of 2020 which was BS clearly. But maybe in 5 or 10 years. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Sort of assumes there's anyone really trying to solve any kind of
overarching "problem" in the auto industry. There are car companies,
they make cars and they want to sell cars. The one that make gas cars
and electric cars would like to sell a lot of gas and electric cars. The
ones that just make electric cars like Tesla would like to sell a lot of
those. The "problem" is how do we make next year's model so that we make
more money on it than the previous one, or for Tesla just how do we
consistently make some cash selling cars.
IMO they're not really deeply invested in this long term
shift-the-paradigm stuff despite all the PR to the contrary, they wanna
sell cars.

Yes, that's why I mentioned the paradigm shift example of watches in the first place. There will be auto companies (and other, auto related businesses) that simply do not shift weight onto the other foot quickly enough and end up stuck in the mud. The automotive industry has many, many failed companies that get bought up or just disappear. Usually it is the smaller ones, but sometimes the large ones don't keep up and become small ones that are swallowed up.

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

[Ed Lee]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex
An alternative take that's not any more or less plausible than that Elon
Musk fever-dream: The age of the personal automobile is ending. Personal
automobiles will become the playthings of the very wealthy like horses
are today.

That is entirely realistic. There are no small number of people in cities who don't have cars and use one of the car services to share cars for shopping or whatever. Once cars are self driving this will be greatly enhanced by the cars not needing to sit around waiting for someone in the local area to come to them like rental vehicles. Instead the cars will operate like taxis coming to the user.
Not saying this will be any time soon. I think Elon said it would be the end of 2020 which was BS clearly. But maybe in 5 or 10 years. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Sort of assumes there's anyone really trying to solve any kind of
overarching "problem" in the auto industry. There are car companies,
they make cars and they want to sell cars. The one that make gas cars
and electric cars would like to sell a lot of gas and electric cars. The
ones that just make electric cars like Tesla would like to sell a lot of
those. The "problem" is how do we make next year's model so that we make
more money on it than the previous one, or for Tesla just how do we
consistently make some cash selling cars.
IMO they're not really deeply invested in this long term
shift-the-paradigm stuff despite all the PR to the contrary, they wanna
sell cars.

Yes, that's why I mentioned the paradigm shift example of watches in the first place. There will be auto companies (and other, auto related businesses) that simply do not shift weight onto the other foot quickly enough and end up stuck in the mud. The automotive industry has many, many failed companies that get bought up or just disappear. Usually it is the smaller ones, but sometimes the large ones don't keep up and become small ones that are swallowed up.
Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

[Rick C]

Post by Ed Lee

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

Huh? Automakers like Tesla??? GM has talked about teaming with Bechtel to build their own charging network. They can do pretty much anything they want. The government's interest is in getting them all to cooperate and combine forces. The company's interest is in finding ways of making their cars more appealing. These two things are in conflict.

Post by Ed Lee

One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

It's not that way with the Tesla network. They are close enough you can skip one, or two or even three depending on the area you are in. Maybe not so much in North Dakota at the moment, but even in Texas you can go anywhere with less than 130 miles between chargers... other than maybe Lubbock. On the Vegas trip chargers are 50 miles apart. Even your car could make it while skipping a charger... wait, no, maybe not.

I'm not clear on why you say this actually. When I check on Plugshare they show CCS and Chademo at the same locations. What's the problem? Anyone driving an EV they should be driving outside of town can skip one or even two chargers on the route to Las Vegas.

[Ed Lee]

Post by Ed Lee

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

Huh? Automakers like Tesla??? GM has talked about teaming with Bechtel to build their own charging network. They can do pretty much anything they want. The government's interest is in getting them all to cooperate and combine forces. The company's interest is in finding ways of making their cars more appealing. These two things are in conflict.

Post by Ed Lee

One of the nice things about being in California is the way the state supports EV charging. Some locations have regulations that an apartment renter has the right to install an EV charger if they pay for it. With time this won't be required as it will become an expected feature of apartment living like the laundry room. It will only be after charging is routine that EVs will dominate.

it's now mostly free and clear charging all the way to Vegas. But if one of the rest area station is down, EV drivers would be stranged. I will definitely make a trip in next few weeks, but only after getting AAA service. (4x 100 miles towings for $100).

It's not that way with the Tesla network. They are close enough you can skip one, or two or even three depending on the area you are in. Maybe not so much in North Dakota at the moment, but even in Texas you can go anywhere with less than 130 miles between chargers... other than maybe Lubbock. On the Vegas trip chargers are 50 miles apart. Even your car could make it while skipping a charger... wait, no, maybe not.
I'm not clear on why you say this actually. When I check on Plugshare they show CCS and Chademo at the same locations. What's the problem? Anyone driving an EV they should be driving outside of town can skip one or even two chargers on the route to Las Vegas.

The one half way up the mountain. Distance is deceptive. Skipping it down hill might be possible, but not going up hill.

[u***@downunder.com]

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 07:26:56 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

In the US, are there really separate gas stations only for GM and
others only for VW ICE vehicles ??

Why should there be different EV charging stations for different car
makers ?

Post by Ed Lee
Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

AC charging is pretty simple with the national voltages and AC
currents limited available at each site.

The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.

A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

[John Larkin]

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 07:26:56 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

In the US, are there really separate gas stations only for GM and
others only for VW ICE vehicles ??
Why should there be different EV charging stations for different car
makers ?

Post by Ed Lee
Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

AC charging is pretty simple with the national voltages and AC
currents limited available at each site.
The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.
A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 10:55:26 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.

https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/

kw

[u***@downunder.com]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

The opening picture seems to show about a 10x10 m solar panel, so that
100 m2 area and thus about 10 kW peak electric output. Thus it would
slowly charge the car in the picture, but not much else :-).

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 11:52:08 UTC-7, ***@downunder.com wrote:
...

Post by u***@downunder.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

The opening picture seems to show about a 10x10 m solar panel, so that
100 m2 area and thus about 10 kW peak electric output. Thus it would
slowly charge the car in the picture, but not much else :-).

They are not necessarily the only solar panels but is also the reason such stations are backed up with battery storage to provide higher power charging to the EVs than is available from the solar panels.

I gather currently even the ones with solar are powered jointly from the grid. The combination of solar, battery and grid does serve to reduce the peak power (reduces demand charges) as well as the amount of grid energy required even if it does not provide al the power required, especially at peak times.

[John Larkin]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.

Do the math.

[[e-mail]]

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

This is a 40kW array, it's fine for low-power charging many cars that
are sitting around at the dealer even in New England wintertime.

<Loading Image...>

For fast charging you'll need bulk storage with an array this size. But
you don't have high throughput in a rural area so how much bulk storage
do you really need? a couple car-battery of bulk storage is probably
sufficient for many places.

[u***@downunder.com]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

This is a 40kW array, it's fine for low-power charging many cars that
are sitting around at the dealer even in New England wintertime.
<https://solect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Herb-Connolly-Chevy-solar-energy-small.jpg>
For fast charging you'll need bulk storage with an array this size. But
you don't have high throughput in a rural area so how much bulk storage
do you really need? a couple car-battery of bulk storage is probably
sufficient for many places.

That array has a far too low tilt at least for New England and other
high latitude places. In periods of thick clouds, very little power is
available. With such low tilt, you also need to manually remove any
snow from the panels.

The claimed 40 kWp is available only for a few hours a day, perhaps
less than 8 hours (for a fixed array) so the daily average energy is
about 300 kWh/24 h or 12 kW charging power on average.

Thus, that array could fully charge three empty 100 kWh Teslas a day
or 10-30 partially depleted ordinary cars. Those cars seen in the
picture might be charged in a day with fixed backup batteries. Good
for a motel parking lot, but not for a service station.

[bitrex]

Post by u***@downunder.com

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

This is a 40kW array, it's fine for low-power charging many cars that
are sitting around at the dealer even in New England wintertime.
<https://solect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Herb-Connolly-Chevy-solar-energy-small.jpg>
For fast charging you'll need bulk storage with an array this size. But
you don't have high throughput in a rural area so how much bulk storage
do you really need? a couple car-battery of bulk storage is probably
sufficient for many places.

That array has a far too low tilt at least for New England and other
high latitude places. In periods of thick clouds, very little power is
available. With such low tilt, you also need to manually remove any
snow from the panels.

"High latitude"? Boston is at the same latitude as Barcelona, Spain, and
sunny days/year is on par with the national average at around 200.

It's not Germany! The difference between a 5 degree tilt and a 30 degree
tilt is probably under 10%.

Post by u***@downunder.com
The claimed 40 kWp is available only for a few hours a day, perhaps
less than 8 hours (for a fixed array) so the daily average energy is
about 300 kWh/24 h or 12 kW charging power on average.
Thus, that array could fully charge three empty 100 kWh Teslas a day
or 10-30 partially depleted ordinary cars. Those cars seen in the
picture might be charged in a day with fixed backup batteries. Good
for a motel parking lot, but not for a service station.

[u***@downunder.com]

Post by bitrex

Post by u***@downunder.com

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

This is a 40kW array, it's fine for low-power charging many cars that
are sitting around at the dealer even in New England wintertime.
<https://solect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Herb-Connolly-Chevy-solar-energy-small.jpg>
For fast charging you'll need bulk storage with an array this size. But
you don't have high throughput in a rural area so how much bulk storage
do you really need? a couple car-battery of bulk storage is probably
sufficient for many places.

That array has a far too low tilt at least for New England and other
high latitude places. In periods of thick clouds, very little power is
available. With such low tilt, you also need to manually remove any
snow from the panels.

"High latitude"? Boston is at the same latitude as Barcelona, Spain, and
sunny days/year is on par with the national average at around 200.

Boston is at 42 N, thus the sun is on average during noon at 90-42=58
degrees. The maximum at summer noon is 58+23=81 degrees and winter
noon 58-23=35 degrees. For maximum output at noon, the panels should
be tilted 9 degrees (summer), 42 degrees (spring/fall) and 55 degrees
(winter).

With 200 clear days is just 55 % of full power days in a year.

Post by bitrex
It's not Germany! The difference between a 5 degree tilt and a 30 degree
tilt is probably under 10%.

Using panel tilt optimized for summer (100 %), will give 92 % during
spring/fall and 69 % during winter. The reverse situation occurs with
panels optimized for winter condition.

In practice, the drop is even worse due to the anti-reflective
coatings on many panels attenuating further off-axis radiation.

Aiming panels for spring/fall will drop the output to 92 % during
summer/winter.

[j***@highlandsniptechnology.com]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

This is a 40kW array, it's fine for low-power charging many cars that
are sitting around at the dealer even in New England wintertime.
<https://solect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Herb-Connolly-Chevy-solar-energy-small.jpg>

40 KW how many hours per day? How about winter? Does it snow there?

It might charge all those cars in about 2 weeks in good weather.

That panel might product $20 worth of electricity per day. I wonder
what it cost.

Post by bitrex
For fast charging you'll need bulk storage with an array this size.

Yes. Do the math.

Post by bitrex
But
you don't have high throughput in a rural area so how much bulk storage
do you really need? a couple car-battery of bulk storage is probably
sufficient for many places.

Gas stations have overhead. They want to sell drinks and chips and
jerky, and have rest rooms. That doesn't scale in the down direction.

We don't have dozens of tiny 1-pump gas stations in rural areas.

[[e-mail]]

Post by John Larkin
...
Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

They have more knowledge, information and awareness of the compromises than you can get by Googling.

They also have objectives that go beyond what they publicize; They may decide to implement something that on the face of it is not practical or cost-effective just to gain experience.

kw

[j***@highlandsniptechnology.com]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com

Post by John Larkin
...
Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.

If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.

If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?

Do that in your head.

[bitrex]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com

Post by John Larkin
...
Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panals and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.
If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.
If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?
Do that in your head.

There's no sunlight for three weeks?! North pole charger?

[Bill Sloman]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com

...
Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panels and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.
If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.
If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?
Do that in your head.

John Larkin's head doesn't seem to have room for windmills.

And he seems to think that anything smaller than a megawatt power line would be useless. As soon as the charging station has enough storage capacity let cars charge quickly, it has enough to let it charge up that storage capacity overnight - which isn't going to take megawatts.

[Rick C]

Post by Bill Sloman

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com

...
Without power lines, the rural stations will need solar panels and
batteries. That will get interesting in winter.
Do the math.

And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.
If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.
If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?
Do that in your head.

John Larkin's head doesn't seem to have room for windmills.
And he seems to think that anything smaller than a megawatt power line would be useless. As soon as the charging station has enough storage capacity let cars charge quickly, it has enough to let it charge up that storage capacity overnight - which isn't going to take megawatts.

He also doesn't understand that 99% of EV charging will be done at home or at work putting zero strain on the distribution and generation networks. They will simply use excess capacity sitting idle.

[chris]

On 05/01/21 04:26, Bill Sloman wrote:

<snipped>

Post by Bill Sloman
John Larkin's head doesn't seem to have room for windmills.

They only work when there is wind, and the overall load factor
is depressingly low.

Post by Bill Sloman
And he seems to think that anything smaller than a megawatt power line would be useless. As soon as the charging station has

enough storage capacity let cars charge quickly, it has enough to let it
charge up that storage capacity overnight - which isn't going to take
megawatts.
Well, you can't get more power out than you put in and that's
before taking account of inefficiency and power loss in conversion.

You would need a whole load of hv infrastructure in place for
mass charging of electric vehicles, which will take years to
get together and who will pay for that ?.

Waving arms around won't change basic engineering reality...

[Rick C]

Post by chris
You would need a whole load of hv infrastructure in place for
mass charging of electric vehicles, which will take years to
get together and who will pay for that ?.

I get so tired of hearing such misinformation from people who should know better. Look at the daily demand curve and explain to me why huge numbers of EVs can't be charged when the demand is not 100% of available capacity? The only reason to build any sort of new infrastructure is if all EVs were charged 24/7. They aren't. Unlike the long lines a gas stations when people want to fill up for a weekend trip EVs can be charged the night before when 50% of the generating and transmission capacity is idle.

Try to understand that before you continue to post meaningless comments about HV infrastructure.

Post by chris
Waving arms around won't change basic engineering reality...

So maybe you should put your arms down now.

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 19:42:14 UTC-7, ***@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
...

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.

Probably not, without the needed information.

What have politicians got to do with it anyway? - Tesla is a private company

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.

Probably more as they may be lower density. But weight is not very important in a stationery battery.

Some are "second-life" batteries that have already been used in cars. Or ones that don't meet testing requirements for use in cars.

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?
Do that in your head.

...
Why 50 cars a day, why 3 weeks of darkness?

Temperature is not a big issue for large batteries. In a stationery installation the large mass together with thermal insulation will keep them adequately warm. Lithium-ion batteries don't freeze till about -30C.

Do you know how much batteries cost Tesla? There have been many estimates but Tesla does not divulge the details.

As I stated before many of the charging stations do have grid connectivity but the batteries reduce the demand charges that increase the fees for power. With supplemental grid power the station can ride out periods of low insolation.

You don't even know how much Tesla is charged for power, what contracts it has been able to arrange. Maybe it is selling power to the utility as well to get double use out of its batteries?

There is a great deal of information that you don't have that is not publicly available to do the calculations yourself.

kw

[Rick C]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
And you think you can do the math better than the engineers who designs these systems?

I can do it better than the politicians.

Probably not, without the needed information.
What have politicians got to do with it anyway? - Tesla is a private company

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
If a car battery is to be charged from a stationary battery, the
batteries will weigh about the same.

Probably more as they may be lower density. But weight is not very important in a stationery battery.
Some are "second-life" batteries that have already been used in cars. Or ones that don't meet testing requirements for use in cars.

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
If a car battery weighs 1000 lbs, and a station has to store enough
energy to charge 50 cars per day, and it's cold and dark for three
weeks, how heavy is the station battery? What does it cost?
Do that in your head.

...
Why 50 cars a day, why 3 weeks of darkness?
Temperature is not a big issue for large batteries. In a stationery installation the large mass together with thermal insulation will keep them adequately warm. Lithium-ion batteries don't freeze till about -30C.
Do you know how much batteries cost Tesla? There have been many estimates but Tesla does not divulge the details.
As I stated before many of the charging stations do have grid connectivity but the batteries reduce the demand charges that increase the fees for power. With supplemental grid power the station can ride out periods of low insolation.
You don't even know how much Tesla is charged for power, what contracts it has been able to arrange. Maybe it is selling power to the utility as well to get double use out of its batteries?
There is a great deal of information that you don't have that is not publicly available to do the calculations yourself.

The solar and batteries at EV charging stations is not about providing all the power to charge cars. It's about reducing the demand charges. Maybe someday all EVs will be charged 100% from solar, but that will take some time and a lot of construction. With the rate of EV introduction continuing to increase, the rate of installation of solar for EV charging will be working double time to catch up.

[Rick C]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

Tesla is using solar to avoid this.
https://electrek.co/2021/04/27/tesla-power-all-superchargers-with-renewable-energy-this-year/
kw

Or they can put superchargers near the solar farms.

https://tinyurl.com/5cwwkt7j

[u***@downunder.com]

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:55:15 -0700, John Larkin

Post by John Larkin

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 07:26:56 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Pretty much the entire auto industry was caught on the wrong foot once by not having serious design efforts into battery EVs and they continue to play catch up in the rest of the EV paradigm. Even GM who brought an affordable EV to market ahead of Tesla's model 3 did it without the faintest glimmer of charging support by GM. That's why I talk about my visit to the Chevy dealer and the mention of "charging happens" as their lack of support. Here it is three years later and GM is finally grasping the concept that an EV requires a *total* solution. Auto makers have to be involved in the charging as well as the manufacturing and servicing.

In the US, are there really separate gas stations only for GM and
others only for VW ICE vehicles ??
Why should there be different EV charging stations for different car
makers ?

Post by Ed Lee
Auto makers have to lobby government effort for charging, but not directly involved.

AC charging is pretty simple with the national voltages and AC
currents limited available at each site.
The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.
A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

What is the typical rural MV feed voltage in the US, is it 4 kV or 14
kV ?

While the current electric demand would justify a much thinner MV feed
lines, but to get a sufficient mechanical strength, a thicker wire
sizes need to be used, so at least on 14 kV, a few 100 kW chargers
could be supported along the line.

In rural Australia and some parts of Africa, the single phase, single
wire with ground return is used, which doesn't support much extra
load.

[Rick C]

Post by John Larkin
Running many miles of megawatt feeds to rural stations could get
expensive.

You mean like Quartzsite, AZ? No way they can install a bunch of Superchargers in a place so remote.

https://bit.ly/3gWDwz1

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 10:30:25 UTC-7, ***@downunder.com wrote:
...

Post by u***@downunder.com
The fast DC charging situation is more problematic due to different
battery voltages in EVs. While 400 Vdc seems to pretty common voltage
these days, but some manufacturers already use 800 Vdc, so the fast
charging stations need to be able to adjust to these voltages.

Not necessarily.

To get the highest speed of charging the station needs to adapt but existing 800V system EVs (Porsche and Kia) can also charge from 400V.

The latest version of the Combined Charging standard supports from 350-1000V at up to 400A. (500kW maximum power) to allow both 400V and 800V cars to be charged.

Post by u***@downunder.com
A fast charging station (50-100 kW) will need a close by MV (medium
voltage 14-20 kV) feed, so this will increase the cost of a fast
charging station and hence the cost of electricity.

Usually, this is true but even then the cost per mile (both in energy and Dollars) when using an EV is significantly less than when using Gasoline.

Tesla has announced that they are building stations where the power is from local solar power. (Probably with local battery storage).

Battery storage is also used for some charging stations using wired power to smooth the demand, minimize demand fees and the capacity of any grid connection required.

kw

[Ed Lee]

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?

1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.

2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.

I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.

I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

[bitrex]

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

First gen Chevy Volt had a "polite horn" on the end of the turn signal
lever that just went "Beep beep boop" instead of the typically
aggressive Chevy horn.

It was removed for the second gen IDK why, nobody hears the "air
conditioner" generated noise very well.

In the final model year they again changed it to some kind of New Age music:

I'd still like the beep-booper back though. Move on, move on, move on:

http://youtu.be/63_i3mZ7Rkk

But as engineers we can install something like that ourselves:

[bitrex]

Post by bitrex

On Thursday, April 29, 2021 at 9:46:15 AM UTC-7,

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every
home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same
charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch
to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road.  I had
to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking
forward.  I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch
her attention.  Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

First gen Chevy Volt had a "polite horn" on the end of the turn signal
lever that just went "Beep beep boop" instead of the typically
aggressive Chevy horn.
It was removed for the second gen IDK why, nobody hears the "air
conditioner" generated noise very well.
http://youtu.be/63_i3mZ7Rkk
http://youtu.be/63_i3mZ7Rkk

Sorry this link should be:

[John Larkin]

On Thu, 29 Apr 2021 12:14:43 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.

There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin
On Thu, 29 Apr 2021 12:14:43 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Sounds like nonsense. Does it pull data from the CANBUS on "throttle"
position, motor load, velocity and torque etc. and run a virtual engine
blending sound files to generate the audio?

Not an unsolvable problem and It's likely some automaker has a patent on
an implementation but doesn't sound cheap as an aftermarket product.

Post by John Larkin
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Like probably not the _only_ reason...

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Like probably not the _only_ reason...

For plenty of them it is. Absolutely.

[Rick C]

Post by John Larkin
On Thu, 29 Apr 2021 12:14:43 -0700 (PDT), Ed Lee

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has to listen to.

But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another. Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas trailer behind.

[John Doe]

Post by Rick C

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

[j***@highlandsniptechnology.com]

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe

Post by John Doe

Post by Rick C

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.

This could be Tesla's perfect storm:

All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.

Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.

There's not enough lithium to make batteries.

Bitcoin tanks.

Solar City keeps collapsing.

[bitrex]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe

Post by John Doe

Post by Rick C

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.
All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.
Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
Bitcoin tanks.
Solar City keeps collapsing.

"We will coup whoever we want":

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

[Ed Lee]

Post by bitrex

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe

Post by John Doe

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.
All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.
Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
Bitcoin tanks.
Solar City keeps collapsing.

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.

When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

[bitrex]

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe

Post by John Doe

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.
All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.
Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
Bitcoin tanks.
Solar City keeps collapsing.

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.

Yeah, something weird is happening with direct image links to Reddit for
me /shrug

Post by Ed Lee
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

[Rick C]

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

[Ed Lee]

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

Digging the tunnel itself is relatively cheap, but planning all the escape routes and/or entrance/exit right of way will be expensive, especially at the strip. I read that they currently only have two points between the convention center and the south (near the airport?). Well, perhaps some people would go straight to the convention center after their flight, but most want to go to hotels first.

In case of accident, you can't expect people to walk a mile out of the tunnel.

[Bill Sloman]

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

Digging the tunnel itself is relatively cheap, but planning all the escape routes and/or entrance/exit right of way will be expensive, especially at the strip. I read that they currently only have two points between the convention center and the south (near the airport?). Well, perhaps some people would go straight to the convention center after their flight, but most want to go to hotels first.

Ed Lee doesn't seem to have read anything about the Cross Channel Tunnel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel

It's two parallel tunnels, cross-connected from time to time. Escape routes up through the English Channel don't seem to be on offer.

In case of accident, you can't expect people to walk a mile out of the tunnel.

But you can expect them to walk across to a parallel tunnel, and step onto a train there.

[Ed Lee]

Post by Bill Sloman

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

Digging the tunnel itself is relatively cheap, but planning all the escape routes and/or entrance/exit right of way will be expensive, especially at the strip. I read that they currently only have two points between the convention center and the south (near the airport?). Well, perhaps some people would go straight to the convention center after their flight, but most want to go to hotels first.

Ed Lee doesn't seem to have read anything about the Cross Channel Tunnel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel

Does Bill Slowman even know what we are talking about?

Post by Bill Sloman
It's two parallel tunnels, cross-connected from time to time. Escape routes up through the English Channel don't seem to be on offer.

In case of accident, you can't expect people to walk a mile out of the tunnel.

But you can expect them to walk across to a parallel tunnel, and step onto a train there.

What train?

[Bill Sloman]

Post by Bill Sloman

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

Digging the tunnel itself is relatively cheap, but planning all the escape routes and/or entrance/exit right of way will be expensive, especially at the strip. I read that they currently only have two points between the convention center and the south (near the airport?). Well, perhaps some people would go straight to the convention center after their flight, but most want to go to hotels first.

Ed Lee doesn't seem to have read anything about the Cross Channel Tunnel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel.

Does Bill Sloman even know what we are talking about?

Since Ed Lee never seems to know much about what he talks about, he does need to ask.

Post by Bill Sloman
It's two parallel tunnels, cross-connected from time to time. Escape routes up through the English Channel don't seem to be on offer.

In case of accident, you can't expect people to walk a mile out of the tunnel.

But you can expect them to walk across to a parallel tunnel, and step onto a train there.

What train?

The Cross Channel Tunnel is a railway-only tunnel. A train is the only thing they are likely to be offered to step onto.

[Ed Lee]

Post by Bill Sloman

Post by Bill Sloman

Post by Ed Lee

Post by bitrex
<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

The links are all the same.
When the right is done with all the safety upgrades in compliant with regulations, it will cost the same as the left.

Not true, tunnels are always more expensive than above ground rail. The problem is you can't put above ground rail in dense areas that are already built up. That's why they put the extra money into running rail below ground. Musk seems to think he can high tech underground transport to make it better than rail in some manner. Since the places people want to go between in large numbers are high density areas, allowing you to travel between them in your own cars is not so useful. Using robotaxis as public transport can make sense, but we are a long way off yet.

Digging the tunnel itself is relatively cheap, but planning all the escape routes and/or entrance/exit right of way will be expensive, especially at the strip. I read that they currently only have two points between the convention center and the south (near the airport?). Well, perhaps some people would go straight to the convention center after their flight, but most want to go to hotels first.

Ed Lee doesn't seem to have read anything about the Cross Channel Tunnel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_Tunnel.

Does Bill Sloman even know what we are talking about?

Since Ed Lee never seems to know much about what he talks about, he does need to ask.

Post by Bill Sloman
It's two parallel tunnels, cross-connected from time to time. Escape routes up through the English Channel don't seem to be on offer.

In case of accident, you can't expect people to walk a mile out of the tunnel.

But you can expect them to walk across to a parallel tunnel, and step onto a train there.

What train?

The Cross Channel Tunnel is a railway-only tunnel. A train is the only thing they are likely to be offered to step onto.

That's not what we are talking about, idiot.

[bitrex]

Post by bitrex

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 05:09:23 -0000 (UTC), John Doe

Post by John Doe

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly.  It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer
sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land.   Well, except for the
yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys.  In ten years or so you'll have to drive so
far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range.  I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.
All the enthusiasts have one, and 20% of more normal people try to
sell theirs to get gas cars.
Tesla runs out of federal energy credits to resell.
There's not enough lithium to make batteries.
Bitcoin tanks.
Solar City keeps collapsing.

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

Something weird going on with Reddit direct image links. Original story:

<https://www.carscoops.com/2021/03/bolivian-president-accuses-elon-musk-and-tesla-of-being-involved-in-countrys-2019-coup/#lg=1&slide=0>

[whit3rd]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.

Too complicated. A cell call to a mobile service with a charger takes three ounces of hardware
that you probably already have.

[Rick C]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.

Too complicated. A cell call to a mobile service with a charger takes three ounces of hardware
that you probably already have.

You are feeding the troll. Running out of charge is like running out of gas. It almost never happens, so talking about it is just spreading FUD. Like everything else the troll talks about, he just wants to have an argument he can win by tossing a few turds in the soup bowl and not actually discuss significant matters.

[u***@downunder.com]

Post by j***@highlandsniptechnology.com
Electric cars can keep a Honda generator and a couple of cans of gas
in the trunk, and a picnic lunch and maybe sleeping bags for the
charging stop.

Congratulation, you have (re)invented the series hybrid car :-).

[bitrex]

Post by John Doe

Post by Rick C

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly. It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land. Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys. In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range. I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

"we will coup whoever we want"

<<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

Like I would ever buy any of this guy's products. He can go fuck a
donkey's dickhole.

[bitrex]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Doe

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.
I wonder if the Tesla is an enthusiasts car, like the PT Cruiser. Once
everyone who wanted a Cruiser had one, sales stopped. Other cars, like
Smarts and Miatas, had similar popularity/fad dynamics. And those
halfway pickup truck things.
There's an electric Harley, which is silent. Don't people buy hogs to
make noise?

Exactly.  It is just a matter of time before gas stations no longer sell
gas, truck stops will not sell diesel, the air will clear and the
silence of life will settle over the land.   Well, except for the yahoos
raising hell a few doors down with their loud music the entire cove has
to listen to.
But it won't be Harleys.  In ten years or so you'll have to drive so far
to buy gas that a Harley can't make it from one station to another.
Motorcycles usually don't have much range.  I guess one could tow a gas
trailer behind.

That's weird...

"we will coup whoever we want"
<<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>
Like I would ever buy any of this guy's products. He can go fuck a
donkey's dickhole.

Oops, wrong link, though the previous is an amusing one. Here's the
correct one:

<https://i.redd.it/h6c59tfyjzv61.jpg>

[[e-mail]]

On Thursday, 29 April 2021 at 12:36:39 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

kw

Post by John Larkin
...

[John Larkin]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 10:41:41 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Ahh, so they like their EV to the extent they keep it.

That also sounds like a good endorsement.

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

But only about 1 million in total - EVs sold over 3 million in 2020 with sales increasing every year.

kw

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Not insurmountable but I think it's likely if it comes to pass it will
be built overseas. Musk may even have to get in there and whip those
Chinese slaves himself to get the job done but he's shown he's
definitely not above getting his hands dirty when required.

[John Larkin]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Post by bitrex
Not insurmountable but I think it's likely if it comes to pass it will
be built overseas. Musk may even have to get in there and whip those
Chinese slaves himself to get the job done but he's shown he's
definitely not above getting his hands dirty when required.

And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

[bitrex]

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.

Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

Loss-leaders to "extend market dominance" is a risky gamble at the best
of times, sometimes it work out like Microsoft, most of the time it work
out like the PC jr.

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
Not insurmountable but I think it's likely if it comes to pass it will
be built overseas. Musk may even have to get in there and whip those
Chinese slaves himself to get the job done but he's shown he's
definitely not above getting his hands dirty when required.

And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.
Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

A company like Tesla understands the market better than you do. They also know the technology better than you. Then there is the fact that the company continues to make profits and grow exponentially. That would be very hard to do if they were loosing money on every car they sell.

Check out their financials. The cash on hand continues to grow as they build more and more factories.

I only wish I could be so poor.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.
Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

A company like Tesla understands the market better than you do. They also know the technology better than you. Then there is the fact that the company continues to make profits and grow exponentially. That would be very hard to do if they were loosing money on every car they sell.
Check out their financials. The cash on hand continues to grow as they build more and more factories.
I only wish I could be so poor.

If these trends continue...EYYYYY!

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.
Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

A company like Tesla understands the market better than you do. They also know the technology better than you. Then there is the fact that the company continues to make profits and grow exponentially. That would be very hard to do if they were loosing money on every car they sell.
Check out their financials. The cash on hand continues to grow as they build more and more factories.
I only wish I could be so poor.

I'm sure someone at Tesla understands the market better than I do. I
dunno if mr. "We will coup anyone we want, deal with it" understands it.

He doesn't seem to understand how to resemble a normally-functioning
human very well at least, so how he would understand what they would
want is an open question for me

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.
Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

A company like Tesla understands the market better than you do. They also know the technology better than you. Then there is the fact that the company continues to make profits and grow exponentially. That would be very hard to do if they were loosing money on every car they sell.
Check out their financials. The cash on hand continues to grow as they build more and more factories.
I only wish I could be so poor.

I'm sure someone at Tesla understands the market better than I do. I
dunno if mr. "We will coup anyone we want, deal with it" understands it.
He doesn't seem to understand how to resemble a normally-functioning
human very well at least, so how he would understand what they would
want is an open question for me

I think there are a few billion reasons why he probably understands a lot of things better than you.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by bitrex

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex

Post by John Larkin

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin
I read that about 20% of electric car owners buy a ic-engine
replacement.

Ahh - so 80% of EV buyers like them so much they keep buying them...

Or they keep the one they have.

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
Sounds like a pretty good endorsement.

People bought PT Cruisers too.

I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Yeah, there's a theory of business that you have to not lose money on
every sale before you can make it up in volume.
Planning a product that will undoubtedly have lower margins when you're
already having some trouble with the higher-priced line in a market
segment getting flooded with me-toos doesn't seem like a sure-fire
recipe for success.

A company like Tesla understands the market better than you do. They also know the technology better than you. Then there is the fact that the company continues to make profits and grow exponentially. That would be very hard to do if they were loosing money on every car they sell.
Check out their financials. The cash on hand continues to grow as they build more and more factories.
I only wish I could be so poor.

I'm sure someone at Tesla understands the market better than I do. I
dunno if mr. "We will coup anyone we want, deal with it" understands it.
He doesn't seem to understand how to resemble a normally-functioning
human very well at least, so how he would understand what they would
want is an open question for me

I think there are a few billion reasons why he probably understands a lot of things better than you.

How quick Rick C turns into John L when the critique is pointed at one
of his personal heroes instead of Donald J Trump.

Maybe you didn't get the memo:

<https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Kill%20your%20idols>

[Rick C]

Post by bitrex

Post by Rick C
I think there are a few billion reasons why he probably understands a lot of things better than you.

How quick Rick C turns into John L when the critique is pointed at one
of his personal heroes instead of Donald J Trump.

No, not John L, anything but that!!!

Actually, I'm no Musk fan. I Just think your ideas of the auto world are pretty poor, so it's not hard for Musk to be a better thinker.

Oh, and can you trim a post once in awhile?

[[e-mail]]

On Friday, 30 April 2021 at 12:17:31 UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Depends on what you mean.

Tesla is not losing money on car sales but it is investing a great deal for the future.

https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-margin-is-35-and-it-can-double/

...

Post by John Larkin
And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

That's ok - Tesla manufactures many of its cars in their Shanghai factory. China is the world's largest market for EVs.

The Tesla Model S and Ric's Model X did not use any rare earths in their induction motors until the recent motor change. Even there Tesla has some innovations that reduce the amount used.

Post by John Larkin
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

China produces more solar power than anybody else.

kw

[Rick C]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Depends on what you mean.
Tesla is not losing money on car sales but it is investing a great deal for the future.
https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-margin-is-35-and-it-can-double/
...

Post by John Larkin
And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

That's ok - Tesla manufactures many of its cars in their Shanghai factory. China is the world's largest market for EVs.
The Tesla Model S and Ric's Model X did not use any rare earths in their induction motors until the recent motor change. Even there Tesla has some innovations that reduce the amount used.

Post by John Larkin
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

China produces more solar power than anybody else.

I don't know why you mentions rare earth metals. They are not rare and they are not expensive. China has priced themselves into world dominance of supply, but as soon as they make them painful to buy the US will reopen the mines that were closed when China was undercutting everyone. Then we can sell to Tesla to build cars in China.

[Lasse Langwadt Christensen]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Depends on what you mean.
Tesla is not losing money on car sales but it is investing a great deal for the future.
https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-margin-is-35-and-it-can-double/
...

Post by John Larkin
And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

That's ok - Tesla manufactures many of its cars in their Shanghai factory. China is the world's largest market for EVs.
The Tesla Model S and Ric's Model X did not use any rare earths in their induction motors until the recent motor change. Even there Tesla has some innovations that reduce the amount used.

Post by John Larkin
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

China produces more solar power than anybody else.

I don't know why you mentions rare earth metals. They are not rare and they are not expensive. China has priced themselves into world dominance of supply, but as soon as they make them painful to buy the US will reopen the mines that were closed when China was undercutting everyone. Then we can sell to Tesla to build cars in China.

rare because there is not very much of it per volume of dirt you dig up, so the process of digging and separating is cumbersome and messy,
so it might not be easy to get the environmental permits to reopen a mine

[Rick C]

Post by Lasse Langwadt Christensen

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Depends on what you mean.
Tesla is not losing money on car sales but it is investing a great deal for the future.
https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-margin-is-35-and-it-can-double/
...

Post by John Larkin
And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

That's ok - Tesla manufactures many of its cars in their Shanghai factory. China is the world's largest market for EVs.
The Tesla Model S and Ric's Model X did not use any rare earths in their induction motors until the recent motor change. Even there Tesla has some innovations that reduce the amount used.

Post by John Larkin
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

China produces more solar power than anybody else.

I don't know why you mentions rare earth metals. They are not rare and they are not expensive. China has priced themselves into world dominance of supply, but as soon as they make them painful to buy the US will reopen the mines that were closed when China was undercutting everyone. Then we can sell to Tesla to build cars in China.

rare because there is not very much of it per volume of dirt you dig up, so the process of digging and separating is cumbersome and messy,
so it might not be easy to get the environmental permits to reopen a mine

That's not a problem. The places where they get the dirt is not an issue. The concerns are about the thorium that comes with the rare earths. That's also not a big deal, but people get wigged out about anything radioactive. Still that's just a matter of not spreading it around.

[bitrex]

Post by Lasse Langwadt Christensen

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
...

Post by John Larkin

Post by bitrex
I think Tesla will find it's a lot more difficult going from a $35,000
EV to a $25,000 EV that Americans want to buy, than it is going from a
$45,000 one to a $35,000 one. He's understandably vague about those
plans at the present time.

Tesla is losing money on cars now.

Depends on what you mean.
Tesla is not losing money on car sales but it is investing a great deal for the future.
https://thenextavenue.com/2020/06/10/teslas-model-3-profit-margin-is-35-and-it-can-double/
...

Post by John Larkin
And asian sources will undercut him when/if volumes go up. Asian
sources with rare earths.

That's ok - Tesla manufactures many of its cars in their Shanghai factory. China is the world's largest market for EVs.
The Tesla Model S and Ric's Model X did not use any rare earths in their induction motors until the recent motor change. Even there Tesla has some innovations that reduce the amount used.

Post by John Larkin
Australia will sell them the coal to run the factories.

China produces more solar power than anybody else.

I don't know why you mentions rare earth metals. They are not rare and they are not expensive. China has priced themselves into world dominance of supply, but as soon as they make them painful to buy the US will reopen the mines that were closed when China was undercutting everyone. Then we can sell to Tesla to build cars in China.

rare because there is not very much of it per volume of dirt you dig up, so the process of digging and separating is cumbersome and messy,
so it might not be easy to get the environmental permits to reopen a mine

If any practical problems with an economy of scale seems insurmountable,
Tesla will overcome it. Due to their economy of scale.

[chris]

Post by ***@kjwdesigns.com
China produces more solar power than anybody else.
kw

So what ?.

Perhaps, but that hasn't stopped them from building one
or more coal fired power stations per week, and will do
so well into the 2030's. They are also steadily and
relentlessly cornering the world market in rare earth
and other minerals. Only the blind could miss the danger
in all that.

You can't isolate the energy revolution from world
politics, not to mention human rights violations,
but of course, in the world of the heavenly green agenda,
the end always justifies the means, right ?...

[Mike Coon]

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
do something similar...

[Ed Lee]

Post by Mike Coon

Post by Ed Lee

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"

Why doesn't it make some noise?
1. A young lady was walking slowly in the middle of the road. I had to drive as slowly as she walk.
2. An old lady was standing in front of my parked car, looking forward. I had to move slowly back and forth couple of time to catch her attention. Even my backing sound did not catch her attention.
I was told to resist using the horn, which is not too polite for pedestrian.
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
do something similar...

Or just adjustable volume. At close range, horn is very annoying for pedestrian. I am aware of an assault with a deadly weapon case from pedestrian started with the driver horning.

[Martin Brown]

Post by Mike Coon

Post by Ed Lee
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently
without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.

Post by Mike Coon
Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
do something similar...

In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to
flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always
work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for
quite a while.

[Rick C]

Post by Martin Brown

Post by Mike Coon

Post by Ed Lee
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently
without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.

Post by Mike Coon
Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
do something similar...

In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to
flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always
work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for
quite a while.

That's the sort of update Tesla should be pushing to cars instead of making fart sounds.

[bitrex]

Post by Rick C

Post by Martin Brown

Post by Mike Coon

Post by Ed Lee
I need an ICE engine noise simulator.

It is a bit unnerving when an electric vehicle moves off silently
without warning in a carpark if you haven't spotted the driver inside.

Post by Mike Coon
Why can't the "horn" make an apologetic cough? I'm sure I've had engines
do something similar...

In some parts of rural UK police cars can make a "sheepdog" noise to
flush sheep off the open moorland road ahead of them. It doesn't always
work as some sheep are stupid enough to go straight along the road for
quite a while.

That's the sort of update Tesla should be pushing to cars instead of making fart sounds.

If anything the Model 3 is not too revolutionary. It's too stodgy. The
sedan body style is dead...

If they want to be successful selling a $25,000 EV a stripped-stripped
down Model 3 won't cut it. Keep the Autopilot and what portion of the
powertrain they can. Gut the rest. Yeah, even the steering wheel if
regulations let them get away with it. Only old people want a wheel like
their granpa had.

[Chris Jones]

Post by Rick C
Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

[John Larkin]

On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones

Post by Chris Jones

Post by Rick C
Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?

Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

Gas costs so much in europe because the price is mostly tax. That guy
is cheap and wants free energy. Reminds me of some people here.

US politicians are worried about electrics not paying gas tax, so they
want to tax miles driven too. Simultaneously subsidizing electrics!

[u***@downunder.com]

On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:22:11 -0700, John Larkin

Post by John Larkin
On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones

Post by Chris Jones

Post by Rick C
Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?
Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

At least in cold climate a car with a catalysator smells bad during
the first minutes after startup.

[bitrex]

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:22:11 -0700, John Larkin

Post by John Larkin
On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones

Post by Chris Jones

Post by Rick C
Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10 blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe? Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?
Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

At least in cold climate a car with a catalysator smells bad during
the first minutes after startup.

I think transport will go predominantly electric...eventually....but
dreams of "exponential growth" of Tesla Inc selling millions of $35,000
or $25,000 EV sedans and $45,000 Cybertrucks a year domestically are
fever dreams.

The average age of a car on the road in the US is 12 years, 50% of the
cars I see on the road are F-150s and 2008 Toyota Priuses and Siennas
and 2013 Rav-4s and various beaters worth about $4000...the market's
not there...

[chris]

Post by bitrex

Post by u***@downunder.com
On Fri, 30 Apr 2021 10:22:11 -0700, John Larkin

Post by John Larkin
On Sat, 1 May 2021 00:32:37 +1000, Chris Jones

Post by Chris Jones

Everything is perspective. If EVs were the norm with virtually
every home having level 2 charging available and everyone using the
same charging interface, imagine what it would be like to have to
switch to ICE.
"Oil change? Why does the oil need to be changed, what's wrong with
it? Isn't that a warranty repair?"
" I have to go where to find fuel for the car? That's at least 10
blocks!"
"Why does it make so much noise?"
"Why does it smell so bad? Can I just plug up that exhaust pipe?
Maybe those fumes should be captured rather than set free in the air?"

https://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/

That's bizarre, and terrible writing too. Is it from 50 years ago?
Modern cars don't smell bad or to any of that imaginary stuff. And
they refuel in 5 minutes, every couple hundred miles.

At least in cold climate a car with a catalysator smells bad during
the first minutes after startup.

I think transport will go predominantly electric...eventually....but
dreams of "exponential growth" of Tesla Inc selling millions of $35,000
or $25,000 EV sedans and $45,000 Cybertrucks a year domestically are
fever dreams.

No problem going electric and would probably run one now if it wasn't
for the expense, but we are being consistently lied to by campaigners
and politicians w/regard to how easy and quick it will be.

It will be expensive, disruptive and take decades to get together.
Promises that it can be completed by 2030, or even 2035 are pure
fantasy, but I guess it's good to get started.

Interesting program on TV recently, "The Dark cost of Green Energy"
basically saying that it just shifts the pollution to other parts of
the world. How rare earth elements will disrupt the global power
balance towards conflict and war. Not sure I accept all of it, but
there are limits to such resources, just as there are with fossil
fuels.

Post by bitrex
The average age of a car on the road in the US is 12 years, 50% of the
cars I see on the road are F-150s and 2008 Toyota Priuses and Siennas
and 2013 Rav-4s and various beaters worth about $4000...the market's not
there...