On Tue, 03 Jul 2012 20:49:24 -0700, Fred J. McCall
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornNot the big shiny easy-to-see radiators Jeff was alluding to.
And they're nowhere near anything that would warm them up, which
something near the Earth would be.
Except for their flights through the neighborhood of Venus, half the
distance between Earth and Sun, you mean?
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPegasus is 4 feet in diameter. That could provide a mirror about 40
inches in diameter with room to spare for casing and payload fairing.
But isn't.
Uh, what isn't? Are you saying Pegasus isn't 4 feet in diameter? It is
4.1 ft according to Orbital.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallOne more time, RESOLUTION IS LIMITED BY THE SIZE OF THE PRIMARY LENS.
A 40-inch mirror is substantial.
None of the vehicles called out have anything remotely approaching a
40 inch mirror.
So? I'm pointing out what is possible with existing vehicles. We are
talking about hypotheticals here. Hypothetically, Pegasus could launch
a satellite with a primary mirror 40 inches in diameter. That would
leave about ten inches of margin for the telescope frame itself and
the payload fairing, which is ample.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornThe public doesn't have radar.
But lots of other folks do.
Not as extensive as you suggest. Air France Flight 440 vanished
without a trace because it was beyond radar coverage in the middle of
the Atlantic.
A bit lower than a satellite.
So are rockets during the boost phase. We were talking about
*launches* that wouldn't be noticed, remember.
The comment was "lot of other folks do" have radar. Please identify
the radar system over the south Atlantic or sourthern Indian Ocean, or
central/southern Pacific that would detect launches from the
Ascension, Diego Garcia, or Kwajalein areas.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallWho do you think the 'secret' is trying
to be kept from?
The same people they're keeping the nature of X-37B or the recent NROL
launches from? If the Russians and Chinese know all about what NRO is
launching, why does NRO still keep it secret? From whom?
The Russians and Chinese DON'T.
Then why do you assume they WOULD know all about a clandestine
satellite program? You can't have it both ways, Fred.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallSilly idea. Again, just who do you think the 'secret' is being kept
from?
Iran/Iraq/Afghanistan/North Korea are good candidates.
Silly.
I'll point out that Iran recently forced down one of our UAVs that was
"accidentally" over its territory.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallOh? Just what 'useful mission' do you think you can squeeze into a
one cubic foot satellite?
Pegasus is publicly known to have a 4 ft x 7 ft. payload
accommodation. Hardly "one cubic foot". And Pegasus is known to have
launched Earth observation satellites.
You said "small". You didn't say "the biggest thing Pegasus can
launch".
No, I never said small. Jeff said 'tiny' and you went off on some
weird tangent about 1 cubic foot of payload (a number you evidently
pulled out of some body oriface not to be named). I pointed out
OrbView as not being huge, and OrbView was launched on Pegasus. And I
did indeed say the biggest thing Pegasus could launch, when I said
Pegasus could handle a mirror 40" diameter. Do keep up, Fred. :-)
And while we're on the subject, there is no reason to believe Pegasus
is the biggest option for air-launched spacecraft. The Air Force
dropped Minutemen missiles out the back of a C-141 in the early 1980s
to demonstrate air-launched MX ICBMs. There is absolutely no reason to
believe an Athena-like launcher (derived from MX) could not also be
shoved out the back of a C-17 or C-5, and there is still the strangley
modified C-5 (with the extended "cheeks") that was seen in the 1990s.
Post by Fred J. McCallThere's a reason they do what they do. And what they do is NOT launch
little tiny birds very low.
I've acknowledged all along that I don't know the reasons for this
hypothetical clandestine space launch. I've only insisted that if they
did have a reason, it clearly is not impossible. DoD/NRO is notorious
for not giving reasons for what they do (i.e, X-37B.)
But in any case, you just can't say that, Fred. We know very little
about what DoD/NRO does in space, why, or how. We know they've
launched secret things on Atlas and Titan, and one or two Delta IIs.
What was actually under the payload fairing is not publicly known.
What we do know from publicly released information from the FIA
(Future Imaging Architecture) debacle is that they were interested in
spy satellites much smaller than the KH-11s (which needed expensive
and unreliable Titan rockets to launch) as early as the early 1990s.
We also know that NRO recently gave NASA two KH-11/Hubble class
telescopes. If they're giving away big telescopes, with what did NRO
replace them?
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallNone of that is the same thing. Look at the ground view footprint for
something going up into space.
Something deployed from Ascension or the Azores, or Diego Garcia, or
Kwajalein, or Kodiak? Nothing but remote ocean downrange for thousands
of miles.
Go do the math and tell me what the ground footprint of visibility is.
Of the boost phase... about 500 miles long and perhaps 200 miles each
side of the ground track, depending on altitude and day/night
differences. From personal experience, I can tell you that day
launches are almost invisible after first stage. Night launches are
visible longer, but you have to be deliberately looking. That was the
range from Shuttle liftoff to SSME cutoff and ET seperation off Cape
Hatteras or the Chesapeake region or somewhere close by on ISS
missions according to numerous "see the Shuttle night launch"
websites. Now you break out an atlas and show me what is along a line
500 miles long and 200 miles wide from Kwajalein, Diego Garcia, or
Ascenscion, what radars cover that area, and what populated areas
would provide shelter for eyewitnesses.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallA 'brief trail' that was how long and visible from how many thousand
square miles?
200 miles away from Ascension? Who would see it? That's about where AF
Flight 440 disappeared without a trace. No one saw it, it took two
years to find it. Diego Garcia is even better, with nothing south of
it except Antarctica.
FLIGHT 440 WAS AN ****AIRPLANE****, YOU YAMMERHEAD!!!!!!!!
Yes, I know Fred. I'm talking about air launch from something like
Orbital's L-1011 which is an ****AIRPLANE****. My point is, exactly
what radar installation would detect a Pegasus/L-1011 launch staged
from Ascension and heading due south? You seem unwilling or unable to
answer that question.
And I think Diego Garcia (a military base with no civilians
whatsoever) is an even better candidate. I was just using Ascension
because of the highly public acknowledgement that there is no radar
out there whatsoever, neither U.S., Brazilian, nor European. So whose
radar would detect a spacelaunch out there, Fred, the Angolans's
secret space tracking radar? Why do you get to invoke secret hardware,
but I don't?
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornWell, the only photos I've seen of STS-135 beyond the first thirty
seconds (I was 20 miles away and only saw it from about T+15 to T+30)
were from some woman on an airliner, where you see a thin trail rising
in the distance above an infinite cloud deck. And I'm really not
arguing that such a secret launch would have been from Canaveral or
Vandenberg anyway, much too difficult to conceal. But a Pegasus or
something similar, air-launched at sea hundreds of miles from base?
Not so easily dismissed.
Sorry, but your anecdote isn't particularly convincing.
Shocked. Shocked I am that evidence counter to your assertion is
dismissed out of hand. Shocked!
I grew up watcing space launches from the Cape Canaveral area, Fred.
How many space launches have you witnessed?
By the way, I have the photos to prove all three of the launches I
mentioned. Look up bthorn on Webshots.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallANY evidence for 'Blackstar'? AvLeak is just a magazine, after all.
They're the pros, though. They talked about the Stealth Fighter years
before the Air Force acknowledged it.
And were wrong about so many details.
Irrelevant. I'm not arguing the details (which almost certainly are
wrong, I freely admit) only that there have been public reports of
secret programs later proven to be true.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornI'm just pointing out that the
idea does not seem to be universally ridiculed or dismissed as typical
conspiracy theory fodder, which Jeff was implying (in my opinion, I
could be wrong.)
It's loon food.
Very possibly. I've argued from the beginning that this is all
theorerically possible with hardware and systems known to exist today,
nothing more.
So far you have been completely unable to refute my arguments, making
up false data ("one cubic foot satellite"), putting words in my mouth
that were not there ("small satellite, not the biggest Pegasus could
launch") invoking radar systems that don't exist in your attempt to
prove a launch would be seen on radar everywhere on Earth, completely
ignoring that SeaWIFS and Orbview are Pegasus-launched Earth
observation satellites with quite good resolution, and handwaving away
what even you admit must be a secret aircraft/exoatmospheric craft
capable of Mach 5 and 90,000 ft. (which will be blockbuster news in
the aerospace community when/if the DoD ever acknowledges it.)
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornI agree. The problem for your argument is that the DoD has no publicly
acknowledge system capable of Mach 5 at 90,000 feet, except a few
sounding rockets and the like, but no rocket launches were announced
at those times and you say they can't hide a rocket launch. If they
can indefinitely conceal a Mach 5, 90,000 ft. capable system, why are
you so dismissive of a clandestine orbital system?
If you know of a way to get a small vehicle doing Mach 5 up to orbit,
please let us all know.
I'll note you once again failed to answer my question.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornAnd Mach 5 at 90,000 feet sounds very much like a returning Shuttle to
me. "Much smaller" is totally in keeping with what I'm suggesting is
possible.
No, it was nothing at all like what a Shuttle produced.
Perhaps, but USGS said it was "very reminiscent of Shuttle" or words
to that effect.
Post by Fred J. McCallPost by Brian ThornPost by Fred J. McCallWho do you assume we'd be trying to keep a 'secret space program'
secret FROM?
That's not the point.
That *IS* the point, unless you assume we're insane.
No, the point is that you and Jeff claim that a secret space launch is
IMPOSSIBLE. I'm not addressing the why's, only that it certainly is
POSSIBLE, and without invoking magic pixie dust either. It would be
more or less off-the-shelf capabilty.
Post by Fred J. McCallGive what you're spewing, I'm afraid what you find ludicrous just
doesn't carry a lot of weight with sane folks.
I respect you too, Fred.
Post by Fred J. McCallSquealing "Devil's Advocate"
Squealed? I said calmly and in forewarning from the first line of my
first reply that I am just playing Devil's (Bob's) Advocate.
Post by Fred J. McCallto try to avoid having to make sense is merely specious.
For a specious argument, you sure are having a difficult time refuting
it. You could start by actually addressing my points, instead of
ignoring them, misstating them, or dismissing them with one-liners.
Brian